Author Topic: Al-Sadr wins again  (Read 2463 times)

calmus

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Al-Sadr wins again
« on: April 01, 2008, 04:52:43 PM »
How Moqtada al-Sadr Won in Basra
By Charles Crain/Baghdad

The Iraqi military's offensive in Basra was supposed to demonstrate the power of the central government in Baghdad. Instead it has proven the continuing relevance of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Sadr's militia, the Mahdi Army, stood its ground in several days of heavy fighting with Iraqi soldiers backed up by American and British air power. But perhaps more important than the manner in which the militia fought is the manner in which it stopped fighting. On Sunday Sadr issued a call for members of the Mahdi Army to stop appearing in the streets with their weapons and to cease attacks on government installations. Within a day, the fighting had mostly ceased. It was an ominous answer to a question posed for months by U.S. military observes: Is Sadr still the leader of a unified movement and military force? The answer appears to be yes.

In the view of many American troops and officers, the Mahdi Army had splintered irretrievably into a collection of independent operators and criminal gangs. Now, however, the conclusion of the conflict in Basra shows that when Sadr speaks, the militia listens.

That apparent authority is in marked contrast to the weakness of Iraq's Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki. He traveled south to Basra with his security ministers to supervise the operation personally. After a few days of intense fighting he extended his previously announced deadline for surrender and offered militants cash in exchange for their weapons. Yet in the cease-fire announcement the militia explicitly reserved the right to hold onto its weapons. And the very fact of the cease-fire flies in the face of Maliki's proclamation that there would be no negotiations. It is Maliki, and not Sadr, who now appears militarily weak and unable to control elements of his own political coalition.

Sadr, in fact, finds himself in a perfect position: both in politics and out of it, part of the establishment and yet anti-establishment. Despite the fighting, he never pulled his allies out of the government or withdrew his support from Maliki in Parliament, which he could have done. Nor did he demand that all his followers leave Parliament and work outside the current political system. He has kept his hand in as a hedge.

Sadr has proven increasingly adept at politics. Last summer, he ordered his hand-picked ministers out of Maliki's cabinet after the Prime Minister refused to demand a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops. To the public, it looked like he was taking a principled stand against the occupation. But the boycott did nothing to dilute his influence in the government. All the ministries his party once headed are still staffed to the gills with his followers, who continue to create jobs for other loyalists and operate Sadr's growing political machine. Sadr is, in addition to being a military force, a source of political patronage.

He can now play the victim card, arguing that Maliki and the Americans had attacked him and his loyalists, even while allowing the militias of his Shi'ite rivals to prosper — as well as the U.S.-paid Sunni militias that are now being integrated into the Iraqi police and army. He can reasonably argue that he is the one true Iraqi patriot, the Iraqi leader the Americans fear most. How else to explain the attack on his Mahdi Army while he was observing a unilateral cease-fire? Furthermore, like Hizballah in Lebanon after the Israeli invasion in 2006, the Mahdi Army can claim a victory by simply surviving an assault by an Iraqi government backed by the Americans. That is significant street cred.

Strategically, Sadr called a cease-fire at the right time: practically synchronized to get the maximum political benefit while preserving his military capabilities. Again, it is a lesson he learned from recent experience. In 2004 Sadr's militia was severely damaged in fighting with American soldiers and Marines. In the process, however, Sadr became a symbol of Shi'ite resistance to the U.S. military occupation and parlayed that reputation into a seat at the political table. And so now, just when it appeared that he might be marginalized again, the Iraqi government has burnished Sadr's image as a leader who defies the United States and an Iraqi government that refuses to eject U.S. troops.

He clearly plans to preserve both his political and military personas. He was smart to declare a unilateral cease-fire last August. That allowed the Maliki government and the Americans to do the dirty work of clearing Sadr's militia of unsavory — and unpopular — criminal elements. But then the coalition began to round up more and more legitimate Sadr lieutenants, perhaps precipitating some of last week's confrontation in Baghdad. One of Sadr's principal demands when he met with the delegation of Shi'ite political leaders to discuss the new cease-fire was that more of his forces be released under the amnesty law. This was to appease his disgruntled followers whose brothers and uncles are the ones behind bars and who feel they have taken an unfair brunt of the surge while former Sunni insurgents are getting paychecks in the Concerned Local Citizens units. Like any good politician, he has to prove he can deliver the goods to his followers — even if he has to go to war for it. With reporting by Brian Bennett, Bobby Ghosh, Abigail Hauslohner and Mark Kukis

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2008, 05:07:50 PM »
How Moqtada al-Sadr Won in Basra
By Charles Crain/Baghdad



In the view of many American troops and officers, the Mahdi Army had splintered irretrievably into a collection of independent operators and criminal gangs. Now, however, the conclusion of the conflict in Basra shows that when Sadr speaks, the militia listens.

That apparent authority is in marked contrast to the weakness of Iraq's Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki. He traveled south to Basra with his security ministers to supervise the operation personally. After a few days of intense fighting he extended his previously announced deadline for surrender and offered militants cash in exchange for their weapons. Yet in the cease-fire announcement the militia explicitly reserved the right to hold onto its weapons. And the very fact of the cease-fire flies in the face of Maliki's proclamation that there would be no negotiations. It is Maliki, and not Sadr, who now appears militarily weak and unable to control elements of his own political coalition.



How many times can the American military underestimate these guys?

headhuntersix

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2008, 06:23:31 PM »
Unless u libs and the rest of the world are prepared for a media blackout and no access to Iraq for 90 days...this war will continue to drag on. The Iraqi army did ok. They lack certain things that take time to build...ie an NCO Corp. The US army did not underestimate these guys, we know how hard it is to fight this type of war. The Iraqi government blinked and it ended more or less where it began.
L

calmus

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2008, 06:33:36 PM »
The US army did not underestimate these guys, we know how hard it is to fight this type of war. The Iraqi government blinked and it ended more or less where it began.

The buck always stops somewhere else....

War-Horse

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2008, 10:37:07 PM »
Unless u libs and the rest of the world are prepared for a media blackout and no access to Iraq for 90 days...this war will continue to drag on. The Iraqi army did ok. They lack certain things that take time to build...ie an NCO Corp. The US army did not underestimate these guys, we know how hard it is to fight this type of war. The Iraqi government blinked and it ended more or less where it began.


Yeah, Just another 90 days.....work your magic gi joe... ::)

Sadr snaps his fingers and youd piss in your pants..

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2008, 01:05:44 AM »
Unless u libs and the rest of the world are prepared for a media blackout and no access to Iraq for 90 days...this war will continue to drag on. The Iraqi army did ok. They lack certain things that take time to build...ie an NCO Corp. The US army did not underestimate these guys, we know how hard it is to fight this type of war. The Iraqi government blinked and it ended more or less where it began.

America has given Sadr millions of dollars and now they expect that he's going to behave himself when they see it fit. They are learning the hard way that buying a victory isn't going to work.

Mars

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2008, 01:07:19 AM »
Peope yearn for these days of Saddam Hussain.

24KT

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2008, 01:39:41 AM »
Unless u libs and the rest of the world are prepared for a media blackout and no access to Iraq for 90 days...this war will continue to drag on. The Iraqi army did ok. They lack certain things that take time to build...ie an NCO Corp. The US army did not underestimate these guys, we know how hard it is to fight this type of war. The Iraqi government blinked and it ended more or less where it began.

Maybe the US army should have told Condoleeza Rice what was what.  :-\

http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=208018.0
w

shootfighter1

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2008, 08:29:08 AM »
Frustrating...

War-Horse

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2008, 08:39:04 AM »
Peope yearn for these days of Saddam Hussain.



Them were the days.  They had electricity, food, gas, the basics of life.  now they have nothing...even the green zones are getting bombed.

The US thought they could put the insurgents on the payroll and get everyone to think progress was being made.......hahahahahahah a,  That turned out well......

Mars

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2008, 08:47:07 AM »
i really think its the wrath of his excellency War Horse.

a_joker10

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2008, 09:05:09 AM »
Iraqi is safer then anytime in the last 20 years. Under Saddam over 1.7 million iraqi's were killed over 400,000 Iraqi's died in the Iran Iraq war, which he started.,We gassed over 100,000 of his own people. He killed 60,000 Shia's in the south, and over according to the UN over 1 million people died during the sanctions between the 1st and 2nd gulf war. They also didn't have lights or electricity in the Kurdish area's and the southern areas of Iraq were drained and the people were displaced.


The death toll of 150,00 iraqi's in 5 years is tragic, however it does not even remotely compare tothe level of death in Iraq before the invasion.

Further to the topic though there are two views of this conflict. Something that it went well. The other advantage of the Basra fight is that military and government was able tosee how would and wouldn't support them, and they promptly fire everyone that didn't fight or deserted there posts.This will make there military stronger.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080402/cm_rcp/getting_the_score_right_in_bas

 In the opening game of the baseball season between the Boston Red Sox and the Oakland Athletics in Japan, 11 runs were scored.

That lede would be unsatisfying to most sports fans, because it doesn't indicate which team won. But it is very like most of the reporting of battles in Iraq:

"The deadliest clashes were in Basra, where at least 47 people were killed and 223 wounded in the two days of fighting," wrote the AP's Kim Gamel in a dispatch March 26.

Ms. Gamel was writing about the opening clashes of Operation Knight's Charge, the effort by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki to take control of Iraq's second most populous city from Iranian-backed militias, chiefly the Mahdi Army nominally headed by the Moqtada al Sadr.

Fighting subsided after Mr. al Sadr called for a cease fire Sunday.

The cease fire "is seen as a serious blow" to Mr. Maliki, because "he had vowed that he would see the Basra campaign through to a military victory," wrote Erica Goode and James Glanz of the New York Times Monday. But Nibras Kazimi, an Iraqi who is a visiting scholar at the Hudson Institute, says his sources in Iraq tell him "the Mahdi army is losing very badly."

So who's right? It is rare in the annals of war for the side which is winning to seek a cease fire. And though Mr. al Sadr has said he wants one, Mr. Maliki hasn't said he'll grant one. "Security operations in Basra will continue," he said Monday.

"The Iraq army has cordoned off the city and is methodically advancing to allow residents to leave the city amidst the fighting, militants to turn over arms, while gradually isolating the factions they intend to uproot," a Marine liaison officer to the Iraqi security forces said in an email Tuesday to radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt.

Why might Mr. al Sadr have sought a cease fire? "Sources in Basra tell TIME that there has been a large scale retreat in the oil-rich port city because of low morale and because ammunition is low due to the closure of the Iranian border," TIME reported Sunday.

"They were running short of ammunition, food and water," a U.S. military officer told Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal. "In short, (the Mahdi army) had no ability to sustain the effort."

That sure doesn't sound like al Sadr's forces were winning. It is easier to maintain the illusion that they were when friendly, enemy and noncombatant casualties are lumped together.

His sources in the U.S. military tell him the Mahdi army was getting pounded, Bill Roggio said. "According to an unofficial tally... 571 Mahdi army fighters have been killed, 881 have been wounded, 490 have been captured, and 30 have surrendered over the course of seven days of fighting."

"The U.S. and Iraqi military never came close to inflicting casualties at such a high rate during the height of major combat operations against al Qaida in Iraq during the summer and fall of 2007," he said.

The Mahdi army has won by surviving, media analysts say. But it seems apparent the Mahdi army survived by quitting.

Mr. al Sadr offered the cease fire after travelled to Iran to meet with the head of the Qods (Jerusalem) force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the McClatchy Newspapers reported. The lawmakers urged Brigadier Gen. Qassem Suliemani to lean on Mr. al Sadr (who is in Iran) to offer the cease fire.

If true (Mr. Kazimi's government source in Baghdad described it as a "naive fabrication"), the McClatchy story indicates the Mahdi army is under Iranian control.

Why would Iran want the fighting to stop?

"The Iranians have realized that they no longer can use the Shiite militia threat to force Washington's hand on Iraq without jeopardizing their own interests," speculated STRATFOR, a private intelligence service.

Fighting among Shia factions, and the increasing independence of Shia factions they thought they controlled has virtually dashed hopes Iran would be able to dominate Iraq through Shia proxies, STRATFOR said.

"The mullahs know that they are losing," said Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute. "Their great dream of driving America out of Iraq, which seemed to be about to be fulfilled just a year and a half ago, has now turned into the nightmare of humiliation and defeat for the Islamic republic. The Maliki government is attacking the remnants of the Mahdi army in Basra, that same government the mullahs thought they had under control."
Z

War-Horse

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2008, 09:15:27 AM »
Okay then, shall we do another "Mission accomplished"  In 90 days.   :D



BTW   Putting the enemy on the payroll to quiet them down is not a retreat.  Hence the new violence in Iraq greenzones and basra.

Please get educated befre believing everything you read.   Look at actions...not words.

240 is Back

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2008, 09:18:37 AM »
Iraqi is safer then anytime in the last 20 years. Under Saddam over 1.7 million iraqi's were killed over 400,000 Iraqi's died in the Iran Iraq war, which he started.,We gassed over 100,000 of his own people. He killed 60,000 Shia's in the south, and over according to the UN over 1 million people died during the sanctions between the 1st and 2nd gulf war. They also didn't have lights or electricity in the Kurdish area's and the southern areas of Iraq were drained and the people were displaced.


The death toll of 150,00 iraqi's in 5 years is tragic, however it does not even remotely compare tothe level of death in Iraq before the invasion.


joker, welcome back.  It's been many months, so I'm guessing you're a gimmic of someone here.  If not, your timing is very good to chime in with the exact argument you used when you left.  The political board is very active now.  Many of us have seen our positions evolve as events have unfolded in the world.  Hope ya stick around a bit!

a_joker10

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2008, 09:40:43 AM »
I have been avoiding this place for many months because it is far too liberal.
I supported this war from the start and only waivered just before the surge.

The fact is that even if America left Iraq. There will be over 50,000 troops stationed in Kuwait and the 5th fleet will remain in Dubai. The liberals don't get this. That is why what McCain said was truth. There will be military presence in the gulf states for another 100 years, it might not be in Iraq though. Think of Japan or Korea each is over 50 years now and the Americans are not leaving.

Everyone wanted Iraq to try to stand upon its own. It just did, now the media and many members of government think that iraq shouldn't operate on their own.

Baby steps.

Many will view this as a failure, however , Iraq gained many things in this, a more loyal military as anyone who didn't agree with the action in Basra was tossed. The military commanders had a real opportunity to try to coordinate there actions, also something they didn't do before.

But the real gain was that the people in Iraq finally had a military that would oppose the factions in iraq. This is the seed of a new country. One that will actually defend itself. There will be more losses, however Iraq is becoming wealthy now, with an extra 55 billion dollars this year, and the new Basra oil contracts will only help this. Money inn the end will enable Iraq to stand up on its own, because the other proxies will be able to be outspent.
Z

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2008, 10:06:28 AM »
joker, I think the libs DO get this.

Both Hilary and Obama have said that while they'll remove combat forces, they will not promise anything about troops being completely gone by 2013 even.

Everyone agrees there will be a presence forever in a small capacity - I don't think anyone here believes the dem candidate will pull them completely.  besides, both parties are getting closer and closer to identical positions on the war - let the generals run it.

War-Horse

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2008, 10:16:07 AM »
joker, I think the libs DO get this.

Both Hilary and Obama have said that while they'll remove combat forces, they will not promise anything about troops being completely gone by 2013 even.

Everyone agrees there will be a presence forever in a small capacity - I don't think anyone here believes the dem candidate will pull them completely.  besides, both parties are getting closer and closer to identical positions on the war - let the generals run it.


True.   Most here are center fro the most part...maybe a little left cuz they have compassion......

a_joker10

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2008, 12:38:22 PM »
Obviously they don't get it.

The democratic assumption is that when American troops leave is that Iraq will allow them back in to fight Al Qaeda. This is foolish because Iraq will be a sovereign country one that will be more closely tied to other countries in the region. I guess reinvading is not out of the question, but one would have to answer, why? This would an even bigger mess then it is now. At least now in many areas there is some semblance of normality, this is especially true in the Kurdish areas, these gains would be wiped out by the US leaving before Iraq is completely ready. Besides Iraq will have elections around September and quite a bit can change.

The Democratic hopefuls opinions on iraq from their websites is listed bellow.

Hillary's opinion from her website.
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/iraq/

Starting Phased Redeployment within Hillary's First Days in Office: The most important part of Hillary's plan is the first: to end our military engagement in Iraq's civil war and immediately start bringing our troops home. As president, one of Hillary's first official actions would be to convene the Joint Chiefs of Staff, her Secretary of Defense, and her National Security Council. She would direct them to draw up a clear, viable plan to bring our troops home starting with the first 60 days of her Administration. She would also direct the Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs to prepare a comprehensive plan to provide the highest quality health care and benefits to every service member -- including every member of the National Guard and Reserves -- and their families.


Obama's opinion from his website.
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/iraq/#bring-home

Bringing Our Troops Home

Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.

Z

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2008, 12:40:49 PM »
even Bush said there will be no permanent bases in Iraq, joker.

Do you believe this?

a_joker10

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2008, 12:47:33 PM »
240,
No, especially since by the end of the year America will have signed a long term security agreement with Iraq.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gvsKHCj_jjvCkYgE9lKl3x9xkEvAD8VG2JT83

It is easier to secure something from inside then from outside.
Z

240 is Back

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2008, 01:09:38 PM »
240,
No, especially since by the end of the year America will have signed a long term security agreement with Iraq.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gvsKHCj_jjvCkYgE9lKl3x9xkEvAD8VG2JT83

It is easier to secure something from inside then from outside.


Hmm..

bush's EXACT QUOTE was somehting like "We are not building permanent bases in iraq".

It was on msnbc 2 days ago I believe.

a_joker10

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2008, 03:08:07 PM »
So the Iraq bases are temporary.Temporary for 100 years I guess.

Just like Korea which has had temporary bases for over 50 years and Japan 60 years.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2004290747_floyd19.html
In just this manner, we have — since 1945 — 40,000 temporary troops in Japan and another 24,000 in South Korea. All in temporary facilities, of course. We have roughly as many troops in Japan, Germany, South Korea, Italy and Britain as we have in Iraq.
Z

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2008, 03:45:10 PM »
See, I support the war because I'm actually very happy with us having bases in the region.  And I'm happy they are dividing up the fields and selling it in $ dollars.  Will keep dollar relevant and a place to hang our hat over there if the saudis ask us to leave.

I also thought all along that permanent bases were the plan.  I was a little confused when Bush said no permament bases the other day.  McCain was honest about it - why did Bush tell an obvious lie then, when many will support it?  Was it one of those things like WMD that appeases the left, and the right just kinda goes along even though they see the lie?

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2008, 03:57:33 PM »


I also thought all along that permanent bases were the plan.  I was a little confused when Bush said no permament bases the other day.  McCain was honest about it - why did Bush tell an obvious lie then, when many will support it? 

Why? Cause they are all crooks and lying for them is as easy as breathing.

headhuntersix

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Re: Al-Sadr wins again
« Reply #24 on: April 02, 2008, 04:24:57 PM »
All from guys who have never been there ::).....good job Joker..good info.
L