Firstly, Napao is much better than when he fought Kevin Jordan and Werdum.
He has decent standup, heavy hands, sick jits. His GNP on Mirko is what softened him up for the headkick.
In the past, Randy has performed poorly against larger ground fighters (see Josh Barnett and Ricco Rodriguez fights) Napao's jits skills are much better than Randy's. If Randy can get top, I believe he will ride out a decision or get a late round TKO over Napao. If they fight in striking range, I see Napao clipping Randy, taking it to the ground and submitting him. If Randy can keep the fight in the clinch, I see Randy dirtyboxing, tiring Napao and getting a fourth or fifth round TKO.
I want Randy to win, but Napao is well rounded, big and strong.