Author Topic: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives  (Read 993 times)

Dos Equis

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Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« on: November 08, 2007, 02:36:59 PM »
Not much has changed. 

Nov 8, 5:09 PM EST

Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives

By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON
Associated Press Writers
 
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rudy Giuliani is doing so well among conservatives that even those who don't back his presidential bid turn to him in strong numbers when asked to name their second choice, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed Thursday.

In the latest evidence of the former New York mayor's strength among the Republican Party's right wing, one-third of the conservatives supporting his rivals made him their pick when asked to choose an alternative, considerably more than anyone else.

Overall among Republicans and GOP-leaning voters, Giuliani is the favored candidate of 29 percent, followed by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's 19 percent, this week's AP-Ipsos poll showed. Arizona Sen. John McCain was next at 13 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had 12 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had 10 percent.

The poll, released a day after Giuliani's endorsement by televangelist Pat Robertson, showed the New Yorker holding his own among the reddest of red-state voters. He was slightly ahead of Thompson among Southerners, and even with him among white men, married men, older men, evangelicals and conservatives.

Giuliani, assailed by some on the right for his moderate stances on abortion, gays and guns, was the second choice of 33 percent of the conservatives who did not make him their top pick. An additional 19 percent took McCain as their backup selection, while Romney got 15 percent, Thompson 14 percent and Huckabee 13 percent.

With the first primary votes less than two months away, the figures underline the difficulties Giuliani's foes may face in prying conservative support away from him.

Thompson pollster John McLaughlin said Thompson was only now beginning to spend heavily on television commercials in early states, adding, "You'll start seeing some of these numbers move now."

Kevin Madden, a Romney spokesman, said polling at this stage reflects name recognition.

"Right now our concern is our standing in the early primary states," he said. Romney leads in most polls in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

The survey showed that though Giuliani has not pulled away from the pack, Thompson has yet to surpass the one-fifth of GOP voters he has been attracting since the summer.

"Republicans across the board are supporting the experienced candidate who actually sticks with his positions and has used conservative principles to get results," said Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton maintained a 2-to-1 lead over her nearest rival despite fallout over last week's Democratic presidential debate, according to the poll.

Clinton, the New York senator, was ahead of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois 45 percent to 22 percent, about the same as her margin last month. John Edwards had 12 percent.

The survey was taken days after a televised Oct. 30 Democratic debate in which Clinton avoided giving specific answers to several questions and her opponents repeatedly challenged her candor and character. Her campaign spent several days after that accusing the rivals of piling on.

Clinton holds a commanding 48 percent to 19 percent lead over Obama among women. Her lead is 41 percent to 27 percent over Obama among men.

The poll involved telephone interviews with 1,001 adults conducted from Nov. 5-7 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

It included results for 474 Democrats for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.5 points, and 361 Republicans for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
 
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/P/PRESIDENTIAL_RACE_AP_POLL?SITE=HIHAD&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Hugo Chavez

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2007, 03:04:00 PM »
check pollingreport.com  good source to keep up daily.  Ron Paul was under 1 percent last time we talked abougt it, he's at 4 in many polls.  and again for reasons noted, I suspect this number is way off.  I would not be shocked if he's actually more around 15% or better.  He's amassed quite a new following that wouldn't show up in a polling of registered republicans.  again, I'm thinking he's bringing a lot of new voters registering republican to vote for him in the primary.  We'll see, I'm betting he gets way more of the vote than you think.

Dos Equis

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2007, 03:14:39 PM »
check pollingreport.com  good source to keep up daily.  Ron Paul was under 1 percent last time we talked abougt it, he's at 4 in many polls.  and again for reasons noted, I suspect this number is way off.  I would not be shocked if he's actually more around 15% or better.  He's amassed quite a new following that wouldn't show up in a polling of registered republicans.  again, I'm thinking he's bringing a lot of new voters registering republican to vote for him in the primary.  We'll see, I'm betting he gets way more of the vote than you think.

Good site.  I've looked at it before.  It currently shows Ron Paul at 4 percent, about double what he has been getting.  Still, that is last among Republican candidates and even less than "Other" (6 percent). 

Barring some miracle, I think he will get about what the polls have shown.  Fifteen percent would put him right around second place.  Anything is possible, but I don't see that happening. 

Livewire

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2007, 04:43:55 PM »
Berserker and Beach Bum,

Can either of you calculate his money earned as % of total republican money earned?

Let em explain...

Like, if Romney and Guiliant each got ten million, and they're getting 20% each...
then if Ron paul gets $7 mil, does that mean he is at 14%?


In other words -

Wouldn't the money pretty much reflect the popularity?  Especially the military vote. Do they have absentee primary voting?  Paul would clean up in that
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Dos Equis

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2007, 05:19:48 PM »
No idea.  I doubt his war chest is either comparable to those of Rudy, Romney, or Thompson (or even McCain).  I also doubt he has raised enough money to run an effective 50-state campaign. 

Livewire

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2007, 05:30:49 PM »
No idea.  I doubt his war chest is either comparable to those of Rudy, Romney, or Thompson (or even McCain).  I also doubt he has raised enough money to run an effective 50-state campaign. 

I don't think he needs to run a 50-state primary campaign.

If he pulls a rabbit out of his ass and can get top 3 in Iowa and New hampshire, we'll see everyone jump on his bandwagon and give him enough coverage.  Plus the voters are allowed to change votes if their guy gets under 10% or something I think.

I don't think he'll win, mind you.  But I do think he's the biggest X factor - the only anti-war republican.  I think if Romney went anti-war tomorrow, he'd win in a landslide. 
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Dos Equis

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2007, 05:34:18 PM »
I don't think he needs to run a 50-state primary campaign.

If he pulls a rabbit out of his ass and can get top 3 in Iowa and New hampshire, we'll see everyone jump on his bandwagon and give him enough coverage.  Plus the voters are allowed to change votes if their guy gets under 10% or something I think.

I don't think he'll win, mind you.  But I do think he's the biggest X factor - the only anti-war republican.  I think if Romney went anti-war tomorrow, he'd win in a landslide. 

Maybe, although keep in mind that both Paul Tsongas and Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary. 

Livewire

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2007, 05:40:02 PM »
Maybe, although keep in mind that both Paul Tsongas and Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary. 

touche!

they were supposed to, though.  If ron paul or huckabee win it, look out.  Will be upset headline of the year.
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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2007, 06:51:19 PM »
Repubs will *settle* for Rudy if they select him.

Hugo Chavez

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2007, 07:12:57 PM »
Repubs will *settle* for Rudy if they select him.
might take a 4 year vacation in Canaduh if he wins.  I'll have to clean out a few Canadian cock-ah-roaches... but I should be able to find some nice fishing holes :)

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2007, 09:41:07 PM »
How about the retards in the Christian Right Wing of the Republican Party takes a poll of the swing voters, tries to look at the reality: Do they want Clinton to win the presidency or should they back a candidate that has a chance of beating her?

I cannot understand how this is even an issue in the Republican Party? Right now, they need someone who holds similar values to Democrats on several issues. Otherwise they will get absolutely raped in the election. All Clinton has to do, is to point at her husband's economic success during his presidency, and compare that to the budget deficit and national debt during the Bush years.

And then ask America: Do you want the Clinton years back?

And I think that most people will answer yes to that question. If the alternative is a Republican who is perceived as fundamentalist.


For the GOP it boils down to this IMO: Better a Republican in office than a Democrat.
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Hugo Chavez

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Re: Giuliani 2nd pick of many conservatives
« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2007, 10:36:24 PM »
How about the retards in the Christian Right Wing of the Republican Party takes a poll of the swing voters, tries to look at the reality: Do they want Clinton to win the presidency or should they back a candidate that has a chance of beating her?

I cannot understand how this is even an issue in the Republican Party? Right now, they need someone who holds similar values to Democrats on several issues. Otherwise they will get absolutely raped in the election. All Clinton has to do, is to point at her husband's economic success during his presidency, and compare that to the budget deficit and national debt during the Bush years.

And then ask America: Do you want the Clinton years back?

And I think that most people will answer yes to that question. If the alternative is a Republican who is perceived as fundamentalist.


For the GOP it boils down to this IMO: Better a Republican in office than a Democrat.

"White suburban evangelicals, once the bedrock of the Republican party, are having a crisis of faith. None of the potential candidates for the 2008 elections has proved inspirational and one - Mr Giuliani - is provoking the threat of wide scale defection... Christian conservative leaders have threatened to support a third-party candidate if Mr Giuliani wins the nomination " http://www.buzzle.com/articles/156901.html

Giuliani was desperate to woo evangelicals...  Somehow he picked up Pat Robertson, I'm sure he jumped with excitement... Only it backfired, bigtime...  Pat has turned so extremist loony toons that he had other evangelical leaders rolling their eyes.  Above all, Mr. 911 Giuliani showed everyone his true colors with this move...  Pat Robertson joined Jerry Falwell in the following, which with Giuliani's stance on things, should have had him thinking twice before accepting an alliance with Pat.  The whole country rolled their eyes at this latest move... backfire...

JERRY FALWELL: And I agree totally with you that the Lord has protected us so wonderfully these 225 years. And since 1812, this is the first time that we've been attacked on our soil and by far the worst results. And I fear, as Donald Rumsfeld, the Secretary of Defense, said yesterday, that this is only the beginning. And with biological warfare available to these monsters -- the Husseins, the Bin Ladens, the Arafats -- what we saw on Tuesday, as terrible as it is, could be miniscule if, in fact -- if, in fact -- God continues to lift the curtain and allow the enemies of America to give us probably what we deserve.

PAT ROBERTSON: Jerry, that's my feeling. I think we've just seen the antechamber to terror. We haven't even begun to see what they can do to the major population.

JERRY FALWELL: The ACLU's got to take a lot of blame for this.

PAT ROBERTSON: Well yes.

JERRY FALWELL: And, I know that I'll hear from them for this. But, throwing God out successfully with the help of the federal court system, throwing God out of the public square, out of the schools. The abortionists have got to bear some burden for this because God will not be mocked. And when we destroy 40 million little innocent babies, we make God mad. I really believe that the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People For the American Way -- all of them who have tried to secularize America -- I point the finger in their face and say "you helped this happen."

PAT ROBERTSON: Well, I totally concur, and the problem is we have adopted that agenda at the highest levels of our government. And so we're responsible as a free society for what the top people do. And, the top people, of course, is the court system..

JERRY FALWELL: Pat, did you notice yesterday the ACLU and all the Christ-haters, People For the American Way, NOW, etc. were totally disregarded by the Democrats and the Republicans in both houses of Congress as they went out on the steps and called out on to God in prayer and sang "God Bless America" and said "let the ACLU be hanged". In other words, when the nation is on its knees, the only normal and natural and spiritual thing to do is what we ought to be doing all the time - calling upon God. ~~~

PAT ROBERTSON: > Amen