Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[Neurotoxin]

guys.....



Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose more than forecast last week to a 27-month high, evidence of a weakening job market.

Initial jobless claims increased by 69,000 to 375,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The increase in claims was the biggest since just after Hurricane Katrina in September 2005.






NT

[Neurotoxin]

WASHINGTON 1/31/08 (MarketWatch) - U.S. real consumer spending flattened out in December, further evidence that the economy was getting weaker as the fourth quarter sputtered to an end.Real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, was unchanged in December following a 0.4% gain in November, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
 
The report shows consumer spending weakening as the quarter progressed, giving the first quarter a weak beginning. The report comes just a day after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates again in a bid to prevent financial market's skittishness and a worsening housing market from causing a recession.  
Core inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- remained uncomfortably above the Fed's target zone, coming in as expected at 0.2% for December and 2.2% for the past 12 months.
-------



guys, when Core Inflation is uncomfortably above the Feds target, what do you believe lowering interest rates does ?


the Fed is boxed in a corner........



NT
 

[War-Horse]

Ive got to admit, this is fun to watch after all the frustrating lies Bush would tell about the economy being strong.
 And saying the mission is accomplished in Iraq 1,890 days ago.

Everytime he would get to the podium and try to say these things I would ask
"What planet is he living on"?

In case any out there dont see how bush is tied to such events.....they fail to recognize that he is simply a major power in the corporate world and one world economy that is the goal.....to get there you have to manipulate and lie to the american people...(he thinks its for our own good)

The capitialism pyramid is falling, all our money is borrowed and to be replaced with a stronger currency.  we need major change ,not the same old politics.  The constitution must be restored.

I believe in America and hope when they vote, its for a radical change like ron paul.  Anyone else dems or repubs will lead us into a full scale depression.

[Thin Lizzy]

any deadcat bounce to stocks on interest rate cuts this week while inflation is high and the dollar is weak will fail.

keep in mind, Wall Street is pressuring bernanke for interest cuts as an excuse to rally this BAD market. without the cuts, we go straight to Dow 10,000 w/o a pause. with the cuts, it'll just take a bit longer to get to Dow 10,000.

do not......i repeat........do not get sucked in if you're a long term investor.


NT

I've enjoyed reading this thread, but am not quite as sure about Dow 10K this year as you. The public sentiment right now is very negative towards the market. Even the Fed and the financial media will have a hard time prodding the retail investor back into the market. If WS insiders were to take market down further, it would trigger massive selling which would deplete insider short sale inventories, which, in turn would require subsequent rallies to unload the newly acquired merchandise. Insiders need to work prices down on LOW volume in order to preserve their profits.

Like you, I believe the long term trend is down, but, I could see the market trading sideways for the year.

[MB_722]

Jan. 30/08 Peter Schiff on FBN after the second rate cut

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-1-30-08_lg.asp

[Bindare_Dundat]

Peter has been right many times and I love the Ron Paul plug! Nice video, thanks.

[trab]

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/etfs/html-profile.asp?symb=DOG&sid=2354547&dist=TQP_Nav_profile

I'm not recomending this etf. But there are many similar ones also.

THis market could churn rather sideways for years. Play it bar by bar or dont play it at all IMO.

I'm Not comfortable w/ overnight holds, but a lot of traders still are.
ANd theres still A LOT of money being made every day, Long and short no matter market direction.


THere was a LOT of buyers at high volume at the past lows waiting for a retest. Big green bars on heavy volume.
retail and home builders were frying hot.
 IT needs to retest, and not just a 2 consecutive day thing.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall below the last lows.
BUt even the experts cant predict.

Ive allways thought it puzzling how the public is largely invested in something they have NO Understanding of.
 Basically they've been baited in.

[24KT]

Ive allways thought it puzzling how the public is largely invested in something they have NO Understanding of.
 Basically they've been baited in.

I don't think it's so much that they've been baited, as much that they've just been ignorant & lazy.
For the most part they have always said "Here, take my money", ...and have never really paid much attention to what was going on, or how they were exposed.

[trab]

I don't think it's so much that they've been baited, as much that they've just been ignorant & lazy.
For the most part they have always said "Here, take my money", ...and have never really paid much attention to what was going on, or how they were exposed.

No, they are given tax incentive, thus baited.
They understand - ZERO.
Just read thru this thread and its clear, talking market w/ general public is basically banging head on a wall...
I almost cry when I hear "Ill just ride it out no matter ,,,"  Hey, Better them than me.

Markets go up, markets go down.... (They can go down much faster..)


All that extra dumb money is good for the Big Boys, what would average Joe piss it away on anyway?

Look at GOOG last night. That 4-Letter ticker is thick in PPL's accts and they dont even know it...
Its so intwined that the last time it got sick, it was immediately put on a major index to save it and its holders.

Yeah, GOOG is pretty cool, but is it really worth that multiple? 
Pull up SHWH or similar and see how fast reality can set in.

Instead of crying that their dog got hit by a car, ppl need to learn to make a tasty meal from Wall St road kill.
Its not THAT hard, but reading this thread reinforces how NOT VERY SMART MOST ARE. They prolly ARE better off
buy and forget it. They will pull  at worst possible time.

[24KT]

No, they are given tax incentive, thus baited.

I don't think the average public invests for a tax incentive. They do it to try to get ahead.
It's the big boys and those with much to spare that are in for the incentives.

They understand - ZERO.

That's what I mean by they're ignorant. They don't know. And the majority have never even lifted a finger to learn.

Just read thru this thread and its clear, talking market w/ general public is basically banging head on a wall...
I almost cry when I hear "Ill just ride it out no matter ,,,"  Hey, Better them than me.

Markets go up, markets go down.... (They can go down much faster..)

That's why it's imperative people understand what's going on. It's getting better though.
In the past decade, there's been a tremendous increase in people educating themselves about the markets.

All that extra dumb money is good for the Big Boys, what would average Joe piss it away on anyway?

Ohhhh... I don't know... paying down/off mortgages, ...ensuring a solid stable retirement comes to mind. 

Instead of crying that their dog got hit by a car, ppl need to learn to make a tasty meal from Wall St road kill.

Right now, I think most are simply trying to avoid becoming roadkill themselves. It's just like when you're flying.
The flight attendants make sure to tell you to secure YOUR life vest and/or respiratory devices first, before securing anyone else's. I'd advise anyone looking to feast off roadkill to be very cautious of catching rabies. 

[Neurotoxin]

guys.....



Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in January for the first time in more than four years, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further next month to head off a recession.

Payrolls fell by 17,000 after an 82,000 gain in December that was larger than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. 

The drop in payrolls, in the wake of tighter credit, a deeper housing slump and a stumbling stock market, is the clearest sign yet that the U.S. expansion is at risk. Payrolls are one of the indicators, along with wages, production and sales, that help determine the start of economic contractions.

``The labor market is very close to the edge here and it would not take much to push the economy over the cliff,'' Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. ``More and more companies are reporting layoffs. Now we are seeing that the economy is, indeed, perhaps just inches away from a recession.''

[trab]

http://candlecharts.com/highlights/nisonupdate/

Here's something you can actually use, Steve Nison brought candlestick charts to the states and revolutionised
Technical analysis.

The Forex info is going to be way over most heads, but If you want to further explore what these signals tell you would be smart.

Then your not at the mercy of Talking heads or self aggrandizing sons-of-a-bitches (with an agenda, and quite possibly something to gain)  pumping fear into you about that which you are ignorant.  You can learn to be quite accurate about reversal signals. Children can be taught to spot them.
Tops more so than bottoms.

The answerers are with in yourself (with some work), not Jimmy Cramer or some Broker or analyst or news story.
You cant make decisions about this field off news,  all news is too late...

[Thin Lizzy]

No, they are given tax incentive, thus baited.
They understand - ZERO.

When the market is rising, you hear about it on the news and read about it in the papers. So, if you're a guy with $$ in the bank collecting 3-4%, you feel as though you're on the outside. Unfortunately, the public doesn't realize that it's being goaded into buying at the tops of rallies so that insiders can unload their inventory and establish major short positions which will allow them profit on the downside when they eventually buy back the stock from the public.

[trab]

When the market is rising, you hear about it on the news and read about it in the papers. So, if you're a guy with $$ in the bank collecting 3-4%, you feel as though you're on the outside. Unfortunately, the public doesn't realize that it's being goaded into buying at the tops of rallies so that insiders can unload their inventory and establish major short positions which will allow them profit on the downside when they eventually buy back the stock from the public.

Its not that simple,,,(Also, the tax incentives Ive allways questioned. THe market has historically done a lot of harm to even fairly sophisticated old wealth families. Like swimming in the rip w/ low skills for most)

But, it (market) is essentially fair. You  to can also short the market.
 Many Profs prefer to, as its much faster movement.
If you start to learn now, in a couple years you;ll have a knowledge base where your not a victim anymore.
Why only make money on the upside? Its silly to think markets should only & continually move up.


Jubak often has a good story. I dont belong to his fundaMENTAL analysis camp though. I prefer to look only at whatt is real and transpiring before my face. All else is conjecture. His breed also miss out on the superhigh profit stuff that is Briefly priced insane. THat is where the big money is, not some stodgy old PE valuations.
Many Level II screen watchers hold NYSE secureties in near disdain.
 
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/StocksToBuyAfterTheBloodbath.aspx?GT1=10923

[Thin Lizzy]

But, it (market) is essentially fair. You  to can also short the market.

LOL

If you're a trader, then you know the Market Makers for Nasdaq stocks: GS, Merrill, UBS, JP Morgan etc. That's who the small investor is up against. The investment banks have more money more information, better technology and a million loopholes to rules (eg. exemption from margin requirements). They can pummel a stock one way or another so that THEY, not you, can make a profit. As far as short selling, when the little guy starts doing this, all a sudden, there's a rally like what we've had the past two weeks, and even if you do make money short selling, you're gonna sweat for it.

The market can be beaten, but, unless you're going to put a FULL TIME effort into it, you're better off on the sidelines.

[trab]

LOL

If you're a trader, then you know the Market Makers for Nasdaq stocks: GS, Merrill, UBS, JP Morgan etc. That's who the small investor is up against. The investment banks have more money more information, better technology and a million loopholes to rules (eg. exemption from margin requirements). They can pummel a stock one way or another so that THEY, not you, can make a profit. As far as short selling, when the little guy starts doing this, all a sudden, there's a rally like what we've had the past two weeks, and even if you do make money short selling, you're gonna sweat for it.

The market can be beaten, but, unless you're going to put a FULL TIME effort into it, you're better off on the sidelines.

There are advantage the small trader has that the big boys never will. They are not nimble in their giant positions, and you can also see their tracks by the tick and hitch a ride anytime you want, all day long, back and forth.

Do you trade? Level II?
I dont think so....

Ive watched a tremendous amt$z made the last 2 weeks even in these condits by good traders.
Stop crying and start learing. This is going to be awhile.
No Neuro or Cramer or Mr Juback or Mr McMillan is going to tell you when to go long for the next years or even weeks.
Utter delusions. Notice the Real Pros dont ever make such pretensions...

Shit, theres little guys that play nothing but the morning gaps for a hour daily and pull a very good living.

But I am seriously overestimating the intelligence of the average Get Bigger.
You have a chance if YOU QUIT SELLING YOURSELF SHORT, and stop believing in some mysterious conspiratorial forces that are excuses to fail or not even try. The danger is you susceede and see how much of your life you wasted on liberal self pitty and excuses for your lack of satisfaction . Take it slow and that nitemare will be realised. Rush in and you'll blow out, perhaps thats where your at.

The only thing GS and Merril have done to me is make me money.Boo Hoo.
Please make it stop....  

[War-Horse]

Trab. you are a gimmick account.    In this thread alone you have been owned by everybody and their second cousin.

You are a hot airbag of corn-filled shit. 

[stormshadow]

There are advantage the small trader has that the big boys never will. They are not nimble in their giant positions, and you can also see their tracks by the tick and hitch a ride anytime you want, all day long, back and forth.

Do you trade? Level II?
I dont think so....

Ive watched a tremendous amt$z made the last 2 weeks even in these condits by good traders.
Stop crying and start learing. This is going to be awhile.
No Neuro or Cramer or Mr Juback or Mr McMillan is going to tell you when to go long for the next years or even weeks.
Utter delusions. Notice the Real Pros dont ever make such pretensions...

Shit, theres little guys that play nothing but the morning gaps for a hour daily and pull a very good living.

But I am seriously overestimating the intelligence of the average Get Bigger.
You have a chance if YOU QUIT SELLING YOURSELF SHORT, and stop believing in some mysterious conspiratorial forces that are excuses to fail or not even try. The danger is you susceede and see how much of your life you wasted on liberal self pitty and excuses for your lack of satisfaction . Take it slow and that nitemare will be realised. Rush in and you'll blow out, perhaps thats where your at.

The only thing GS and Merril have done to me is make me money.Boo Hoo.
Please make it stop....  

The fact that the only investment you talk about is the stock market CONFIRMS to me how little you know about real investors.

The stock market is where the real investors "play" with their money.

Real investors are doing JV partnerships, investing in PPM's, and Pre IPO business.  Of course there is the Hardmoney side to residential and commercial real estate as well.

There is a reason that the only investment that the general public knows about is the stock market.  Because they are too stupid to evaluate real investments, so the government has regulations to protect them.

I'm talking about returns of 1-10% per month.  I am in one investment where it takes a MINIMUM of 250,000 to get into it.

I know several millionaires and don't know any that made their money in the market.

[trab]

The fact that the only investment you talk about is the stock market CONFIRMS to me how little you know about real investors.

The stock market is where the real investors "play" with their money.

Real investors are doing JV partnerships, investing in PPM's, and Pre IPO business.  Of course there is the Hardmoney side to residential and commercial real estate as well.

There is a reason that the only investment that the general public knows about is the stock market.  Because they are too stupid to evaluate real investments, so the government has regulations to protect them.

I'm talking about returns of 1-10% per month.  I am in one investment where it takes a MINIMUM of 250,000 to get into it.

I know several millionaires and don't know any that made their money in the market.

You are another shit talker....

PPL with money dont tend to talk/ brag numbers

Another patheic GB phony.

[War-Horse]

You are another shit talker....

PPL with money dont tend to talk/ brag numbers

Another patheic GB phony.

Storm is right.   Hard money is where its at.........property, RE, % company buyouts...etc.           

 Anyone has to be concerned with people who will depend on 401k's and IRA,s for retirement.......(stock market)   Breaking them will break me......

P.S.   Trab, do yourself a favor........... delete your account.

[MB_722]

P.S.   Trab, do yourself a favor........... delete your account.

hehehe 

[Thin Lizzy]

Im no pro trader, I know a couple... Neuro gives no reason.. Where/ WHy is support going to breach?

Why do you assume that just because someone describes the realities of beating the stock market that they know nothing about it? Don't act like you're some kind of stock market genius because you trade Level II. Anyone who can afford $10 a month can get level II. I trade only S&P 100 stocks. Why? Because they're very popular for shorting, plus, when the market rallies, those stocks are most likely to follow the trend. Most of the nasdaq stocks are a crap shoot. I prefer to go for the steady dime rather than the seldom dollar.

You sound like a typical know-it-all 25 year old wannabe guru. I've seen thousands of your type come and go.

[windsor88]

Instead of pissing matches why don't you guys post your portfolios to determine who is the Stock market guru?

[trab]

Instead of pissing matches why don't you guys post your portfolios to determine who is the Stock market guru?

People with real money dont tend to brag it or even talk about it.

[trab]

Why do you assume that just because someone describes the realities of beating the stock market that they know nothing about it? Don't act like you're some kind of stock market genius because you trade Level II. Anyone who can afford $10 a month can get level II. I trade only S&P 100 stocks. Why? Because they're very popular for shorting, plus, when the market rallies, those stocks are most likely to follow the trend. Most of the nasdaq stocks are a crap shoot. I prefer to go for the steady dime rather than the seldom dollar.

You sound like a typical know-it-all 25 year old wannabe guru. I've seen thousands of your type come and go.

YOur steady S&P dime is turning (turned) to copper.

If you think that the S&P is where the short shooters should live your a fool.
Volatility cries to be shorted. And that is much more common and extreme on the NAS.
Total short interest is another issue, but average good Technical trader is way better off in the NAS if shorting is his game.
Its all good with a decent entry and risk/reward, but you have less human manipulation exposure in 4 letter land.

"The S&P is better for shorting than the NASDAQ  "

Oh Brother,,,,,

Clearly a few here have never made a order entry. I highly encourage them to, Ill enjoy spending some of your money.



PPT?
Greenie points out that long term rates are the ONLY thing that can control global markets these days, and even central banks are out of control.
But he is wagering on a recession, Thats like saying it might get cold in Green Bay this week.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22915257/