Edwards Takes Back Lead in Iowa

[Dos Equis]

The worm turns.  Just when you thought Obama would run away with Iowa. 

Republican numbers look about the same. 


Edwards Takes Back Lead in Iowa

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows John Edwards leading among likely caucus-goers with 30% support, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton at 26% and Sen. Barack Obama at 24%.

This is the first poll to show Edwards ahead of his rivals since summer.

Key finding: Edwards holds a significant advantage "among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate."

In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee leads with 28%, followed by Mitt Romney at 25%, Fred Thompson at 10%, Sen. John McCain at 9%, Rep. Ron Paul at 6%, and Rudy Giuliani also at 6%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/12/18/edwards_takes_back_lead_in_iowa.html

[Hedgehog]

Edwards is white and male.

The most electable candidate for the Democrats.

If they put him as their candidate, they cannot lose.

But with Obama or Clinton, the Republicans have a chance.

It is that simple IMO.

Both Obama and Clinton will get more Republican voters to vote against them, than Edwards.

With Edwards, GOP would have a much harder time mobilizing.

[Dos Equis]

Edwards is white and male.

The most electable candidate for the Democrats.

If they put him as their candidate, they cannot lose.

But with Obama or Clinton, the Republicans have a chance.

It is that simple IMO.

Both Obama and Clinton will get more Republican voters to vote against them, than Edwards.

With Edwards, GOP would have a much harder time mobilizing.

A white male is the most electable candidate for both parties.  Sad but true.

I agree Edwards would be stronger in the general than either Hillary or Obama.   

[Tre]

Edwards is white and male.

The most electable candidate for the Democrats.

If they put him as their candidate, they cannot lose.

But with Obama or Clinton, the Republicans have a chance.

It is that simple IMO.

Both Obama and Clinton will get more Republican voters to vote against them, than Edwards.

With Edwards, GOP would have a much harder time mobilizing.

You and I are totally in agreement over the FACT that Obama and Hillary give the Dems *zero* chance of re-claiming the White House. 

I do NOT, however, agree that Edwards is a slam dunk candidate for them.  He's White, rich, and handsome, but has so far been unable to connect with people at all. 

He's the Democrats' Mitt Romney. 

Here's the math - if Hillary or Obama gets the Democratic nomination, then the Republicans win in a landslide. 

If Edwards gets the nomination, then there will be a reasonably fair fight. 

I still think the Democrats have to do better, but they have not convinced me that they can. 

[Decker]

I still think that the candidates with the biggest bank accounts will win the nominations.

[Dos Equis]

I still think that the candidates with the biggest bank accounts will win the nominations.

That's what usually happens. 

[Dos Equis]

Now a dead heat:

Three Democrats in a dead heat in Iowa
By Paul Steinhauser

     
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Just two weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the Democratic presidential candidates appear to be in a dead heat in the Hawkeye State, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll.

John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are virtually tied for the Democrats' top spot in Iowa.

Thirty percent of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers support Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York as the nominee, with Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois at 28 percent and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina at 26 percent, according to the poll, released Thursday morning.

With the poll's sampling error at plus or minus 4 percentage points, it's a virtual tie for the top spot in Iowa, the first state to vote in the race for the White House.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is at 7 percent, with the remaining Democratic candidates all in the lower single digits.

On the Republican side, 33 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as the nominee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney comes in second place at 25 percent, followed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 11 percent.  See which issues are fueling Iowans' picks »

Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee are tied at 9 percent, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 6 percent, with the rest of the Republican field in the lower single digits.  Watch how different issues point to different candidates »

The margin of error for Republican caucus voters is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

There are only 14 days left until Iowans head out to caucus, but the survey suggests that many voters have yet to make up their minds. One in three likely Democratic caucus-goers say they're still trying to decide whom to support. That number's even higher among likely Republican caucus-goers, with 40 percent still undecided on their choice for the nominee.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland warned that "all these figures should be treated with extra caution, because it is extraordinarily difficult for polls to accurately assess who will attend the caucuses, and Iowans are notorious for making their minds up late in the game."

The survey indicates that Iraq is still the top issue for Democrats, with one in three likely Democratic caucus-goers saying the war is the most important issue in their choice for president. Health care follows at 27 percent with the economy 1 point back.

"Clinton is seen as the candidate who is best able to handle the economy, Iraq, and health care -- the top three issues of concern to Democratic caucus-goers -- with her biggest advantage on health care," Holland said.

The economy appears to be the most pressing issue for Republicans, with one in four likely Republican caucus-goers saying the economy is the most important issue in their choice. That's followed by illegal immigration at 20 percent, abortion at 18 percent, terrorism at 17 percent and the Iraq War at 12 percent.

It appears Iowa Republicans think Romney would do the best job among the GOP White House hopefuls in handling the economy, with 34 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers choosing Romney, 11 points ahead of Huckabee.

"Although Huckabee is the favorite candidate of likely GOP caucus-goers, they admit that other candidates would do a better job on nearly every issue tested. For some, such as terrorism, immigration and Iraq, he finishes in third place," Holland said.

"What's driving the Huckaboom? Abortion. It's the only issue tested on which Huckabee ranks first, indicating that even though he is not a single-issue candidate, he may have single-issue appeal."

It appears the Huckabee vote is the born-again vote, with the poll suggesting his support among Iowans who say they are born-again or evangelical Christians is nearly 30 points higher than among nonevangelicals.

Huckabee served as a Baptist pastor before entering politics. Romney has a 10 point edge among nonevangelical voters.

"There is also a surprising gender gap among likely GOP caucus-goers," says Holland. The poll indicates women prefer Huckabee over Romney by a 40 percent to 18 percent margin. Among men, it's Romney 30 percent and Huckabee 28 percent.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is the favorite of women, older voters, liberals and those making less than $50,000 a year. Obama has an edge among moderates and younger voters; Edwards does best in union households and among married voters.

The poll surveyed 543 Iowa residents who say they are likely to vote in the Democratic caucuses, and 359 who say they are likely to vote in the Republican caucuses. Interviews were conducted by telephone December 14 to 18.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/20/iowa.poll/index.html