Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022) (Read 466266 times)

youandme · « **Reply #175 on:** January 06, 2008, 08:48:13 AM »

So Windsor, what did you move your funds to?

Hey I flipped the tube last nite and caught some "Mad Money" and yep, some people out there are still buying chips, cause cramer tells them. You know his portfolio etc. has never been audited? He claims that 24% return for like 13 years but no actual proof of it.

windsor88 · « **Reply #176 on:** January 06, 2008, 02:39:43 PM »

Quote from: youandme on January 06, 2008, 08:48:13 AM

So Windsor, what did you move your funds to?

Hey I flipped the tube last nite and caught some "Mad Money" and yep, some people out there are still buying chips, cause cramer tells them. You know his portfolio etc. has never been audited? He claims that 24% return for like 13 years but no actual proof of it.

I have moved it into Pimco Total Return Fund.

It is basically 90% cash and 10% bonds.

trab · « **Reply #177 on:** January 06, 2008, 03:12:57 PM »

www.optionstratigist.com

You cant trade news, or emotions .... Well you can, but your called "Dumb Money" then.

THE OPTION STRATEGIST
WEEKLY UPDATER 01/04/08
by McMillan Analysis Corp.

Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.

Stock Market

The stock market has been in a rather ugly funk since Christmas. In four consecutive trading days, $SPX lost a total of 50 points. Somewhat surprisingly, this decline has not convincingly thrown the indicators into a bearish mode, but it has certainly hurt the bullish case.

The $SPX chart is still a neutral one, despite the recent losses. The index remains within a large triangle (see Figure 1, red lines). Or, from an even wider perspective, $SPX is in a large, volatile trading range (blue lines on Figure 1). Near-term, a violation of support at 1440 (this week's lows) will likely lead to a quick retest of the 1410 level. A drop below there would likely mean that a bear market has begun. On the upside, there is resistance at a variety of previous tops, from 1500 all the way up to 1560.

The equity-only put-call ratios (Figures 2 and 3) have not followed through on their buy signals from about a month ago. In fact, both ratios have now turned upward. That cancels out the buy signals and throws these indicators back into a sell signal. At the least, this means that a new stock market bottom will have to form; at worst, it means much lower prices lie ahead for stocks.

Breadth is negative, but has yet to reach oversold territory -- a prerequisite to setting up an eventual buy signal.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) are following a pattern similar to $SPX: they are in a wide triangle, and until they definitively break out of that triangle, they can be considered more or less neutral. A close by $VIX above 24 would be bearish.

In summary, the put-call ratios and breadth are negative. All that's awaiting final confirmation of an all-out bearish signal is 1) a $VIX close above 24, and 2) and $SPX close below 1440.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #178 on:** January 07, 2008, 03:40:10 AM »

guys, as this market goes lower, there will be a great opportunity in buying the beaten down financial sector. most of the big guys are currently sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the right opportunity to get in.

i will give you a heads up when the time comes. this opportunity comes very rarely and will pay off handsomely.

War-Horse · « **Reply #179 on:** January 07, 2008, 05:15:38 PM »

Yeah I'd imagine there will be a few upswings here and there thru the year. Bush (Corporate) doesnt want to leave office in a full scale depression.

Hes gonna have to gently work it until its a total bust for the next administration.

Hes such a dumbass he doesnt know 80% of america know its his policys anyway...

My mother called me today and said shes losing 100 dollars a day in her 401k......Shes gonna have to cash out or put into CD's....Is that good advice?

She doesnt want to ride the market like us, just keep what she has...

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #180 on:** January 08, 2008, 01:22:32 PM »

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell as worse-than- expected home sales and an increase in late payments by AT&T Inc.'s customers sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level since March.

trab · « **Reply #181 on:** January 08, 2008, 01:40:28 PM »

Quote from: Alex23 is Back on January 07, 2008, 04:44:37 PM

I'm putting togheter a stock contest on http://www.investopedia.com

Are you in?

Alex? Do they have a simulator you like? Ive never seen one Ive cared for.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080108markets.aspx
I personally dont see how Gold dont go to a Grand base.
Int% rates got to drop, and the US$ will follow.

PM me some time..... Mr Nitwit - (AKA The Sky is falling sometime), but dont know where and when and how hard its gonna fall - is a bunch of air.

BTW them opportunities after the storm may not last long.

Go back and look at the May 11 2006 - July 20's trauma on the DOW chart.....
The sky was fallilng then too.... Look @ the next leg up.

If Mr. nitwit was handling institutional size postions that takes a diff kind of play.
You cant just unload them guys sized positons w/ a stop like a on a PDTA.

Hey, Neuro prove your shit and I'll bow down if you were a market maker or specialist ...

I what to hear floor war stories.

War HOrse, you tipped you hand bad askin about moms accounts... The only commodities I'd suggest ya dabble in are a bag of sugar for your coffee.
Mom needs look at her accounts the penalty hit, Her age, health, if the fund can be reentered,,,etc
I dont like Bush either at theis juncture, but these conspiracy theories are BS and show frustrated PPL w/ no
sense of direction. Bush can not move the market, nor can the Govt or Hedge funds controll the price of somthing like gold. Not much, or for long.
The Markets are too big these days. Its not the days of Jesse Livermore.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #182 on:** January 09, 2008, 04:19:48 AM »

guys, as this market hits key support, expect a temporary upside soon. this will not change the overall direction in this market......which is still lower.

US recessionary pressures have traders in a firm defensive stance.

youandme · « **Reply #183 on:** January 09, 2008, 07:48:05 AM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on January 08, 2008, 01:22:32 PM

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell as worse-than- expected home sales and an increase in late payments by AT&T Inc.'s customers sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level since March.

Merrily Lynch officially declared a recission is in our near future. A Harvard college economist proclaimed very large chance of stagflation economy.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #184 on:** January 09, 2008, 01:14:09 PM »

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks seesawed higher on Wednesday as bargain hunters stepped back into a market that has knocked about 600 points off the Dow so far this year.

War-Horse · « **Reply #185 on:** January 09, 2008, 01:52:23 PM »

Dont worry trab. I considered penalties and such items in the 401k.

Shes retirement age so the timing is perfect, like NT has proved since this thread started...(See posts above me) Now your going to follow like a little lamb.

CD's are looking good about now, just like NT said.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #186 on:** January 09, 2008, 02:10:11 PM »

ok guys here's the deal, the market hit a key "support level' late in the day and buyers moved in and the market bounced. (see above)

earning will decide where we take this market going forward. over the short term i expect a move to the upside before we go lower again. the DOW 12,000 area is my next target..... on the downside.

i would not be surprized to see us near DOW 10,000 by the end of the year. i could be wrong, but my experience says otherwise.

NT

MB_722 · « **Reply #187 on:** January 09, 2008, 03:16:32 PM »

two great videos

how to succeed investing

The Coming Economic Collapse?

trab · « **Reply #188 on:** January 09, 2008, 03:53:15 PM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on January 09, 2008, 03:08:51 PM

cramer is full of shit, that clown blew-up a hedge fund. he was also fired from the TV show kudlow @ cramer. why?......for losing larry kudlows money with shit stock advise.(allegedly)

the only reason cramer still has a TV show is because he has information on CNBC (insider trading info. with CNBC from his hedge fund days etc.) that could ruin the network. (allegedly)

all the above is alleged.

NT

Jimmy is a disaster. He's entertainment at best. The fact he's allowed to continue his show is a head scratcher.
His antics w/ the allegations about hedge manipulations would seem an invitation to a investigation of himself. Was odd....

A 10K Dow base would be a disaster. THe only + things can be said about the Dow chart close today is the weekly may not make a lower low by Friday close and the 15-1min are up (but are about to run right into resitsance again).

My guess may correct at 12s for a time.
If the 3/2 - 3/23 lows are breached (esp 1193 3/16th) it will get real interesting fast.

How far down and how long before panic selling stops may be damn exciting.
Much of the general public will be oblivious.

Thats a good thing.

ARMZ · « **Reply #189 on:** January 09, 2008, 05:32:40 PM »

Bookmark..

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #190 on:** January 10, 2008, 05:32:40 AM »

The consumer is bled dry. That is the message from an earnings warning at Capital One (COF). Mortgage lending was getting bad, but the latest news is that auto and credit card lending are falling apart.

According to The Wall Street Journal "Capital One is expected to announce today that it expects charge-offs of $5.9 billion in 2008, up from its October forecast of $4.9 billion to $5.5 billion, partly because of worsening economic indicators that include rising unemployment."

But, consumers have nothing but lint in their pockets now. They were the last, best hope that GDP was not likely to move into reverse.

Now, the question is how bad it will be and for how long.

trab · « **Reply #191 on:** January 10, 2008, 05:45:31 AM »

The question is if printing more green toiletpaper will even help........

War-Horse · « **Reply #192 on:** January 10, 2008, 12:55:13 PM »

Quote from: trab on January 10, 2008, 05:45:31 AM

The question is if printing more green toiletpaper will even help........

No, It just goes to the top earners and helps float the top of the "pyramid scheme" for a little while longer.....Its a bandaid.
Christmas was the last Hoorah and now its gonna get bad.

The pyramid depends on the middle class to keep shoving money in from the bottom...(GDP). Everyone has spent money they dont have.

BTW. Im not saying sky is falling. The market will adjust but not without a huge correction in home prices, utilites, food, gas etc.

It will take a year or two to hit bottom and will bounce back if you can reduce expenses for the middle class such as fixing healthcare for boomers and such.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #193 on:** January 10, 2008, 01:18:16 PM »

Quote from: Neurotoxin on January 07, 2008, 06:28:16 AM

expect a temporary upside to this market before we again go lower.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday rallied after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled more interest-rate cuts ahead and The Wall Street Journal reported Bank of America Corp. is in talks to buy Countrywide Financial Corp., sending shares of the troubled mortgage provider soaring 61%.

as expected, the market has rallied. it will ultimately fail again.

War-Horse · « **Reply #194 on:** January 10, 2008, 01:32:51 PM »

LOL. Its the rich feeding the rich.

They just dont get it. They could drop interst to 1.1% and people still couldnt buy.........they just dont have it... $:-\$

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #195 on:** January 10, 2008, 01:48:47 PM »

Quote from: War-Horse on January 10, 2008, 01:32:51 PM

LOL. Its the rich feeding the rich.

They just dont get it. They could drop interst to 1.1% and people still couldnt buy.........they just dont have it... $:-\$

so true, people don't get it. the housing boom fueled the u.s. consumer, that's over. lower interest rates will further fan the inflation flames, which will ultimately result in stagflation.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #196 on:** January 10, 2008, 04:39:37 PM »

guys, for your reading pleasure.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Add Goldman Sachs' economists to the list of forecasters predicting a recession in the U.S. economy this year. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said he now expects a mild recession lasting two or three quarters this year, with a cumulative drop in gross domestic product of about 0.5%. "The latest data suggest that recession has now arrived, or will very shortly," Hatzius wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. The Goldman economist expects the jobless rate to rise from 5% to 6.25% by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut its overnight lending rate target from 4.25% to 2.5%, Hatzius said. He expects consumer spending to decline for the first time since 1991.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #197 on:** January 10, 2008, 04:59:00 PM »

i have spoken about the plunge protection team earlier. interesting article.

01/08/2008

Bush convenes Plunge Protection Team

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor

Bears beware. The New Deal of 2008 is in the works. The US Treasury is about to shower households with rebate cheques to head off a full-blown slump, and save the Bush presidency. On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash.

It appears to have powers to support the markets in a crisis with a host of instruments, mostly by through buying futures contracts on the stock indexes (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell) and key credit levers. And it has the means to fry "short" traders in the hottest of oils.

The team is led by Treasury chief Hank Paulson, ex-Goldman Sachs, a man with a nose for market psychology, and includes Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the key exchange regulators.

Judging by a well-briefed report in the Washington Post, a mood of deep alarm has taken hold in the upper echelons of the administration. "What everyone's looking at is what is the fastest way to get money out there," said a Bush aide.

Emergency measures are now clearly on the agenda, apparently consisting of a mix of tax cuts for businesses and bungs for consumers. Fiscal action all too appropriate, regrettably.

We face a version of Keynes's "extreme liquidity preference" in the 1930s - banks are hoarding money, and the main credit arteries of the financial system remain blocked after five months.

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #198 on:** January 11, 2008, 05:18:17 AM »

and these firms want YOUR money to "manage" ?

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- largest U.S. securities firm, may write down $15 billion related to U.S. mortgage losses, almost twice its original forecast, the New York Times reported, citing people briefed on the plan.

Analysts had estimated that the New York-based firm would announce a markdown of about $12 billion when it reports fourth- quarter earnings next week, adding to an $8.4 billion charge in the previous quarter. Losses on bets related to U.S. mortgages prompted the ouster of Chief Executive Officer Stan O'Neal in October and his replacement by John Thain a month later.

Merrill is trying to raise $4 billion from investors in the U.S., Asia and the Middle East to shore up its finances, the newspaper said, citing the same people. U.S. and European banks and securities firms including Merrill have already turned to Asian and Middle Eastern governments for about $34 billion.

``It's going to be a tough year for investors,'' said Hugh Young,

Neurotoxin · « **Reply #199 on:** January 11, 2008, 01:14:12 PM »

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks dropped steeply Friday, with the Dow headed toward its most dismal first-eight-trading-days-of-a-year run in 17 years, as write-downs and slashed earnings forecasts signaled slowing consumer spending and sparked increased talk of a recession.

----

NT