Author Topic: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked  (Read 1741 times)

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Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« on: June 28, 2008, 11:27:14 AM »

TEHRAN (Reuters) - The Revolutionary Guards said Iran would impose controls on shipping in the vital Gulf oil route if Iran was attacked and warned regional states of reprisals if they took part, a newspaper reported on Saturday.

Fear of an escalation in the standoff between the West and Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, have been one factor propping up sky-high oil prices. Crude hit a record level on international markets near $143 a barrel on Friday.

Speculation about a possible attack on Iran because of its disputed nuclear ambitions has risen since a report this month said Israel had practiced such a strike, prompting increasingly tough talk of retaliation, if pushed, from Tehran.

"Naturally every country under attack by an enemy uses all its capacity and opportunities to confront the enemy," Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari told Jam-e Jam newspaper in some of the toughest language Iran has used so far.

Analysts say Iran may not match the firepower of U.S. forces but could still cause havoc in the region using unconventional tactics, such as deploying small craft to attack ships, or using allies in the area to strike at U.S. or Israeli interests.

"Regarding the main route for exiting energy, Iran will definitely act to impose control on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," Jafari said of the Gulf waterway through which about two-fifths of all globally traded oil passes.

Iranian officials have in the past sent mixed signals about whether Iran would use oil as a weapon. But such threats, when made, have sent jitters through the crude market for fear of disrupting supplies from big OPEC producers in the Gulf.


The Islamic Republic insists its nuclear program is peaceful and aimed at generating electricity. But the West and Israel fear Iran is seeking to build atomic bombs. Israel is believed to be the only Middle East state with nuclear arms.

Washington has said it wants diplomacy to end the nuclear row but has not ruled out military action should that fail.

'RIGHT TO RESPOND'

"If there is a confrontation between us and the enemy from outside the region, definitely the scope (of the confrontation) will reach the oil issue," Jafari said.

The Revolutionary Guards are the ideologically driven wing of Iran's military with air, sea and land capabilities, and a separate command structure to regular units.

"After this action (of Iran imposing controls on the Gulf waterway), the oil price will rise very considerably and this is among the factors deterring the enemies," Jafari said.

He said any military action might "be able to delay Iran's nuclear activities but this delay will certainly be very short".

Jafari warned neighbors not to let their territory be used.

"If the attack takes place from the soil of another country ... the country attacked has the right to respond to the enemy's military action from where the operation started," he said.

Kuwait, the launchpad for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and Iraq itself, where U.S. troops are now stationed, have both said they would not let their land be used for a strike on Iran. The U.S. military has bases in other Gulf states and Afghanistan.

Jafari said U.S. forces were "more vulnerable than Israelis" because of their troops in the area. Iran's top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has in the past said Iran would target U.S. interests if attacked.

"Iran can in different ways harm American interests even far away," the Guards commander said.

Jafari suggested Iran's allies in the region, who include Lebanon's Shi'ite militia Hezbollah, could also retaliate. He referred to Iran's ties with those living in Lebanon's Shi'ite heartland of south Lebanon but did not refer to any group.

"Israelis know if they take military action against Iran ... the abilities of the Islamic and Shi'ite world, especially in the region, will deliver fatal blows," Jafari said, adding that Israel was in range of Iranian missiles.

He also hinted that Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that receives Iranian funding and which has sent suicide bombers into Israel, might act. But, again, he did not name the group.


Camel Jockey

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2008, 11:28:07 AM »
Israel is to blame for higher oil prices

Deicide

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2008, 11:29:35 AM »
This is awesome. I can't wait till Faux News: Showdown-Iran....
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youandme

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2008, 11:47:46 AM »
This is awesome. I can't wait till Faux News: Showdown-Iran....


Yeah  ::)

So when do you plan on moving out of the US? What about if McBush gets elected, will you denounce your citizenship?

Fury

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2008, 01:16:47 PM »

Yeah  ::)

So when do you plan on moving out of the US? What about if McBush gets elected, will you denounce your citizenship?

He lives in Korea and left the US years ago because he couldn't make it here. Apparently no one in the US is capable of saving $20k a year as a single "academic".  ::)

Let's be honest here. If we go to war with Iran and they try to "exact control" on the waterways, what are they really going to be able to do? Bring in our Navy and they won't be doing much. More talk. Seems 240 is dumb enough to actually believe Iran's puffery?


Deicide

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2008, 07:55:11 PM »
He lives in Korea and left the US years ago because he couldn't make it here. Apparently no one in the US is capable of saving $20k a year as a single "academic".  ::)

Let's be honest here. If we go to war with Iran and they try to "exact control" on the waterways, what are they really going to be able to do? Bring in our Navy and they won't be doing much. More talk. Seems 240 is dumb enough to actually believe Iran's puffery?



What white trash town do you live in? Obviously not NYC.

You still haven't answered my question: why did we invade Iraq? Come on, back up your arrogant nationalism!
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headhuntersix

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2008, 07:55:06 AM »
They can mine the straights and cut the straights for maybe a week or so....then they won't have anything left to even fish with...oil prices will spike no doubt.
L

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2008, 08:06:43 AM »
They can mine the straights and cut the straights for maybe a week or so....then they won't have anything left to even fish with...oil prices will spike no doubt.

you think the effects would be minimal?

or would it give speculators the ammo they need to jusity pushing prices over $170 or even 200?

That's my biggest concern.  I don't care if we hit iranian targets - they tried to disrupt the dollar and encouraged OPEC to drop the buck - that's grounds for war IMO anyway.  however, the effects upon gas and oil is what worries me.  I am sure we/israel can hit them fast and hard and avoid the ground mess if we wish.  My concern is how it'll affect us here.

how fast could we get the gulf cleaned up?   how much of a mess could they really make?

Deicide

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2008, 08:55:51 AM »
you think the effects would be minimal?

or would it give speculators the ammo they need to jusity pushing prices over $170 or even 200?

That's my biggest concern.  I don't care if we hit iranian targets - they tried to disrupt the dollar and encouraged OPEC to drop the buck - that's grounds for war IMO anyway.  however, the effects upon gas and oil is what worries me.  I am sure we/israel can hit them fast and hard and avoid the ground mess if we wish.  My concern is how it'll affect us here.

how fast could we get the gulf cleaned up?   how much of a mess could they really make?

We are not going to attack Iran. It would be madness.
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youandme

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2008, 08:56:45 AM »
Your right were not until Israel does.  :-*

Deicide

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2008, 09:05:30 AM »
Your right were not until Israel does.  :-*

Screw Israel...
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MuscleMcMannus

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2008, 09:27:13 AM »
I think if Bush unilaterally attacked Iran it would be suicide.  People (as lazy and pacified as most Americans are) would actually take to the streets and riot.  However, the scenario could play out in a several different ways.  One of which Israel attacks Iran and we come to their defense once Iran retaliates.  Secondly, there is some sort of false flag event blamed on Iran in which American lives are lost.  Maybe something in Iraq or maybe something here at home.  A mini 9/11.  Who knows.  I don't think most Americans realize just how serious things are for our economy.  The mainstream media downplays it every chance they get.  The petrodollar is over.  If the dollar keeps falling it will spell disaster for our economy.  Compound that with the rising price in oil and it's a double edged sword.  Don't put it pass the powerful/wealthy elites in Washington to do something before the new President takes office.  American arrogance today is astonishing.  War with Iran would not be a cake walk.  They are not Iraq.  Sure we could easily defeat them with nuclear weapons.  But short of that they have missiles and sophisticated technology thanks to the Russians that could do damage to our troops and our ships.  While not one Iraqi Air Force plane left the ground to challenge our air force in Iraq that is not the case with Iran.  Yes they have old F-4 Phantoms and F-14 Tomcats.  But those planes still have enough sophistication to kill people.  The U.S. government doesn't know what the fuck to do right now, especially when it comes to the economy.  The inflation you see right now is planned.  It's nothing more than a tax to pay for the war.  It won't be going away anytime soon.  Young guys are dying over there for nothing.  The fight in Afghanistan is becoming a joke.  The Taliban are back to prewar levels just like the poppy levels.  All this money and all of our soldiers dead and nothing has really changed except the fact that a few wealthy elites have gotten very fucking wealthy from this war.  I mean seriously guys think about it for a second, we are the wealthiest fucking country in the world.........yet our troops went without proper armor/equipment in the beginning, they have shitty medical care when they get back, committing suicide in record numbers.  The government that sends troops over there to dies could give a shit about them.  The unfortunate thing is there is the same anti-war sentiment growing now that was growing during the Vietnam war.  It would be sad to treat these troops, who are nothing more than corporate pawns, like we did the soldiers in Vietnam who were again nothing more than political pawns.   God bless the guys over there and hopefully most of them can make sense of what they are doing over there.  Because the War on Terror is a hoax.     

headhuntersix

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2008, 09:34:54 AM »
Don't think fora minute that Iranian conventional forces pose any kind of serious threat to the US. 1970' s vintage f-14's and Phantoms don't stand much of a chance against our latest gear as well as pilots who have been flying combat missions for year. They have subs and would pose a threat should they get out of their pens. The Gulf is shallow and not the best for subs, but they could do some damage. We won't be invading on the ground. They could and will mine areas of the Gulf as well. The New Yorker has a new piece out that I would invite all to read. It does not paint the Admin in a super light but its a pretty good story on what we're doing.
L

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headhuntersix

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2008, 09:53:04 AM »
Great....glad u posted the link. He has some fairly good access to the info...but i don't think we're going in. I think with all the things we're doing in Iran, that send enough ofa message. I also find it very curious that he does not mention or explore the meddling that Iran is doing. He says the evidence is dubious and some other phrases...sorry bud but I've seen video's, gotten briefs etc all by Centom guys...the same guys who talked to him. They are meddling...they've set up shop down South and aren't leaving.
L

MuscleMcMannus

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2008, 12:14:55 PM »
Don't think fora minute that Iranian conventional forces pose any kind of serious threat to the US. 1970' s vintage f-14's and Phantoms don't stand much of a chance against our latest gear as well as pilots who have been flying combat missions for year. They have subs and would pose a threat should they get out of their pens. The Gulf is shallow and not the best for subs, but they could do some damage. We won't be invading on the ground. They could and will mine areas of the Gulf as well. The New Yorker has a new piece out that I would invite all to read. It does not paint the Admin in a super light but its a pretty good story on what we're doing.

Well it depends on what your definition of serious threat is.  Iraq didn't pose a serious threat either and we've lost over 4000 soldiers.  Iran is much better equipped to deal with an outside force than Iraq was.  Our arrogance will be our downfall like it was for Russia and many other superpowers throughout history.  But you probably get all your news and political ideology from Fox News and Michael Savage. 

MuscleMcMannus

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2008, 12:18:20 PM »
Great....glad u posted the link. He has some fairly good access to the info...but i don't think we're going in. I think with all the things we're doing in Iran, that send enough ofa message. I also find it very curious that he does not mention or explore the meddling that Iran is doing. He says the evidence is dubious and some other phrases...sorry bud but I've seen video's, gotten briefs etc all by Centom guys...the same guys who talked to him. They are meddling...they've set up shop down South and aren't leaving.

What message have we sent?  Iran defies our "message" every chance they get.  Sanctions have not worked.  Military exercises haven't done anything.  We won't do anything possibly but Israel certainly will if need be.  The world hates them anyways why would they care about their reputation. 

headhuntersix

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2008, 02:32:51 PM »
Well it depends on what your definition of serious threat is.  Iraq didn't pose a serious threat either and we've lost over 4000 soldiers.  Iran is much better equipped to deal with an outside force than Iraq was.  Our arrogance will be our downfall like it was for Russia and many other superpowers throughout history.  But you probably get all your news and political ideology from Fox News and Michael Savage. 

I get all my news right from Iraq and Afghanistan actually. Iraq fought a conventional war against us and they lasted 100 hours the first time and about 8 weeks the second. I was there, we shit beat them. Nobody is saying we're going to invade Iran. Don't compare us to the Russians. We pacified Afghanistan with SOF A-Teams. Completely cutting apart Irans nuclear capabilty and then destroying their conventional forces, is completely different then patrolling Teheran.
L

Neurotoxin

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2008, 03:09:55 PM »


or would it give speculators the ammo they need to jusity pushing prices over $170 or even 200?That's my biggest concern. 




$200.00 + per barrel if war with iran breaks out.

this would decimate the US economy IMO.


NT

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Re: Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked
« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2008, 03:29:37 PM »
We were just 8 dollars away from $150 a barrel a couple of days ago. It seems like we were freaking out about $100 a barrel just yesterday.