She's on fire.
Oct 6, 12:06 PM EDT
Analysis: Clinton extending her lead By BETH FOUHY
Associated Press Writer
NEW YORK (AP) -- Hillary Rodham Clinton has strengthened her position as the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. But her strong showing nationally belies a much closer race in Iowa, where she is in a tight three-way contest with Barack Obama and John Edwards.
A new AP-Ipsos poll shows Clinton ahead of Obama, her closest rival, by more than 20 points - 46 percent to 25 percent.
The rest of the field is in single digits: Edwards, a former North Carolina senator pulled in 9 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden each had 2 percent and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd 1 percent.
Only Clinton and Obama have the deep financial resources to compete in the early contests and in the crush of big states holding primaries Feb. 5.
The rest of the candidates are redoubling their efforts in Iowa, hoping a good showing there will give them a "bounce" into the later states. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 14; they are all but certain to move up.
A closer look at the AP-Ipsos poll:
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CLINTON: The New York senator draws support from women, blacks and voters without a college degree. She has neutralized what was expected to be a major liability - her vote in favor of the Iraq war. She no longer is heckled on the campaign trail for that vote and has managed to persuade many anti-war Democrats that she would move quickly to end the conflict as president.
Clinton has worked hard to convince voters that she is not the brittle, calculating figure she long has been portrayed. While she does not have the intuitive campaign skills of her husband, voters say she has impressed them with her warmth, ready smile and willingness to spend hours taking questions, chatting and shaking hands. A bona fide celebrity, Clinton never tires of posing for cell-phone photos with starry-eyed fans.
She still has obstacles to surmount before winning her party's nomination. She must convince skeptical Democrats eager to reclaim the White House that she can win a general election. She must walk a fine line between embracing her husband's legacy and projecting independence and an ability to bring change to Washington.
Most important, she must win or come in a close second in Iowa; otherwise, her sense of inevitability will vanish.
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OBAMA: Despite his charisma, crowd appeal and early opposition to the Iraq war, the Illinois senator's support has remained essentially flat for months and has begun to drop in some key areas.
He is popular among upscale, educated voters, but the poll indicates Clinton still holds a 12-point lead in that group. While he hopes to be the first black president, and his strategy relies in part on blacks coming out for him, his support among black voters has dropped by 5 percentage points since the last survey.
Obama still has strengths to draw on as the race enters its final stretch. He has significant financial resources to invest heavily in the early states. His message of hope and change resonates among voters eager to move on from the hyper-partisan Bush and Clinton years. His strong field operation in Iowa makes him highly competitive there.
But the freshman senator has liabilities, especially the lingering concern among many voters that he lacks the experience necessary to govern in a dangerous world. He can be somewhat remote and chilly as a campaigner, making an intellectual connection with voters rather than an emotional one. He has been known to cut off voters when their questions go on too long and can appear weary of the endless glad-handing and other rituals of retail politics.
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EDWARDS: While his national numbers show him badly trailing Clinton and Obama, Edwards remains strong in Iowa and is counting on a good showing there to fuel momentum in other states.
The multimillionaire lawyer has adopted a tough, populist tone, pledging to fight poverty and challenging members of Congress to refuse health insurance until they pass a law to bring coverage to everyone. He has railed against lobbyists and other Beltway power brokers, and has gone further than other candidates in depicting Clinton as a charter member of the Washington establishment.
Edwards has deployed his popular wife, Elizabeth, to take on Clinton more directly than he can. Among other things, Elizabeth Edwards has said Clinton is too polarizing to be elected and would not be a strong champion for women in the White House.
But Edwards faces formidable challenges. He has had to compete with Obama to position himself as the strongest "anti-Clinton" candidate in the field; that is a difficult task given Obama's celebrity and record fundraising success. Edwards' own fundraising has lagged, and he recently announced he would accept federal matching funds, which will limit what he can spend in each state. He has little campaign infrastructure outside Iowa and his candidacy probably cannot survive a defeat there.
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THE REST:
The other Democratic contenders have struggled in a race so dominated by the top tier. Richardson has built a relatively strong organization in Iowa and is counting on his long resume in Washington and as a Western state governor to win over voters. Biden and Dodd have recently directed their limited campaign resources almost entirely to Iowa, where they are hoping for one of the front-runners to slip and allow an opening.
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