Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)  (Read 466504 times)

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #700 on: March 20, 2008, 01:30:38 PM »
goat, today (thurs) was another perfect situation for another short cover rally. with the long weekend ahead, traders tend to "square their positions" beforehand. net result, a 261 point Dow rally off this "great economic news" posted below. you'll notice the disconnect between market action and the economic news, which is typical in this type of environment. 


today's market news:



Leading indicators in 5th straight drop
The Conference Board's index down streak is the longest since 2001.


 3/20/08
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- An indicator of the economy's future performance fell for the fifth straight month in February, the first time that has happened since 2001, according to a report released Thursday.
 


 

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise to 378,000
Continuing claims hit highest level since 2004

 
3/20/08
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Continuing to signal a weak labor market, the Labor Department reported Thursday that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 22,000 to stand at 378,000 for the week ended March 15.
 
Economists see readings consistently higher than 350,000 as signaling significant weakening in the labor market, and this level has been breached since late January.
 
The claims data are "increasingly throwing off recession signals," wrote John Ryding, U.S. chief economist for Bear Stearns



NT


Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #701 on: March 20, 2008, 05:47:38 PM »

Whats crazy is that this scenario is going to start happening almost daily with other banks.   Who in the hell bought a 479,000 home anyway??     I have money, and when i walk in some of my friends homes that look like ceasars palace in vegas....I just nod my head and ask "WHY"?    Of course theyre trying to sell and are upside down now and the economy is forcing their jobs to cut back hours or layoff so they'll add to the list of foreclosures soon.
Most of these guys are 10 to 20 yrs younger than I am...emotional buyers.

You should see the area where I live, 60 year old homes trying to sell for 700,000 dollars and they are ready for a wrecking ball. I don't get it.

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #702 on: March 20, 2008, 06:03:20 PM »
You should see the area where I live, 60 year old homes trying to sell for 700,000 dollars and they are ready for a wrecking ball. I don't get it.



Wow.     You know what will happen next??   The gov will jump in to regulate the bancruptcy laws because its going to go thru the roof!!!!      Theyll cap and make it impossible for people to get out even tho they allowed them to get into a crisis.

I know the people are to blame also, but this was predatory lending at its worst.  I remember getting at least 5 peices of mail a day everyday asking me to pull out $100,000 of equity on a home i just bought 2 yrs before.......I knew that money wasnt mine... 8)

G o a t b o y

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #703 on: March 21, 2008, 08:27:17 AM »
goat, today (thurs) was another perfect situation for another short cover rally. with the long weekend ahead, traders tend to "square their positions" beforehand. net result, a 261 point Dow rally off this "great economic news" posted below. you'll notice the disconnect between market action and the economic news, which is typical in this type of environment. 


So do you think come Monday all those traders who covered will get back in short, thus driving the market down for the day?  I stayed out on Thursday, because I really didn't have a good read on what to expect.
Ron: "I am lazy."

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #704 on: March 22, 2008, 06:26:55 AM »

So do you think come Monday all those traders who covered will get back in short, thus driving the market down for the day?  I stayed out on Thursday, because I really didn't have a good read on what to expect.


goat, selling into "short cover rallies" will continue IMHO.


generally speaking during bear markets, short traders tend to take profits before the weekend to lock in profits. thursday's market action (despite more bad economic news) confirmed that's what occurred. again, typical in this type of market.




NT



 

Slapper

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #705 on: March 22, 2008, 07:38:40 AM »
I'd rather just see Bush, Cheney and the rest of the gang in jail.[...]

Well, that will not be happening. Apparently they've been hard at work covering their tracks and trying to get congress and the other crooks to sign a petition of immunity.

These are crooked individuals.

Slapper

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #706 on: March 22, 2008, 07:51:51 AM »
Neurotoxin, excuse me for getting away from the issue, but I got my ass burning seeing all these Europeans shopping at Century 21 in Manhattan, spending 5,000-10,000 per shopping spree and little old me looking out for bargains in the sales area. I know the dollar-euro exchange is 1.5-1.6 right now, but after seeing all these people spending all this money... it got me thinking: All other variables being constant, and the value of the dollar tied to the price of gold, at today's prices, wouldn't the dollar buy you 3 euros nowadays?

I swear to God I went into a Starbucks and saw a little (must've been German) kid, around 5-ish, pull out a $ 50 bill from his pocket, in front of his parents, to pay for a tofee caramel cake. I almost shit all over my pants right there!

stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #707 on: March 24, 2008, 10:26:21 AM »
Neuro,

Updates Please?


MB

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #708 on: March 24, 2008, 12:02:42 PM »
Quote
I know the people are to blame also, but this was predatory lending at its worst.  I remember getting at least 5 peices of mail a day everyday asking me to pull out $100,000 of equity on a home i just bought 2 yrs before.......I knew that money wasnt mine...

You were one of the smart ones, but I can't feel sorry for people who borrowed beyond their means.  The term "predatory lending" is just an excuse for those who didn't have enough common sense to understand their loans.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #709 on: March 25, 2008, 05:26:42 PM »
Neuro,

Updates Please?




influenza ......be back soon.




NT

G o a t b o y

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #710 on: March 25, 2008, 05:37:02 PM »

influenza ......be back soon.




NT


G o a t b o y  recently fought influenza.  I kicked its ass, too!  :D
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Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #711 on: March 25, 2008, 06:33:17 PM »
 US consumer confidence has fallen to a five-year low, according to the closely watched Conference Board report.
Its index of consumer sentiment fell this month to 64.5, its lowest showing since March 2003.

The situation was even worse regarding the Conference Board's forward-looking expectations index, which fell to 47.9, the weakest performance in 34 years.

A growing number of surveys have shown that US consumer confidence is falling sharply because of recession fears.

Interest rate pressure

"Consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's research centre.


The latest consumer confidence data may increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower US interest rates still further.

Earlier this month it cut rates to 2.25% from 3%, its sixth reduction since mid-September.

Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at Banc of America Securities, said the latest Conference Board figures were "very weak".

"I would certainly call these recession-type numbers," he said.

"Even if the financial market stabilises we are likely to see the labour market weaken for a couple of quarters."

Housing market woes

The Conference Board data comes 10 days after the separate University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level in 16 years.

The University of Michigan said its index had only previously been that low during past recessions.

US consumer sentiment has been knocked by the sharp downturn in the housing market.

Centred on the so-called sub-prime mortgage sector, record 2007 home loan defaults sparked last summer's bad mortgage debt crisis which spread to the wider credit markets.

Economic Outlook Group economist Bernard Baumohl said US consumer pessimism "reflects the great anxiety that households have because there are just so many uncertainties that everyone faces".

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #712 on: March 25, 2008, 06:35:29 PM »

US house prices fell at an annual rate of 11.4% in January, according to the latest monthly Standard & Poor's/Case-Schiller index.
This was the monthly index's biggest year-on-year decline in 21 years.

The latest snapshot of the slump in the US property market, it comes a day after the main US estate agent body said prices fell 8.2% in February.

The S&P/Case-Schiller index tracks the prices of homes in 10 major metropolitan areas across the US.

Its wider composite index, which covers prices in 20 cities, was down 10.7% in January compared with a year ago, the first time both S&P indexes had dropped by double-digit percentages.

"It shows that the housing correction is still under way," said Lehman Brothers economist Michelle Meyer.

US property prices have fallen sharply on the back of record home loan defaults centred on the sub-prime sector, which offers mortgages to people with poor credit ratings.

 

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #713 on: March 25, 2008, 08:51:52 PM »
It'll take all of this year for the housing to bottom out.  Alot of people are holding on but will give out on making a payment on a home thats upside down.  Lot s of walk aways and bancruptcys coming this year and next.

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #714 on: March 26, 2008, 03:05:26 PM »
It'll take all of this year for the housing to bottom out.  Alot of people are holding on but will give out on making a payment on a home thats upside down.  Lot s of walk aways and bancruptcys coming this year and next.


Jim Cramer says "we've hit bottom, and shorting is suicide at this point".   Seriously, that clown has made being wrong into an artform.  ;D
Ron: "I am lazy."

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #715 on: March 26, 2008, 03:21:21 PM »

Jim Cramer says "we've hit bottom, and shorting is suicide at this point".   Seriously, that clown has made being wrong into an artform.  ;D



I have no idea how that guy got his own show.....hes paid to be stupid.  Do the opposite of everything he says and youll make out like a bandit.....lol

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #716 on: March 26, 2008, 03:23:00 PM »
he's been right in the past on a lot of things.

he's a spokeman for the dollar now... convincing people to throw their $ into the market keeps it alive.  I heard it all day on CNBC today... BUY NOW... BUY NOW....   CNN money was saying the same thing.  Put all your $ into the market now!

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #717 on: March 26, 2008, 06:38:26 PM »
Citigroup shares fall on forecast 
 
Citigroup has been hard hit by the credit crisis, shares in Citigroup have slumped after a report forecast more heavy losses for US banks due to the credit crisis.
Research from fund manager Oppenheimer said that Citigroup could lose up to $13.1bn (£6.5bn; 8bn euros) in the first three months of the year.

Citigroup and other banks have lost vast sums on investments made in assets backed by US mortgages that have been hit by falling US house prices.

Citigroup shares lost almost 6%; other banks were down sharply too.

Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wachovia can also expect to see a sharp drop in their profits, according to Oppenheimer.

The report also said the situation could get worse this year.

In October the fund management company correctly predicted that Citigroup would have to cut its dividend - the payments made to shareholders - and seek extra funds.

The bank reported a $9.83bn net loss for the last three months of 2007.

Chief executive Vikram Pandit said the loss had been caused by a $18.1bn exposure to bad mortgage debt and was "clearly unacceptable".

 

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #718 on: March 26, 2008, 06:54:48 PM »
US durable goods orders declined 1.7% in February, official figures have shown, the latest indication that the US economy faces the risk of recession.
The fall surprised analysts, who had expected the latest monthly data from the Commerce Department to show a 0.8% rise for last month.

The latest manufacturing data came as separate official figures showed yet another monthly fall in US home sales.

Sales of new houses fell 1.8% last month to a 13-year low.

They declined to an annual rate of 590,000.

The figure, which was also from the Commerce Department, marked the fourth straight month that sales of new homes had declined.

'Real downturn'

Sales of durable goods - those designed to last more than three years - fell by a revised 4.7% in January.

Excluding defence goods and aircraft, February's drop worsened to 2.6%.

Machinery orders slumped 13.3% last month, the steepest decline since records began in 1992, while car orders dropped 2.7%.

"This [durable goods] report further corroborates the notion that, in addition to the financial crisis, the US faces a real economic downturn," said TJ Marta, a fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

Other analysts said both latest manufacturing and housing figures will increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates further.

They come a day after a separate report indicated a sharp downturn in US consumer confidence.
 

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #719 on: March 26, 2008, 07:28:23 PM »
Citigroup shares fall on forecast 

C was my short today.  :)   Most of that move was pre-market, though.  I caught 2 points intraday.  The nice thing was it only moved in one direction for the most part, but I was hoping for more.
Ron: "I am lazy."

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #720 on: March 26, 2008, 07:41:22 PM »
he's been right in the past on a lot of things.


Are you kidding me?   He was telling people to buy KO and MO in mid-January after everyone with a brain had already figured that play out and they had peaked and were already on the way down, and he was still pushing financials in February for christ's sake!

War-horse is right.  You could make a fortune doing the exact opposite of whatever he says.
Ron: "I am lazy."

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #721 on: March 27, 2008, 06:30:43 PM »
Bear Stearns chairman sells stake 
 
The chairman of beleaguered US investment bank, Bear Stearns, has sold his entire stake in the firm as a takeover by JP Morgan Chase looms.
James Cayne received $61m ($31m) for his holding which at one stage was worth close to $1bn.
Analysts say that Mr Cayne offloading all his shares is an indication that investors cannot expect a higher price for their stake.
Bear Stearns is the most high-profile US victim of the credit crunch.
It was forced to seek emergency funding from JP Morgan Chase and the Federal Reserve of New York on 14 March.
News of Mr Cayne's move - revealed after Thursday trading - pushed Bear's share price down by about 5%.

Job cuts

The firm had been at the centre of the US bad mortgage debt crisis which last summer sparked the global credit shortage, and there had been growing speculation that it was struggling to fund its daily business.
Three days later JP Morgan Chase turned its rescue of Bear Stearns into a takeover bid, initially offering just $2 (£1) a share.
At the start of this week, JP Morgan Chase increased its offer to $10 a share, following criticism that its initial bid was too low.
Some job cuts among Bear Stearns' 15,000 staff are expected when JP Morgan Chase completes its takeover
 

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #722 on: March 27, 2008, 06:37:08 PM »

Oil prices went above $108 a barrel after one of Iraq's main export pipelines was blown up.
A company official said damage would cut Basra's exports by a third, adding to supply fears and increasing concern about stability in the region.

The rise extended Wednesday's gains of $4 a barrel after a US report showed lower-than-expected petrol stocks.
A sharp sell-off of all commodities last week took oil below $100 after investors cashed in their gains.
The price of New York light sweet crude oil closed at $107.58 dollars per barrel having hit $108.22 dollars.
Another key measure of the oil price, London Brent crude, finsihed $1.01 higher at $105, having peaked at $105.60 during the session.

Last week, the price of oil reached a record high of $111.80.

Iraq fighting

The fighting in Basra escalated this week after a military operation was launched against militias in the city.
"We see events in Iraq as having taking a dangerous turn with the stability of the southern oil system now starting to become a potential concern," said Barclays Capital analysts in a note.
Iraq is a member of producers' cartel Opec and one of the world's biggest oil exporters.
The prospect of export problems in Iraq compounded supply fears raised on Wednesday in the US.
The US Department of Energy said that petrol stocks were falling as refiners cut production because high oil prices were squeezing their profit margins.

Dollar weakness

Traders said the weak US dollar was also supportive to oil prices, as it becomes cheaper to buy oil for non-dollar investors.
The US dollar has remained low against key currencies, including the euro, sterling and Japanese yen, which helped to support oil prices.
The greenback was virtually unchanged against the euro at $1.5795 as a series of disappointing US economic data on durable goods orders and home sales failed to lift hopes that a US economic recovery was in sight.
This sparked a wave of buying in gold, a hedge against inflation and a haven in times of financial market volatility.
Gold prices rose as high as $954.50 an ounce, a one-week high, before reversing all the day's gains to trade at $946.33.

The precious metal reached a lifetime high of $1,030.80 an ounce on 17 March and many analysts were confident that it would reach this level again if the dollar remained low and oil prices stayed high.

"We are pretty bullish on gold over the medium-term," said Dan Smith, metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #723 on: March 27, 2008, 06:49:48 PM »
LOL.   Bindare carries on NT legacy thread... ;D


If I was a shareholder of bear sterns id be suing like no tomorrow.  I think there is a class action already started...   The insiders had to have known the ship hit the ice and was sinking.  Remember all the stuff enron pulled, trying to cover to get out..

Just bad stuff.  But then again it is a risk being in the market, the small print on the agreements let you know.  Remember riding the hedge fund stuff last year.


Hahahaha   T-bills used to a safe bet but even now its speculative...

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #724 on: March 27, 2008, 07:11:57 PM »
I'm talking back in the day.  His 1991 war rampup and quick takedown predictions were dead on.  He made such a killing he took 3 months off the market just to spend it.