The Three Trillion Dollar War

[Straw Man]

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080228/BLOG2501/80228087/1071/OPINION03

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article3419840.ece

Barb Arrigo
Can you spare $10,000 for the war?

If a new book is right, and if my math is right, each of us 300 million Americans faces a bill for about $10,000 to cover the immediate costs and some of the longer term costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The book comes out Friday. It is “The Three Trillion Dollar War” by Joseph Stiglitz, who is a Nobel Prize-winning economist. Here’s a McClatchy News Bureau’s story about the book:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/iraq/story/28891.html

Stiglitz and his co-author arrive at their figure by adding operational costs plus other factors. He also assigns a value to the lives cut short (3,973 troop deaths in Iraq as of today, according to the AP count). So the bill may not be entirely due in the form of taxes. But the estimate also skips some things that probably should be included. Here’s one part of the McClatchy report:

“When other factors are added — such as interest on debt, future borrowing for war expenses, the cost of a continued military presence in Iraq and lifetime health-care and counseling for veterans — they think that the wars' costs range from $5 trillion to $7 trillion
When does the cost of war become an issue for you?

I certainly don’t think the cost of war should be the sole or even a major determinant in the decision (although it was not helpful that the administration so badly underestimated Iraq costs five years ago). But I do think it’s bad policy to go deeply into debt at the same time and assume somehow everything will work out in the future. Americans should be making some sacrifices at home, too.

[Decker]

I'm not worried.

The Iraqi oil revenues should kick-in any day now and pay for the liberation.

That's what the president said.

[Straw Man]

I know you're being sarcastic but I am starting to get really worried.

We MUST get out of Iraq or we're going to be (if not already) is such a financial bind that we may never fully recover for a generation or more, if ever.

[calmus]

I know you're being sarcastic but I am starting to get really worried.

We MUST get out of Iraq or we're going to be (if not already) is such a financial bind that we may never fully recover for a generation or more, if ever.

Go to the polls, and volunteer to drive people to the polls.  We can vote ourselves out of the unfolding decline and fall of the American Empire.

[240 is Back]

I'm not worried.

The Iraqi oil revenues should kick-in any day now and pay for the liberation.

That's what the president said.

i actually believe him on this.

Those oil revenues are huge.  Iraq has 50 to 75 tril in saleable oil.  We have dibs on 80% of that.

In ten years, the war will have been a good investment.  ROI will be great.  That ignores the legality and loss of life, but in a strictly business sense, it will have been worth it to the businessmen in charge.

[Straw Man]

i actually believe him on this.

Those oil revenues are huge.  Iraq has 50 to 75 tril in saleable oil.  We have dibs on 80% of that.

In ten years, the war will have been a good investment.  ROI will be great.  That ignores the legality and loss of life, but in a strictly business sense, it will have been worth it to the businessmen in charge.

We don't have "dibs" on shit.

That's Iraqi oil and they can do whatever they want

[MB_722]

I'm not worried.

The Iraqi oil revenues should kick-in any day now and pay for the liberation.

That's what the president said.

LOL and you can always believe the President, right? 

I know you're being sarcastic but I am starting to get really worried.

We MUST get out of Iraq or we're going to be (if not already) is such a financial bind that we may never fully recover for a generation or more, if ever.

I don't like using language that is fear mongering, I still believe people are oblivious to what is happening. Once it starts to affect them at a local level, then it will be too late. 

[MB_722]

We don't have "dibs" on shit.

hahaha   

[Decker]

i actually believe him on this.

Those oil revenues are huge.  Iraq has 50 to 75 tril in saleable oil.  We have dibs on 80% of that.

In ten years, the war will have been a good investment.  ROI will be great.  That ignores the legality and loss of life, but in a strictly business sense, it will have been worth it to the businessmen in charge.

The problem with this is that you are assuming the oil companies will willingly part with one thin dime of their profits for the general public's benefit.

I don't see that happening.

[240 is Back]

We don't have "dibs" on shit.

That's Iraqi oil and they can do whatever they want

Sorry, but contractually, regardless of what their future admins or our future admins decide, that nation has signed over 80% of oil exploration rights to the US of A.

Obama can't change it, and AlMaliki's successor one day cannot change it.

bases are there to ensure it all runs smoothly.  You can't ask a guy to leave when ten of his friends are in your living room cleaning their guns, now can you?

[240 is Back]

The problem with this is that you are assuming the oil companies will willingly part with one thin dime of their profits for the general public's benefit.

You're completely right here.  The greedy SOBs will do nothing to help anyone.

But...

Those oil companies are paying record taxes as well, even with all the brekas they're getting.  .80 times 50 tril in oil is a lot of oil.  And it's all kept in dollars, ensuring dollar stays relevant.  And it is piped out of US ports, ensuring china cannot grow as fast as she wants to.  And eventually it will be hte oil companies using this $ to fund alternative energies - they're not against it, they just want to be running it when fossil fuels run out. 

We didn't steal the oil.  We stole drilling and selling control of the oil.

[Straw Man]

Sorry, but contractually, regardless of what their future admins or our future admins decide, that nation has signed over 80% of oil exploration rights to the US of A.

Obama can't change it, and AlMaliki's successor one day cannot change it.

bases are there to ensure it all runs smoothly.  You can't ask a guy to leave when ten of his friends are in your living room cleaning their guns, now can you?

1.  The Iraqi Hydrocarbon law has not been passed.
2.  Laws don't mean shit, especially in the middle east
3.  The US Govt is not in the Oil biz and not one fucking penny will ever come back to the US Treasury.

[240 is Back]

i agree the war was based on a lie.

But...

we're there now.  We've spent the $ - the initial investment - and leaving now would mean it's a total loss.  At least now the oil stays in dollars, we won't have any fuel shortage here, and we can all look in the mirror and say the majority of people bought the lie hook, line, and sinker.

They told us they would do this.  We elected them.

PNAC 2000 - months before the election - Cheney, rummy, wolfy, bolton, jeb, and crew put their plan in writing.  it's been executed flawlessly.  They said they'd do it, we gave them the keys, and they did it.  In ten years, we will be stronger because of it.  We're just mad we were lied to about that silly WMD story.

[240 is Back]

1.  The Iraqi Hydrocarbon law has not been passed.
2.  Laws don't mean shit, especially in the middle east
3.  The US Govt is not in the Oil biz and not one fucking penny will ever come back to the US Treasury.

1. I thought it had - my mistake if I'm wrong - link?  Anyway, it will.  We'll twist that arm.
2. Which is why we have two dozen bases in iraq and a green zone in their capital city.
3. In tax dollars, the $ will come back to our treasury.  Exxon mobil paid $30 bil in taxes last year, I believe.

[Straw Man]

1. I thought it had - my mistake if I'm wrong - link?  Anyway, it will.  We'll twist that arm.
2. Which is why we have two dozen bases in iraq and a green zone in their capital city.
3. In tax dollars, the $ will come back to our treasury.  Exxon mobil paid $30 bil in taxes last year, I believe.

1.  bits and pieces have been passed but not the part that Bush and his cronies care about (which enriches them and not the US Treasury)

2. We can't afford to maintain an occupation

3. Tax dollars from oil companies will NEVER come close to paying back our investment

4. Laws don't matter because the current Iraqi govt. have no true authority or control in their own country.

[240 is Back]

Dude,

If haliburton is pumping the oil along US-built pipelines into US ships which takes it to US refineries, which ships it to US gas stations to be sold in US dollars...

and Iraq decides to fck with any step of this process...

what do you suppose people in our green zone - located a few miles from their presidential mansion - will do?

Yes, we will smack the shit out of them.  We guard the pipeline.  they can deal with the shit in the cities.

[240 is Back]

Hilary admitted - we're staying in Iraq because that's where the oil is.
Bush says we aren't leaving because terrorists would seize control of oil assets.

Obama is playing ball too, promising to have a 'presence' there thru his term.

nothign will change. we're just pissing in the wind arguing about it.

[Straw Man]

Dude,

If haliburton is pumping the oil along US-built pipelines into US ships which takes it to US refineries, which ships it to US gas stations to be sold in US dollars...

and Iraq decides to fck with any step of this process...

what do you suppose people in our green zone - located a few miles from their presidential mansion - will do?

Yes, we will smack the shit out of them.  We guard the pipeline.  they can deal with the shit in the cities.

None of that puts $$$ back in the US Treasury

Also, none of that seems to be happening any time soon.

The companies that will benefit are in no hurry to flood the market with oil (lowering the price and their profits). 

None of this matters if the governmet of Iraq ever consolidates power and decides it wants the US out of their country.

BTW - in your best case scenario we get a few billion back in taxes on a few TRILLION in investment

[Decker]

You're completely right here.  The greedy SOBs will do nothing to help anyone.

But...

Those oil companies are paying record taxes as well, even with all the brekas they're getting.  .80 times 50 tril in oil is a lot of oil.  And it's all kept in dollars, ensuring dollar stays relevant.  And it is piped out of US ports, ensuring china cannot grow as fast as she wants to.  And eventually it will be hte oil companies using this $ to fund alternative energies - they're not against it, they just want to be running it when fossil fuels run out. 

We didn't steal the oil.  We stole drilling and selling control of the oil.

I'm not sure we can count on that tax dollar support:  U.S. oil and gas companies have 882 subsidiaries in tax haven countries.  http://www.truthout.org/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/4/5332

The Greatest Rip-Off In Texas - Oil Companies Haven't Paid Their Taxes In Years http://ezinearticles.com/?The-Greatest-Rip-Off-In-Texas-Oil-Companies-Havent-Paid-Their-Taxes-In-Years&id=790685

The oil business is already one the most tax subsidized businesses in the US.

If the US pushes them to pay taxes on their operations, they can just incorporate in another country or use one of their shell companies to avoid taxation.

I have zero faith in big business to willingly do anything requiring sacrifice for the USA's general good.  Our history really bears out that notion.
 

[Straw Man]

Decker - excellent points

240 - I hope I'm wrong and you're right but I'm just not as optimistic as you are.

[Decker]

Decker - excellent points

240 - I hope I'm wrong and you're right but I'm just not as optimistic as you are.

Thanks.  It sort of sucks that we have to discuss the constant scamming of this administration.

You know, most of the real horror stories won't come out until after Bush is out of office...just like it was with Reagan.

The long-term damage will make almost any american cringe.

[240 is Back]

I could very well be wrong.   My only hope is that they're doing what's best for the longterm,, while it's going to suck in the short term.  Historically, that has been the case.  FDR was unpopular in his day, but we're probably glad he did the japanese oil embargo, let pearl harbor happen, then ran over hitler and put the wheels in motion to set up shop in many countries in the world - we live better today because of it.

With the info transparency we have now, FDR might have been exposed as bush has.  Back then, you believed what your radio told you.

[Straw Man]

Thanks.  It sort of sucks that we have to discuss the constant scamming of this administration.

You know, most of the real horror stories won't come out until after Bush is out of office...just like it was with Reagan.

The long-term damage will make almost any american cringe.

yes and most will be oblivious or will want to re-write history to align it with their own personal beliefs.

[Straw Man]

I could very well be wrong.   My only hope is that they're doing what's best for the longterm,, while it's going to suck in the short term.  Historically, that has been the case.  FDR was unpopular in his day, but we're probably glad he did the japanese oil embargo, let pearl harbor happen, then ran over hitler and put the wheels in motion to set up shop in many countries in the world - we live better today because of it.

With the info transparency we have now, FDR might have been exposed as bush has.  Back then, you believed what your radio told you.

240 - I think you're making the assumption that the Bush & Co actually care about the current or long term health of this country.

[240 is Back]

240 - I think you're making the assumption that the Bush & Co actually care about the current or long term health of this country.

I believe they do.

Really, even though they serve big business, I think they have our LT interest in mind.

A $3T war to ensure china doesn't buy $50-75 til of oil... many businessmen would take that.

Bush and cheney were very rich before taking office, so I can't believe they did it for the money.  Cheney served in govt his whole life, adn made $36M the year before he entered office, as CEo of halib.  most men would have retired and drank fruity drinks and lived the good life.  Instead, he enters the most stressful job in the world, to be hated by the world, and for what?  He believes in it.

Now there are connections - business and govt - that are just going to remain there.  They keep each other alive, and keep the country functioning.  A recession hurts walmart as much as it hurts anyone.  Big Biz doesn't want one. 

I think Bush and Co really do care about what is best for the USA longterm.  We're about to have a recession, but will we recover?  Yes.  Will we be stronger with that giant base and oil tap in themiddle east? heck yes. 

know that I spent 18 months complaining about it before I came to the realization I'm at now.  I admit it was lies, and greed and exploitation.  But I think in the long run, we will be stronger, if only because these men spent their lives in govt, and the goal of govt is always a stronger USA, and it's always worked out that way.

I could be wrong, who knows.