Trouble for McCain.
Poll shows economic worries similar to 1992Posted: 01:45 PM ET
From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney
(CNN) – It's the economy, stupid — again.
A new survey from CNN and the Opinion Research Corporation suggests Americans are nearly as pessimistic now about the state of the economy as they were in 1992 — the year Bill Clinton defeated then-President George H. W. Bush by running a campaign focused largely on America's economic woes. (More from CNNMoney.com)
According to the new poll, three-quarters of all Americans think the country is going through a recession, and a majority thinks it will last at least a year. Close to a quarter of Americans expect it to last more than two years.
Read full poll results [PDF]
The technical definition of a recession is two or more quarters of negative economic growth. This has yet to happen, though many notable economists, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, have said an actual recession is likely. Other economists say factors including skyrocketing gas and energy prices, six consecutive months of job losses, and the rise of home foreclosures have led to the worst economic conditions during a presidential election since perhaps 1980.
Americans' views toward the economy are similar to those 16 years ago, when the country experienced an official recession and voters largely blamed former President Bush at the ballot box. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll taken two months before the 1992 election, just under 80 percent of Americans said the country was a in a recession.
In both the 1980 and 1992 elections, poor economic conditions led voters to overwhelmingly reject the incumbent party, a trend that appears to disadvantage the Republican presidential presumptive nominee.
“Whenever a solid majority of voters says the country is in a recession, it is bad news for the party holding the White House,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Voters are in a sour mood and, if history is any guide, they are going to take out their anger on the Republicans. These numbers are a huge danger sign for John McCain.”
Watch: Obama, McCain talk economy
Recognizing the economy has firmly become the No. 1 issue on voters' minds — well ahead of the war in Iraq in recent opinion surveys — both candidates have increasingly stressed their plans to solve the country's financial woes. Both John McCain and Barack Obama are kicking off a week during which they will focus almost exclusively on the issue.
McCain will point to 300 economists backing his proposal, which calls for further tax cuts, increased trade, and his a presidential veto of excessive spending bills. He also plans to call for a balanced budget by the end of his first term.
“We must also get government's fiscal house in order," he will say, according to prepared remarks. "American workers and families pay their bills and balance their budgets, and I will demand the same of the government. A government that spends wisely and balances its budget is a catalyst for economic growth and the creation of good and secure jobs.”
Obama travels to North Carolina Monday to kick off a series of intimate campaign events that will focus on voter's economic worries as the Illinois senator courts working class voters, many of whom voted for Hillary Clinton in the party's presidential primary.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/07/poll-shows-economic-worries-could-dominate-campaign/#more-8441
