He should have an easier time attracting moderates than Obama.
Moderates Could Find It Difficult to Ride McCain’s Coattailsby Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
Thursday, July 3, 2008
John McCain, shown here speaking at the National Sheriffs' Association conference in Indianapolis, Tuesday, could make it hard for moderates to win in Congress.
WASHINGTON — For John McCain, a victory in November could come at a steep price.
Throughout his campaign, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee has been shifting to the right in an effort to woo the GOP’s wobbly conservative base. But that shift could make it harder for Republicans to win or hang on to House and Senate seats in key swing districts this fall.
McCain longtime image of a moderate “maverick” who championed campaign finance reform, the environment and pork-barrel busting could be a big help in tight congressional races where independent and swing voters could make or break the election.
But if he continues to shift right to appeal to those base voters who are skeptical of him, he may not be welcome in those districts where he has the strongest role to play.
“He is right now being groomed by many in the Republican Party to create his conservative bona fides, and in doing so he may be pushing away some of the moderate vote that made him so attractive in the primary and caucus races,” said Matt Towery, who has worked in Republican campaigns and now runs the Insider Advantage polling company in Georgia.
“If that’s beginning to develop,” Towery warned, “the coattails may be far and few between.”
McCain’s touch-and-go relationship with the GOP’s conservative base is no secret. In a FOXNews/Opinion Dynamics poll in June, only 54 percent of Republicans surveyed said they were satisfied with their choice for president this year, compared to 78 percent of Democrats who said they were satisfied with Barack Obama.
McCain’s recent turnaround on the issue of offshore oil drilling and his support for an amendment to California’s constitution barring same-sex marriages may appeal to conservative voters, but those positions risk turning off moderate voters in swing districts.
And while McCain needs conservatives to turn out and vote for him on Election Day, the Republicans most needing his help this year are moderates from mixed districts who rely on crossover votes and independents to win.
For instance, political analysts say McCain could potentially help former Pennsylvania Rep. Melissa Hart, a Republican who was upset by Democrat Jason Altmire in 2006 in her Democratic-trending suburban Pittsburgh district.
The problem for McCain, said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic consultant in Pennsylvania, is he “really hasn’t done anything to show these moderate and independents that he is one of them.”
However, Ceisler noted, “McCain is certainly an improvement over Bush and (former Sen. Rick) Santorum, so I think he will create a somewhat better environment” for swing voters than in the 2006 midterm, when Republicans lost four seats in Pennsylvania.
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http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/03/mcmoderates-coattails/
