Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[trab]

Yup.....

THIng is, when the shit hits the fan, its even worse in the other countries.
OUr cold, is their flu.

Make up a chart block of indian, chineeze, and other hot backwater stocks.
Check it on the next correction and see just what gets flushed 1st and hardest by the money boys....

[Neurotoxin]

guys........



Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. said U.S. auto sales fell in December, capping the worst year in a decade, and predicted that 2008 probably won't be any better.

[trab]

Shopping list....

NOV @ 65
DO   @ 115
BHP  @ 55-67
RTP  @ 327
ABX  @ 37

SOME XOM & COP would be worth stalking to......

[War-Horse]

Trab we understand that someones loss is someones gain.  It will be a buyers market as houses and goods re-adjust their prices to keep consumers spending.

But thinking that the money will stay here in the usa and recirculate to keep the markets above 12,000 is a mistake.  The corps are allready heading overseas for higher profits etc.

We will have a situation of 50 guys applying for 1 job, and as is the american way, the employer may say you will work for 5 dollars an hour or the next guy in line will.........

This will continue to weaken the dollar as more problems arise in wages and cost of goods here.

A superpower is getting weaker.

[trab]

Oh, yes. THere is SO much wrong w/ the USA I cant begin to list it.
I wish Id left when I cashed out my last property and not bought another home here.
No way I'd get back what I paid, (But the 1st property was a sweet killing).


ANd even worse,,, much of that stock money is NOT simply transferd in a crash.
(SHorts dont take it back 1:1 off long loss)
Much (can) dissapears into thin air, same place it came from.

But -ALLthem stuff  inthe grouond tickers I listed up there are prolly a good bet long term IMO.
Catch a falling knife is not a good play, but the long term fundies of all those are solid IMO.
They have been.

It could go down very bad for months,,, and when a guy should have invested his US$'s in backward developing countries instead of holding them its a sad statment for the country..
But take care of yourself.

I dont think the market is going to fall apart. Get used to $100 oil. Expect $1000 gold  in a couple years unless the Mid East all Kiss and make up...

[War-Horse]

Oil will definitely drop at some point as the base of the economy slows and conserves or sells off extra cars.......I count 5 vehicles, a motorhome and a ski boat in my driveway right now.    I dont really need them but if i was making payments on them id sure dump them!!!

Im sure even the lower class has 2-3 vehicles (older model) and will sell off to raise cash soon or cut expenses.   Supply and demand will take over soon.

Gold is where alot of my money will be going soon.

Thats the point of Neuro,s thread here....Hes not saying all hells breaking loose right now..........but the ropes are starting to break on King Kong and you better take notice.

[Neurotoxin]

U.S. Payrolls Rise 18,000, Smallest Gain Since 2003 (Update2)

By Bob Willis

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Hiring in the U.S. slowed more than forecast in December and unemployment jumped to a two-year high, raising the odds the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by half a point this month to ward off a recession.

Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003, after a 115,000 gain in November that was larger than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.0 percent from 4.7 percent in November.

[trab]

ITG on your   allert/watch list NOW.....
.

[War-Horse]

U.S. Payrolls Rise 18,000, Smallest Gain Since 2003 (Update2)

By Bob Willis

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Hiring in the U.S. slowed more than forecast in December and unemployment jumped to a two-year high, raising the odds the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by half a point this month to ward off a recession.

Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003, after a 115,000 gain in November that was larger than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.0 percent from 4.7 percent in November.

They dont seem to realize that just lowering interest rates is not going to cut it.    The credit standards have been tightened from the housing market making it impossible for most of americans to get more credit anyway.......And they couldnt if they tried because their debt to income is now ridiculous.( A borrowers economy)

It is the cost of the homes and consumer goods that have to adjust so the average 12 dollar an hour worker has something to spend.  Up until now and the next few months, any credit cards they now have will be maxed........and we'll see bancruptcy and for closures hit unbelievable levels.

Its gonna be a trainwreck.  Most wealthiar people dont see how this will affect them, but it will because  capitialism is set up like a "Pyramid Scheme" where the money really does flow in from the bottom..........( Most of the economy is based on GDP)and eventually the bottom have nothing left to give, leaving the top with losses also.

It doesnt help that the dollar is getting weaker all the time, it wont get stronger until people are able to spend again...........

[trab]

THey are going to have to lower int rates.
That will test the US$ further... But the Euro is not worth the premium its getting.
USA has much more potential and resources of every kind than W Europe.

Gold and silver are going to run further IMO  gold will eventually establish a $1000 base.
So a nice size ring will set ya back 5 Benjamin's.

Alex should buy back his Oil and service Cos at a point w/ a safe stop under it and chase it back up.
They aint makin more oil.

Look @ XOM COP NOV right now... We cant live w/ out that stuff. People go hungry first...


Some interesting points on the US$.
http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=money&vid=884dd618-e5ed-410d-8ef8-2a0d16ecb544&playlist=videoByTag:tag:money_top_investing:ns:MSNmoney_Gallery:mk:us:vs:1&from=MSNmoney_TodaysPick&tab=s216

Your correct in the guys running the show are clueless how bad it is.
They dont get into the real world ever.

[Neurotoxin]

They dont seem to realize that just lowering interest rates is not going to cut it.    The credit standards have been tightened from the housing market making it impossible for most of americans to get more credit anyway.......And they couldnt if they tried because their debt to income is now ridiculous.( A borrowers economy)

It is the cost of the homes and consumer goods that have to adjust so the average 12 dollar an hour worker has something to spend.  Up until now and the next few months, any credit cards they now have will be maxed........and we'll see bancruptcy and for closures hit unbelievable levels.

Its gonna be a trainwreck.  Most wealthiar people dont see how this will affect them, but it will because  capitialism is set up like a "Pyramid Scheme" where the money really does flow in from the bottom..........( Most of the economy is based on GDP)and eventually the bottom have nothing left to give, leaving the top with losses also.

It doesnt help that the dollar is getting weaker all the time, it wont get stronger until people are able to spend again...........

the fed is a one trick pony....all they have is interest rate cuts. if they cut again at the next meeting, inflation will continue to soar and the dollar will plunge.

right now..................... the fed is fvcked.

[youandme]

A superpower is getting weaker.

Bro you know in India they no longer accept the dollar in heavily invested tourist areas?   

The Indian officials tell the public "the rupee is more logical than the US dollar"

[trab]

the fed is a one trick pony....all they have is interest rate cuts. if they cut again at the next meeting, inflation will continue to soar and the dollar will plunge.

right now..................... the fed is fvcked.

They are not fvcked - The average American PPL are.

Those guys live quite nice... Its not going to disturb their golf game much at all....

[War-Horse]

Bro you know in India they no longer accept the dollar in heavily invested tourist areas?   

The Indian officials tell the public "the rupee is more logical than the US dollar"

Right now we must find hapiness in other things....like your avatar,  Mmmmm  makes me hungry!!

[War-Horse]

They are not fvcked - The average American PPL are.

Those guys live quite nice... Its not going to disturb their golf game much at all....

They will feel it. It will take a little longer because theyre at the top of the "Pyramid scheme" called capitialism.       The bottom feeds the top and it will hurt them.     If things get to tough between those that "have" and those that "dont Have"   then i can see a mutiny happening.

As someone becomes desparate for food or housing they will gladly slice your throat open for a loaf of bread....and they'll feel Justified for doing it.....

[youandme]

They are not fvcked - The average American PPL are.

Those guys live quite nice... Its not going to disturb their golf game much at all....

Like Ernest Hemingway said "We are people. We read. We are not dumb. We are machinist."

In order for them to live fruitful they must keep the machines working.

They only have 1 tool (interest rates) unlike the public who had many (retail, real estate, etc.)

They must maintain their tool to maintain status quo, but like Neuro said what is that going to really do this time around?

[trab]

We'll see, but I dont think going all in on Euros is the smart thing.

This shit turns on a dime.

Look at SWHC now (S&W Handguns)  That bitch was fun to trade, and ya knew it was WAY overvalued and I didnt care. It just a matter or risk/reward and a stop thet is in order w/ your entry opportunity.
Gapping down (or up, if short) is your danger, and you then follow disaster gap rules.

Listen to Jubac on that video about the US$.
Its not getting wholesale dumped anytime. Yes, It will decline more.

They need to clean up all these crooked shoe salesmen taht went into writing home loans.
F'ing ARM's esp need to be changed.
Why should we all bite the bullet for assholes that were irresponsible?
Now we hurt to save them, and its SO bad that not bailing them out hurts us even more
THe lesson is irresponsibility pays in America.

They deserve to lose their homes is the fact.

[youandme]

THe lesson is irresponsibility pays in America.

Damage is already done. The accountability went straight across the board.

[War-Horse]

Damage is already done. The accountability went straight across the board.

Exactly.  The fed let the mortgage companies sell these loans because most were backed by wallstreet anyway.   The numbers pumped higher and it made the Bush administration look like he was doing something good on the spreadsheet.

But most of these were "stated income loans" which are liar loans where you can make up a number of your income and it goes thru w/out verification.
Those will be banned.   ARM loans will need to be controlled also.

But as the people lose their homes it will affect all the way thru the economy.

[trab]

alex23, while you were in diapers with crap in your pants, i was working the floor at the NYSE.


have a great weekend. 

Sweeping the bitch at night!! 

Your so fucking smart, it'd show a tiny bit.....
If you Know Jack? Show a smidgen.... You aint got it... so you cant.....
I dont see evidence you've EVER placed a trade in your life....

Another shit talker here.....

[War-Horse]

Sweeping the bitch at night!! 

Your so fucking smart, it'd show a tiny bit.....
If you Know Jack? Show a smidgen.... You aint got it... so you cant.....
I dont see evidence you've EVER placed a trade in your life....

Another shit talker here.....

He's ran circle's around you trab.  All you do is talk about trades and stops.
Lets see some overall understanding of the economy and how it works.  You are a one trick pony and prolly would have lost you ass if not picking up some knowledge from NT.

Now why dont you be a little 5 year old and hurl an insult, like the little dicknibbler that you are.....

P.S.   Hows roofing going??    Cover yout tracks, better ......

[trab]

I dont roof.

If Nero was a floor trader, I got much respect for him, but Neither of you have shown the least evidence that you even know WTF a conditional order is, much less ever entered any trade on your own...
In that case....
I'm not a pro trader, but neither of you has shown you know Jack shit about trading.

I'd love to hear some War Stories from The Floor. And what'z his idea of whats up, and where its going and a plan, instead of some Sky is Falling someday song.
The fact is nobody knows where the market is going for sure.
And most explinations of what moved it are fantasy to fill air time.

I can pull those stories out the the news all day too. It don't give any plan to respond,,,
AND - Most Pro Traders give a rats ass about the direction of market anyway.
Many prefer the short side..

Nobody here but me has made a statement w/ ANY credibility.

Anyone can say the sky is falling over and over.

Friday the Dow chart closed ugly on every timeframe from Weekly to the 1 minute. ANd closed on its low for all practical purposes. That dont bode well for the next open.

I personally closed out all but one of everyone in the families mutuals Late Sept.
That bottoming tail on the 8/16 daily,  allthough a classic bottom reversal signal, is SUCH a abberation to anything in 4yrs taht it made me real uncomfortable..... The subsequent rise I suspected, and got out on.

Now, we can talk shakeouts onthe next retest all we want, and its only the DOW, but I'm not gettin trapped for years in a stagnant market..

But I dont really think she's done going up.... I'm Not exactly gonna buy TOL or tag along w/ Buffet on USG either, and put ALL finance in that trash bin too.....

PROVE it Nero. Back your shit up a little if you were a floor trader... Dont need Pictures for this kids...

[War-Horse]

You made a post saying you didnt think the DOW would go below 12,000 too.  Thats assinine is what was told to you.  The market was artificially inflated due too the inflood of money from the money guys....Just as NT said, theyll do it to get thru the holidays and drop it like a rock.

Its happening even sooner.....Mr Corporate (Bush) now will leave a train wreck for the next administration to deal with.  (I see dow down to 8,000 in a year or two as the dollar continues to be attacked.)

FYI, no one gives a shit if you stand on the stockfloor doing "Real" trades or not.    You seem to be missing the point that NT was just warning us about some patterns to be aware of, and you and Alex23 were laughing it off in the first sections of this thread.   Now i see alex agreeing a little and you too.  Which is a good thing....

BTW, I play with commodities, so i aint afraid of a little fun.

[trab]

You made a post saying you didnt think the DOW would go below 12,000 too.  Thats assinine is what was told to you.  The market was artificially inflated due too the inflood of money from the money guys....Just as NT said, theyll do it to get thru the holidays and drop it like a rock.

Its happening even sooner.....Mr Corporate (Bush) now will leave a train wreck for the next administration to deal with.  (I see dow down to 8,000 in a year or two as the dollar continues to be attacked.)

FYI, no one gives a shit if you stand on the stockfloor doing "Real" trades or not.    You seem to be missing the point that NT was just warning us about some patterns to be aware of, and you and Alex23 were laughing it off in the first sections of this thread.   Now i see alex agreeing a little and you too.  Which is a good thing....

BTW, I play with commodities, so i aint afraid of a little fun.

Pffttt......  still not a word on strategy or reason or a bit of knowledge.
Anyone dont see the USA economy has probs right now is blind and stupid.


You have ZERO credibility....

I ain't  bullish , I told you what I did and why... You two seem to  just spin fortune wheel or throw darts...

I feel the DOW could need to correct thru time around 12. It could touch 8 in a cascade of stops blowing out and panic selling. I dont see 8 as a base ever again in our life.
But hey, Nobody knows...

I'm longterm bullish on Oil and Oil services and stuff in the ground and Gold.
Dont mean go long and forget it........

I really want to hear about the NYSE floor, I'm not shittin'.  Sounds like He should have some awesome stories.
Totall apology if its true, but he's not shown one bit of market knowledge and all I see him do is agitate for attention.




 

[War-Horse]

Pffttt......  still not a word on strategy or reason or a bit of knowledge.
Anyone dont see the USA economy has probs right now is blind and stupid.


You have ZERO credibility....

I ain't  bullish , I told you what I did and why... You two seem to  just spin fortune wheel or throw darts...

I feel the DOW could need to correct thru time around 12. It could touch 8 in a cascade of stops blowing out and panic selling. I dont see 8 as a base ever again in our life.
But hey, Nobody knows...

I'm longterm bullish on Oil and Oil services and stuff in the ground and Gold.
Dont mean go long and forget it........

I really want to hear about the NYSE floor, I'm not shittin'.  Sounds like He should have some awesome stories.
Totall apology if its true, but he's not shown one bit of market knowledge and all I see him do is agitate for attention.




 

There you go again with "credibility" ..........who gives a shit.  This is an opinion page and everyone may have one.   Im not running for office, and couldnt care less on where your trades are going.....

You seem to be stuck on one issue, whereas we are discussing a bigger picture and before we know HOW to move the chess peice..........we must know WHY to move it.

You have contributed nothing to this thread and i dont understand why you fight so hard for "Credibility"?