Mine went in September, and it wasn't a launch console, either. I shipped it back to Microsoft and they sent me a brand new one about a month later.
I'm inclined to think the 30% estimates are way too low. Microsoft set aside enough money for the warrenty extension to fix roughly 10 million units (x $100 per repair). Only 13 million have been sold. The overheating is the result of a design flaw. If you have a system made before they changed the design a few months ago (65nm chip/different heatsink/new heatpipe), it will eventually fail.