I don't follow all of that - obviously you know miles more of the numbers and real life situation than I do.
My point is that over a year ago, all the crazy CT sites made a big deal about it, saying it was proof that the war would be dragged out, then ended fast at the end of his term. Heck, it would make mccain look good - "I've been behind the war the whole time, and we won! Bush said so!"
If it ends in October, you'll have to at least consider the possibility it was timed for political purposes, not military, right hh6?