Neocons arent Republicans.
repub party split in 2001.
nation was 50/50, remember?
bush now has 25% approval rating, from the neoconservative people.
1/2 of repubs are now constitutionalist, isolationist, anti-war repubs.
1/2 of repubs are now neoconservatives and support war for oil, period.
The was was 51/49 in 2004.
To believe it'll be that close again, you have to believe that EVERY ONE of those 51% republicans (both neocons and constitutionalist) will stick with Mccain.
What do you think? If he loses just 2% of the vote, or 8% of the constitutionalists, then Obama wins.