I Predict Obama Will Win

[Dos Equis]

The toe sucker speaks.   

I Predict Obama Will Win

Monday, February 11, 2008 3:38 PM

By: Dick Morris

I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend's victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary's inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.

Hillary's results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination.

Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.

March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas' open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).

And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.

And don't bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.

Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.
 
http://www.newsmax.com/morris/I_Predict_Obama_Will_Win/2008/02/11/71853.html

[calmus]

toe sucker

[headhuntersix]

I read the same article this morning....I like Morris, he has real insight into the Clinton's. I find it amazing that Obama continues to win despite not really ironing out his various policies. If he does...he looks just like Clinton....

[calmus]

I read the same article this morning....I like Morris, he has real insight into the Clinton's. I find it amazing that Obama continues to win despite not really ironing out his various policies. If he does...he looks just like Clinton....

No he doesn't.........he doesn't have half the baggage she does.

[Dos Equis]

I read the same article this morning....I like Morris, he has real insight into the Clinton's. I find it amazing that Obama continues to win despite not really ironing out his various policies. If he does...he looks just like Clinton....

I agree.  He is just as far to the left as she is. 

[calmus]

I agree.  He is just as far to the left as she is. 

Probably further.......Clintons like to sit on the fence.

[headhuntersix]

Calmus...yeah I get the baggage...its the policy stuff. Another question...who will he bring in around him....should he make it. mccain is only down a few points from him...the debates will matter.

[calmus]

Calmus...yeah I get the baggage...its the policy stuff. Another question...who will he bring in around him....should he make it. mccain is only down a few points from him...the debates will matter.

As I've mentioned before, if he makes it, the identities of his advisors/cabinet are of some concern to me.  So far he's done a good job of communicating with the elder statesmen of the Democratic party, and I would hope that would continue to hold true.  He seems willing to listen.....rather than to tell.  That i like.  Gates vs. Rumsfeld, if you will.

I wish I could think positive things about McCain............while I am all for a strong America, I do not believe McCain has the capacity or the desire to make the kinds of changes we need to adapt to our current world.  I see him as an old school guy.......and the old school approach is not the most efficient one.

[Mr. Cortisol]

obama is just a child.

when he is elected he will come to getbig for advices.

the only question is, will we recognize his screen name when he posts?

[JOHN MATRIX]

yes Billary is finished
out with the old in with the new

[Tre]

I agree.  He is just as far to the left as she is. 

Obama differs from Hillary in one key area - even though both will surround themselves with intelligent people, Obama will have enough humility to know when others have better policy proposals than he does.  Hillary is all about the opinion polls, but I don't see her getting beyond her arrogance.  We're talking about a woman who has probably gotten away with murder...and she feels she has outsmarted us all.

[Dos Equis]

Obama differs from Hillary in one key area - even though both will surround themselves with intelligent people, Obama will have enough humility to know when others have better policy proposals than he does.  Hillary is all about the opinion polls, but I don't see her getting beyond her arrogance.  We're talking about a woman who has probably gotten away with murder...and she feels she has outsmarted us all.

Good point.  Except for the murder part.   

[Tre]

Although in Texas' open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary.

I'm not so sure about this.

There's two schools of thought:

1) If Republicans work to help defeat Hillary in the primaries, then they *guarantee* she won't be back in the White House.

2) On the hand, if the Republicans work to help Hillary WIN the Democratic nomination, then it gives them a better shot of retaining the White House, because of her unpopularity.  

But if they opt for #2, they'd be in a coin flip situation and might end up regretting that decision.

[Colossus_500]

Based on the pattern I saw while voting this morning in the primaries, I think OBAMA has this all but wrapped.  Word is there's a TON of dirt on McCain coming in the next few months, and it doesn't sound good. 

[headhuntersix]

I would rather have Hil.....Obama gives me nightmares....most Lib senator..great