Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[stormshadow]

as expected, a "cooked" durable goods number was just released. (up 2.5%)  

U.S. April Durable Goods Ex-Transportation Unexpectedly Jump

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods excluding transportation equipment unexpectedly rose in April by the most in nine months, signaling demand from abroad may be helping factories ride out the housing-led economic slowdown.

Excluding demand for airplanes and autos, which tends to be volatile, bookings for goods meant to last several years rose 2.5 percent, the most since July, the Commerce Department said today in Washington

NT

NT,

If all of these numbers are "cooked" as you put it, then how is anyone to make an accurate assessment of the economy?

What is the private sector using?  Surely the real investors, hedge funds, and private equity dogs are not following this garbage?

[youandme]

NT is giving you the straight shit.

Hedge funders (some) are allowed to short the market, and make money, also they play global (global sucks, markets are related)

It is not a stock market, but a market of stocks, most sectors and industries are underperforming even during this time, when some are supposed to be doing so-so, and it's May, so the liquidity in the market sucks.

The numbers are "cooked" since those numbers represent discounting, by contractors and homebuilders, who have MASSIVE inventory, and are wheeling and dealing with no down payments and slashing the prices in order to fill the homes that they have built, this looks good on the books, but bad in the pockets.


An "accurate" assessment of the economy comes at bottoms and at lows.
You know you have hit a good economy when public sentiment as well as business PR is high, you have hit or you begin to hit low when they diverge givt says good vs business and public saying bad.

[Neurotoxin]

NT,

If all of these numbers are "cooked" as you put it, then how is anyone to make an accurate assessment of the economy?

What is the private sector using?  Surely the real investors, hedge funds, and private equity dogs are not following this garbage?

SS, the people "in the know" understand how the system works, and that's all that really matters. the general public is both blind and clueless, and always will be.  if they invest, they just come along for the ride....not knowing how or why. (not unlike most stock brokers)

with regards to our current bear market, the PPT's job is to create "bear market rallies." (short cover rallies) these BS type rallies slow down the pace of decent, suck in unsavvy investors, as well as help prevent a market crash type of scenario.


just my opinion.


NT

 

[benz]

im at you /proxy/ sniffing your /packets/

Did you predict your homosexual brother's dead lol

[stormshadow]

SS, the people "in the know" understand how the system works, and that's all that really matters. the general public is both blind and clueless, and always will be.  if they invest, they just come along for the ride....not knowing how or why. (not unlike most stock brokers)

with regards to our current bear market, the PPT's job is to create "bear market rallies." (short cover rallies) these BS type rallies slow down the pace of decent, suck in unsavvy investors, as well as help prevent a market crash type of scenario.


just my opinion.


NT

 

NT,

You claim that most stock brokers are just as dumb as the people handing them their money?

[Neurotoxin]

NT,

You claim that most stock brokers are just as dumb as the people handing them their money?

correct, most (not all) stock brokers are little more than well dressed salesmen  . their expertise usually doesn't extend into how markets operate.

with few exceptions, a brokers main job is to sell you equities. knowledge of when to enter or exit is beyond their pay grade.

i spoke with one broker around the time our market was getting ready to fail at the 14,000 area. i asked him, what will you tell your clients when the market tanks ? his answer: "i'll tell them to cost average down." 



NT

 


 

[stormshadow]

correct, most (not all) stock brokers are little more than well dressed salesmen  . their expertise usually doesn't extend into how markets operate.

with few exceptions, a brokers main job is to sell you equities. knowledge of when to enter or exit is beyond their pay grade.

i spoke with one broker around the time our market was getting ready to fail at the 14,000 area. i asked him, what will you tell your clients when the market tanks ? his answer: "i'll tell them to cost average down." 

NT
 

So the Broker reads the daily news and can parrot to his clients that there are "signs of recovery" in the market?

When the market goes up, "BUY MORE"

When the market crashes "BUY MORE / DOLLAR COST AVERAGE"

Hence the Millions spent on brainwashing the general public to buy stocks and mutual funds.

[youandme]

"i'll tell them to cost average down." 

whoa crap, wonder how many people really did average down?

[Neurotoxin]

whoa crap, wonder how many people really did average down?

the vast majority (through ignorance) cost average down.



NT

[Neurotoxin]

the 600 point drop in the market last week should encourage a new round of cooked numbers this week.

U.S. Stocks Rise, Led by Commodities Producers as Oil Climbs


 May 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a second day as a rebound in oil prices spurred a late-day rally in energy shares and industrial companies climbed on better-than-forecast durable goods orders.




guys, no surprise here. government reported durable goods UP 2.5% in April. 




NT

[Neurotoxin]

Sales of Spam rise as consumers trim food costs. 



Associated Press
Wednesday May 28, 2008
MILWAUKEE — Love it, hate it or laugh at it — at least it's inexpensive.

Sales of Spam — that much maligned meat — are rising as consumers are turning more to lunch meats and other lower-cost foods to extend their already stretched food budgets.

Food prices are increasing faster than they've risen since 1990, at 4 percent in the U.S. last year, according to the Agriculture Department. Many staples are rising even faster, with white bread up 13 percent last year, bacon up 7 percent and peanut butter up 9 percent.

There's no sign of a slowdown. Food inflation is running at an annualized rate of 6.1 percent as of April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.




when the consumer must stoop to this level, it sends a strong, clear message.

 

NT 

[Neurotoxin]

Inflation concerns rise as Dow Chemical signals 20% boost



May 29,2008 USA TODAY
Dow Chemical's announcement Wednesday that it would raise prices as much as 20% is just the most recent of a flurry of price hikes by major companies, affecting everything from tissues to coffee to paint.

The big concern: As energy and commodity prices soar, cost increases will seep into areas beyond food and energy, sparking a full-blown episode of inflation.
 
So far, government statistics say that hasn't happened.   Core prices — those minus food and energy — have risen just 2.3% the 12 months ended April, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. 



NT
 

[bigdumbbell]

Inflation concerns rise as Dow Chemical signals 20% boost



May 29,2008 USA TODAY
Dow Chemical's announcement Wednesday that it would raise prices as much as 20% is just the most recent of a flurry of price hikes by major companies, affecting everything from tissues to coffee to paint.

The big concern: As energy and commodity prices soar, cost increases will seep into areas beyond food and energy, sparking a full-blown episode of inflation.
 
So far, government statistics say that hasn't happened.   Core prices — those minus food and energy — have risen just 2.3% the 12 months ended April, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. 



NT
 

up, up and away 

[Neurotoxin]

btw, GDP and jobless claims will be released this morning.

the "numbers" should be interesting.   



NT

[Neurotoxin]

btw, GDP and jobless claims will be released this morning.

the "numbers" should be interesting.   



NT

just released:


U.S. economic growth (GDP) in the first quarter is revised higher to 0.9% from a previous reading of 0.6%. 



NT

[Neurotoxin]

Wall Street gains as investors welcome an improved first-quarter GDP reading.


May 29, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Thursday as investors cheered sliding oil prices, a rallying dollar and a report that showed first-quarter GDP growth was better than initially reported.




NT

[Neurotoxin]

Wall Street gains as investors welcome an improved first-quarter GDP reading.


May 29, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Thursday as investors cheered sliding oil prices, a rallying dollar and a report that showed first-quarter GDP growth was better than initially reported.

let me explain how GDP "increased". as many of you know, when calculating for inflation, food and energy are EXCLUDED from the equation.

for calulating GDP, food and energy prices are INCLUDED to increase overall GDP numbers.


it's a can't lose system ! 


NT

[Neurotoxin]

guys, today's business report.


U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending Gains Slowed in April  




May 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. personal spending slowed in April after record fuel costs, a slump in home values and a deteriorating job market eroded consumer confidence.

Separate reports showed business activity dropped for a fourth month in May and consumer sentiment decreased to the lowest level since 1980.


NT

[stormshadow]

guys, today's business report.


U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending Gains Slowed in April  




May 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. personal spending slowed in April after record fuel costs, a slump in home values and a deteriorating job market eroded consumer confidence.

Separate reports showed business activity dropped for a fourth month in May and consumer sentiment decreased to the lowest level since 1980.


NT

Spending went down, but GDP went up?

[Bindare_Dundat]

Spending went down, but GDP went up?

hahahahaha


 

[War-Horse]

let me explain how GDP "increased". as many of you know, when calculating for inflation, food and energy are EXCLUDED from the equation.

for calulating GDP, food and energy prices are INCLUDED to increase overall GDP numbers.


it's a can't lose system ! 


NT

Now that answers everything....

[Neurotoxin]

guys, no surprise here.



Consumers Lean on Rebate Checks for Bills and Gas


New York Times
June 1, 2008
MIAMI — The federal government is showering households with tax rebates to spur spending and invigorate a troubled economy. But many Americans are so consumed with debt and the soaring price of gasoline that they are opting to save the money or use it to pay bills, according to surveys, sales data and interviews with people from Florida to California.
 
The Treasury handed out more than $50 billion of the $100 billion in tax rebates  it plans to distribute to 132 million households. But only once in the last six weeks have chain stores registered an increase in sales.



NT

[Neurotoxin]

NO NEW MONEY IS ENTERING THIS MARKET.

guys, be careful.

[stormshadow]

NT,

When you started this thread, the Dow was at 12,987

The Dow is currently at 12,457 with the absolute lowest point being 11,740

Was this the Crash you were predicting?

[Neurotoxin]

NT,

When you started this thread, the Dow was at 12,987

The Dow is currently at 12,457 with the absolute lowest point being 11,740

Was this the Crash you were predicting?

SS, your numbers are incorrect.

i started the thread at 13,167.00.....the Dow then rallied to nearly 13,800.00 by December. at Dow 13,800.00, i continued to say GET OUT if you wanted to save your money. (my old posts do not lie)

from Dow 13,800.00 it dropped to 11,700.00, a 2,100 point loss in the Dow at a time when everyone was happy with the economy! NO ONE was talking recession....but me. i spoke about the coming recession in Nov. when the world was giddy!  many people on GB thought i was crazy talking recession last Nov. (not anymore) 

the market closed today at 12,500.00. down another 134.50 points. this past Oct. the Dow was at 14,198.00.......today it's 12,500.00. i still expect it to head lower......in the coming months. a slooooooow bleed.

keep in mind, without an aggressive PPT, this market would be sitting at Dow 9,800.00


SS, what's your point? 


NT