Author Topic: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent  (Read 1313 times)

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What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« on: November 25, 2007, 11:24:55 AM »
He says he doesn't plan on it.  That is his position of course, so he can make as big as impact as possible in iowa.

What about his money?  He has close to ten million in his coffers.  What is he planning on spending that on?

It's obvious he won't win the republican nod.  It's possible he's using the repub nomination process to brand himself with repub voters as "the republican who wants to end the war" so when they see him in the general election - he's not an independent in their mind - he's a republican.

THink about a Paul/Bloomberg ticket.

Bloomy would cancel out the NY vote that Hill/Rudy wlill be fighting for anyway.
Imagine the debates.  Paul is a smart man, hilary is smart.  Rudy is strong.

When the majority of the audience wants to leave the war (as 75% of the nation does) and both Hilary/Rudy want to continue the war, Paul is going to have a legit chance.


If he can win the anti-war sliver of repubs, the youth, and the far left dems.... he could win it all.  Imagine the sweeping changes.  Mindboggling.

Hugo Chavez

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2007, 11:42:25 AM »
I've been saying for a while that it's his only shot and due to the support he's getting, I think he'll do exactly that and stand a better chance this year than ever before.  A lot of people pissed at both parties and switching independent.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2007, 11:48:15 AM »
I'd put his chances at about zero.  Not enough money.  Too late in the game.  Will not be on the ballot in all 50 states.  Not only would he not win enough electoral votes, I doubt he could win a single state, including his home state of Texas.

Let's get real here.  The man is an internet warrior but has yet to make any substantial movement in the polls of his own party--which he is on the verge of abandoning. 

A strong, extremely wealthy candidate could make some noise, but that's not Paul. 
 

Hugo Chavez

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2007, 11:53:47 AM »
I'd put his chances at about zero.  Not enough money.  Too late in the game.  Will not be on the ballot in all 50 states.  Not only would he not win enough electoral votes, I doubt he could win a single state, including his home state of Texas.

Let's get real here.  The man is an internet warrior but has yet to make any substantial movement in the polls of his own party--which he is on the verge of abandoning. 

A strong, extremely wealthy candidate could make some noise, but that's not Paul. 
 
HUH? What am I missing?  Sorry you're wrong, if Ron Paul does not win the primary, he will be able to get on the ballots as an independent.  What are you trying to say, they have the ballots printed before the primary is over :D  Just watch the money that will fly at him as an independent.  A lot of people like him but aren't ready to toss money at a republican label and republican fundraising this year shows it! 

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2007, 12:14:24 PM »
HUH? What am I missing?  Sorry you're wrong, if Ron Paul does not win the primary, he will be able to get on the ballots as an independent.  What are you trying to say, they have the ballots printed before the primary is over :D  Just watch the money that will fly at him as an independent.  A lot of people like him but aren't ready to toss money at a republican label and republican fundraising this year shows it! 

No, I'm saying the process is very complicated and varies from state to state and that by the time he decides to run as an independent, only months before the election, it will be too late. 

Here is why:

How do I get on the presidential ballot?
Hopeful
Emmaus, Pennsylvania
 
Dear Hopeful:
The road to the U.S. presidential ballot is long, hard, and expensive. First, you should know there isn't one ballot for the presidency -- there are 50 different ballots, one for each state. The U.S. Constitution does not specify how the president should be nominated, so it is left to the individual states to decide the process. As a result, each state has its own requirements for a candidate to make it onto its ballot.
Since the early 20th century, the two major political parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, have controlled the presidential nominations. Through primary elections held in each state, the parties select their nominees. This may be the easiest way for you to get in the election because states automatically put the Democratic and Republican candidates on the presidential ballot. Of course, you still have to work within the party to get your name on their short list.

Third-party and independent candidates have a much tougher time of it. States may require a potential candidate get a large number of voter signatures, pay steep filing fees, and follow lots of complicated procedures before he or she can get on the ballot. According to Richard Winger, publisher of the nonpartisan Ballot Access News, such a candidate may have to gather as many as 750,000 signatures and fork over filing fees of $8,100 to get on the presidential ballot in all 50 states. Even for a motivated and organized candidate, these requirements are daunting. For example, in the 2000 presidential election, the high-profile Green Party candidate, Ralph Nader, didn't make it onto the ballot in three states.

Many, but not all, states allow voters to write in a candidate's name on the ballot itself. States may limit this to just the primaries or open it to the general election. The write-in candidates are often required to register in advance and pay the same filing fees as other candidates. Also, court rulings have made it possible for more states to eliminate write-in voting completely.

So if you want to get on the ballot, you've got your work cut out for you.
 
http://ask.yahoo.com/20030704.html

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2007, 12:31:15 PM »
It would be sweet if an american president were elected as an independent.

What is the chance of Ron Paul running as an Ind. ?

One thing that I find alittle bit odd, is that the media doesn't educate or inform the public on the candidates and their views. Media coverage is determined by party lines rather than the individual.
There isn't alot of room to debate.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2007, 12:37:53 PM »
It would be sweet if an american president were elected as an independent.

What is the chance of Ron Paul running as an Ind. ?

One thing that I find alittle bit odd, is that the media doesn't educate or inform the public on the candidates and their views. Media coverage is determined by party lines rather than the individual.
There isn't alot of room to debate.


I agree.  I thought the Ross Perot candidacy was great for the country (before he turned out to be a little weird).  I was set to vote for him at one point.  It would be nice to see someone shake things up and loosen the grip the two-party system has on the country. 

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2007, 12:51:39 PM »
Look, if Ron is thinking independent, he's going to drop after not winning the early primaries... Ron getting signatures is hardly going to be an issue and that's a fact, he has way more supporters than you give him credit for and again the money will really flow in when he dumps the republican deathlabel.  He'll be on the ballots as an independent if he wants it.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2007, 01:19:35 PM »
Look, if Ron is thinking independent, he's going to drop after not winning the early primaries... Ron getting signatures is hardly going to be an issue and that's a fact, he has way more supporters than you give him credit for and again the money will really flow in when he dumps the republican deathlabel.  He'll be on the ballots as an independent if he wants it.

WHat month do independents have to be on the GENERAL election ballot?

They cannot print them already - we know that candidates wait a while after winning the primaries to pick their running mates.

Does anyone know what date?


And BB - when you mention he doesn't have enough money - can you tell us how much Paul, Rudy, and Mitt have at the moment?  Ron Paul has gotten 9.1 million in this Q with a month left.  He got 5 mil last quarter.  He's got money.  And he practically has Lou DObbs' endorsement, as well as every college kid in America (most lol) so he could raise more in a quick once he got on the ballot.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2007, 01:21:59 PM »
Look, if Ron is thinking independent, he's going to drop after not winning the early primaries... Ron getting signatures is hardly going to be an issue and that's a fact, he has way more supporters than you give him credit for and again the money will really flow in when he dumps the republican deathlabel.  He'll be on the ballots as an independent if he wants it.

We'll see.  He would have just a few months to get as many 750,000 signatures in multiple states, something Ralph Nader couldn't do.  He couldn't run a 50-state campaign.  Unless he could get a running mate who is enormously wealthy, it would be a token candidacy.  

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2007, 01:23:21 PM »
We'll see.  He would have just a few months to get as many 750,000 signatures in multiple states, something Ralph Nader couldn't do.  He couldn't run a 50-state campaign.  Unless he could get a running mate who is enormously wealthy, it would be a token candidacy.  

Hi Mike Bloomberg.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2007, 01:26:57 PM »
WHat month do independents have to be on the GENERAL election ballot?

They cannot print them already - we know that candidates wait a while after winning the primaries to pick their running mates.

Does anyone know what date?


And BB - when you mention he doesn't have enough money - can you tell us how much Paul, Rudy, and Mitt have at the moment?  Ron Paul has gotten 9.1 million in this Q with a month left.  He got 5 mil last quarter.  He's got money.  And he practically has Lou DObbs' endorsement, as well as every college kid in America (most lol) so he could raise more in a quick once he got on the ballot.

I don't know how much each candidate has, but the following puts the peanuts Ron Paul has raised in perspective:  

In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Campaign_costs

Not only that, but the two parties have national conventions that give them enormous national exposure.  There is neither the time nor money for someone like Ron Paul to organize, pay for, and hold a national convention.  

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2007, 01:32:02 PM »
We'll see.  He would have just a few months to get as many 750,000 signatures in multiple states, something Ralph Nader couldn't do.  He couldn't run a 50-state campaign.  Unless he could get a running mate who is enormously wealthy, it would be a token candidacy.  
he dwarfs nader...  Getting that many would be nothing for Ron Paul and that I would bet money on.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2007, 01:37:00 PM »
he dwarfs nader...  Getting that many would be nothing for Ron Paul and that I would bet money on.

Does he really?  Maybe today he does, but Nader has been around for a long time, has good name recognition, and draws a lot of liberal voters.   

If I were a betting man I would bet you that Ron Paul could not get on the ballot in all 50 states only months before the November elections.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2007, 02:44:20 PM »
Does he really?  Maybe today he does, but Nader has been around for a long time, has good name recognition, and draws a lot of liberal voters.   

If I were a betting man I would bet you that Ron Paul could not get on the ballot in all 50 states only months before the November elections.
Are you a betting man?  If he decides to give it a try, I'll take the bet on day 1 of his announcement.  Doesn't have to be a big bet. Only I would have to bet 49 because Mississippi deadline for independents is retarded.  Most of the other early states are western states like Idaho, Montana, Utah and South Dakota and I don't think he'll have a hard time getting them with a short deadline.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2007, 07:21:51 PM »
In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.  

I don't think any of them have that much.  hilary and Obama are getting close.  Romney and Rudy are averaging around 10 mil per Q.  $100M by end of december sounds like a very high estimate.

Remember - the "taken seriously" tag is applied by some to remove some candidates from contention.  Gravel was removed because he didn't meet a random number made up by NBC Pol director Chuck Todd on the day of the debate.  It's how they filter the group, sure, but it's very subjective.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2007, 07:23:18 PM »
Does he really?  Maybe today he does, but Nader has been around for a long time, has good name recognition, and draws a lot of liberal voters.   

If I were a betting man I would bet you that Ron Paul could not get on the ballot in all 50 states only months before the November elections.

Paul wouldn't need to get on all 50.

Remember, he doesn't need 51% of electoral votes.  He needs 34%.   Three parties.

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2007, 09:05:20 PM »
Are you a betting man?  If he decides to give it a try, I'll take the bet on day 1 of his announcement.  Doesn't have to be a big bet. Only I would have to bet 49 because Mississippi deadline for independents is retarded.  Most of the other early states are western states like Idaho, Montana, Utah and South Dakota and I don't think he'll have a hard time getting them with a short deadline.

I have met my quota of no more than one bet per year.  I have a Teddy's Bigger (veggie) Burger lunch riding on the Niners finishing with a better record than the Eagles.  Not looking too good for me right about now.  My son is licking his chops.   >:( 

Let's just bump this thread if he jumps in as independent. 

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2007, 03:52:27 AM »
Ron Paul - and the permafrost would be near for the entire world. ::)
As empty as paradise

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Re: What if ROn Paul runs as an Independent
« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2007, 05:37:38 AM »
WHat month do independents have to be on the GENERAL election ballot?

They cannot print them already - we know that candidates wait a while after winning the primaries to pick their running mates.

Does anyone know what date?


And BB - when you mention he doesn't have enough money - can you tell us how much Paul, Rudy, and Mitt have at the moment?  Ron Paul has gotten 9.1 million in this Q with a month left.  He got 5 mil last quarter.  He's got money.  And he practically has Lou DObbs' endorsement, as well as every college kid in America (most lol) so he could raise more in a quick once he got on the ballot.

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If Bloomberg ran with him for vice, he would have plenty of money...
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