Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022) (Read 466225 times)

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #750 on:** April 02, 2008, 08:33:13 AM »

My play on C today: in long @ 24.40 after waiting a while to see if the trend was going to hold, just closed the position @ 24.97, since the market is going south and the stock is going sideways. 2.3% in 40 minutes... gotta love it.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #751 on:** April 02, 2008, 09:28:17 AM »

Quote from: G o a t b o y on April 02, 2008, 08:13:18 AM

Wow... Bernanke talks shit on the economy, the dow drops like a rock, then half an hour in it takes a hard bounce off 12600 and rockets up well past the open. WTF?

Fed/PPT manipulation have the shorts extremely skidish and on edge. everyone's wondering......what story is next ?

NT

War-Horse · « **Reply #752 on:** April 02, 2008, 09:36:47 AM »

Goat have you read the thread here about the PPT that supports false numbers to slow the eventual downturn in the market.
Ever since NT posted it, weve seen it happen many times.....Just more knowledge to work with.

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #753 on:** April 02, 2008, 11:21:25 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on April 02, 2008, 09:28:17 AM

Fed/PPT manipulation have the shorts extremely skidish and on edge. everyone's wondering......what story is next ?

You can say that again. This volitility is teh awesome! Second trade on C: in short @24.83, trailing stop took me out at @24.25. I wish every day was this "skidish and on edge".

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #754 on:** April 02, 2008, 01:24:44 PM »

Quote from: War-Horse on April 02, 2008, 09:36:47 AM

Goat have you read the thread here about the PPT that supports false numbers to slow the eventual downturn in the market.
Ever since NT posted it, weve seen it happen many times.....Just more knowledge to work with.

Today's $DJI below. The three run-ups that are obviously fighting the daily trend... work of the PPT, augmented by short covers?

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #755 on:** April 02, 2008, 02:08:09 PM »

Quote from: G o a t b o y on April 02, 2008, 01:24:44 PM

Today's $DJI below. The three run-ups that are obviously fighting the daily trend... work of the PPT, augmented by short covers?

not necessarily. but when the PPT needs a rally, we usually get one. also, always keep a close eye on GS.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #756 on:** April 02, 2008, 04:01:51 PM »

gbers...

Bernanke Says U.S. Economy May Slip Into a Recession

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time that a U.S. recession is possible because homebuilding, employment and consumer spending will deteriorate.

``It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,'' Bernanke told Congress's Joint Economic Committee today. He also said the Fed's emergency loan to Bear Stearns Cos. followed a March 13 warning by the firm that it would have to file for bankruptcy the next day.

NT

Bindare_Dundat · « **Reply #757 on:** April 02, 2008, 04:16:17 PM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on April 02, 2008, 04:01:51 PM

gbers...

Bernanke Says U.S. Economy May Slip Into a Recession

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time that a U.S. recession is possible because homebuilding, employment and consumer spending will deteriorate.

``It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,'' Bernanke told Congress's Joint Economic Committee today. He also said the Fed's emergency loan to Bear Stearns Cos. followed a March 13 warning by the firm that it would have to file for bankruptcy the next day.

NT

I don't know if I should laugh or cry when this guy opens his mouth.

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #758 on:** April 02, 2008, 04:26:02 PM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on April 02, 2008, 04:01:51 PM

gbers...

Bernanke Says U.S. Economy May Slip Into a Recession

Wouldn't you say a 6-month recession is already priced into the market? Unless the credit crisis gets worse, there's no reason to see a Dow lower than its low from a few weeks ago, is there? Anyone with mortgage-backed CDO's on their books have already pretty much written them down to nothing. CEO's are under enormous pressure to try to value these things, and not being able to, they're likely erring on the side of caution. What Bernanke needs to focus on now is keeping inflation from getting out of hand. Every time he cuts rates the dollar falls, oil spikes, and the fallout ripples through the economy.

Bindare_Dundat · « **Reply #759 on:** April 02, 2008, 04:33:54 PM »

Quote from: G o a t b o y on April 02, 2008, 04:26:02 PM

Wouldn't you say a 6-month recession is already priced into the market? Unless the credit crisis gets worse, there's no reason to see a Dow lower than its low from a few weeks ago, is there?

Depends, how much have the Afghan poppy fields been producing so far?

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #760 on:** April 03, 2008, 03:44:19 AM »

Quote from: G o a t b o y on April 02, 2008, 04:26:02 PM

Wouldn't you say a 6-month recession is already priced into the market? Unless the credit crisis gets worse, there's no reason to see a Dow lower than its low from a few weeks ago, is there? Anyone with mortgage-backed CDO's on their books have already pretty much written them down to nothing. CEO's are under enormous pressure to try to value these things, and not being able to, they're likely erring on the side of caution. What Bernanke needs to focus on now is keeping inflation from getting out of hand. Every time he cuts rates the dollar falls, oil spikes, and the fallout ripples through the economy.

valid points goat. imo, we probably trade sideways in a range now. unless something unforeseen occurs. currently, much of the bad news is priced into the market.

breaking out from the 11.700-12,700 range may be difficult, but nothing should be considered impossible w/ the PPT working overtime.

honestly goat, i've been involved w/ markets for many years and have never experienced this type of intervention by our government in a "free market system".

normal market psychology should be discarded in this type of environment.

NT

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #761 on:** April 03, 2008, 06:57:22 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on April 03, 2008, 03:44:19 AM

honestly goat, i've been involved w/ markets for many years and have never experienced this type of intervention by our government in a "free market system".

normal market psychology should be discarded in this type of environment.

Having not traded actively until recently, I don't have any perspective on what market reactions have been historically, but in the current market it has been stupidly easy to make money because you get wild swings on news (overreactions, retracments) and all it takes is identifying and following the trend, which most days seems to be good for a few percentage points, followed by an equally steep reversal.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #762 on:** April 03, 2008, 02:29:40 PM »

Quote from: G o a t b o y on April 03, 2008, 06:57:22 AM

Having not traded actively until recently, I don't have any perspective on what market reactions have been historically, but in the current market it has been stupidly easy to make money because you get wild swings on news (overreactions, retracments) and all it takes is identifying and following the trend, which most days seems to be good for a few percentage points, followed by an equally steep reversal.

typical of bear markets. volatile.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #763 on:** April 03, 2008, 03:07:15 PM »

U.S. stocks settle higher after volatile session

Bernanke, regulators defend Bear Stearns bailout in second day of testimony

April 3, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday ended a rocky session with modest gains as investors weighed mixed economic data and congressional testimony on the Bear Stearns bailout.

"The market has been holding up pretty well in the face of negative employment data this morning, which is taking away a potential negative surprise on the jobs report tomorrow," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical.
The market slumped Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the U.S. economy might be in recession for the first half of the year. Investors remained nervous Thursday as Bernanke and regulators answered questions on why the Fed intervened to prevent investment firm Bear Stearns from collapsing

NT

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #764 on:** April 03, 2008, 03:10:50 PM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on April 03, 2008, 03:07:15 PM

U.S. stocks settle higher after volatile session

Bernanke, regulators defend Bear Stearns bailout in second day of testimony

April 3, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday ended a rocky session with modest gains as investors weighed mixed economic data and congressional testimony on the Bear Stearns bailout.

"The market has been holding up pretty well in the face of negative employment data this morning, which is taking away a potential negative surprise on the jobs report tomorrow," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical.
The market slumped Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the U.S. economy might be in recession for the first half of the year. Investors remained nervous Thursday as Bernanke and regulators answered questions on why the Fed intervened to prevent investment firm Bear Stearns from collapsing

NT

The jobs report is what I'm waiting for. Ten-to-one we get more violent swings tomorrow.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #765 on:** April 03, 2008, 03:12:44 PM »

Apr 03 2008
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Rises, but Still Below 50 Mark

The ISM non-manufacturing index rose unexpectedly in March, albeit modestly, to 49.6 from 49.3 in February. Expectations had been for it to drop to 48.5. However, despite this rise, the diffusion measure remains below the 50 level, which is indicative of activity continuing to fall in services.

NT

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #766 on:** April 03, 2008, 03:37:26 PM »

Quote from: G o a t b o y on April 03, 2008, 03:10:50 PM

The jobs report is what I'm waiting for. Ten-to-one we get more violent swings tomorrow.

we're at the top of the trading range in a bear market. unless the jobs report completely surprises, or the Fed comes up with a new gimmick by tomm. morning, i'd expect trading range to remain intact.

in this environment.....it's a coin toss !

NT

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #767 on:** April 03, 2008, 03:55:47 PM »

Well, if I see a downtrend shaping up after 10am, I'm jumping on it.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #768 on:** April 03, 2008, 04:27:32 PM »

Jobless claims: Highest since Katrina

Labor Department says number of claims surges to 407,000 - the highest level since September 2005.

April 3, 2008:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New filings for unemployment claims surged in the latest week to the highest level since September 2005, according to a government report released Thursday.

The Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits rose to 407,000 in the week ended March 29, up from a revised 369,000 claims in the previous week.

gbers.....

if not for the PPT, we sit at Dow 10k.

NT

Bindare_Dundat · « **Reply #769 on:** April 03, 2008, 05:11:46 PM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on April 03, 2008, 04:27:32 PM

if not for the PPT, we sit at Dow 10k.

NT

But the working group just sits around and chats they don't affect anything, Ben said so.

War-Horse · « **Reply #770 on:** April 03, 2008, 10:17:57 PM »

It seems as if the PPT will give its last dying breath to hold up this false dow until bush gets out so they can blame the next president/admin. I dont think theyre fooling too many of us, but we do see blind followers all the time. $:-\$

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #771 on:** April 04, 2008, 06:10:04 AM »

gbers...

U.S. Loses 80,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Increases

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost jobs for a third consecutive month in March and the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since September 2005, pointing to an economy that may already be in a recession.

Payrolls shrank by 80,000, more than forecast, after a decrease of 76,000 in February that was more than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.1 percent, the highest since September 2005, from 4.8 percent.

NT

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #772 on:** April 04, 2008, 09:45:05 AM »

Okay, so the jobs report comes out this morning, and it's worse than expectations. We get the expected drop when the market opens, then around 10:40 it bounces, and now it's trading higher than yeaterday's close?? If this isn't an outside force proping up the market, I think we've lost all common sense. I'm looking for a late day reversal to go short again.

G o a t b o y · « **Reply #773 on:** April 04, 2008, 12:55:32 PM »

Well the PPT fuccked up my trading today.

The drop from opening got cut short, and what I thought was just a fade turned into a rally. After two frustrating break-even trades on C I finally saw the expected downtrend in GS around 1:30 and rode it down short most of the afternoon. I never jumped on the morning uptrend because I didn't think it would go very far.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #774 on:** April 04, 2008, 01:28:28 PM »

Quote from: G o a t b o y on April 04, 2008, 12:55:32 PM

Well the PPT fuccked up my trading today. The drop from opening got cut short, and what I thought was just a fade turned into a rally. After two frustrating break-even trades on C I finally saw the expected downtrend in GS around 1:30 and rode it down short most of the afternoon. I never jumped on the morning uptrend because I didn't think it would go very far.

you experienced market manipulation today. GS (considered the PPT leader) is expected to do most of the heavy lifting to keep our market's from tanking. they served bush/administration well today. so much for free and open markets huh ?

former GS CEO = Paulson

treasury sec. = Paulson

presidents working group on financial markets "kingpin" = Paulson

of course this is all speculation on my part.

BTW......

Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown

Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown Judging by their body language, the US authorities believe the roaring bull market this autumn is just a suckers' rally before the inevitable storm hits.

Hank Paulson, the market-wise Treasury Secretary who built a $700m fortune at Goldman Sachs, is re-activating the 'plunge protection team' (PPT), a shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency, and credit futures in a crash.

Otherwise known as the working group on financial markets, it was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown in October 1987.

NT