Interesting Obama VP Analysis

[Benny B]

Pros and Cons: Tim Kaine as Barack Obama’s Running Mate

Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia has shot to the top of the speculated Obama VP shortlist, so in this edition of Pros and Cons, we’ll take a look at Kaine’s resume, and what he could bring to a potential ticket with Obama.

Resume: Tim Kaine was born in Minnesota, but he grew up outside of Kansas City, MO. He graduated from the University of Missouri with a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics in 1979. He attended Harvard Law School, but took a year off to go to Honduras to work with the Jesuit order as Roman Catholic missionary. He graduated from Harvard law in 1983, was admitted to the Virginia bar, and practiced law in the state for 17 years.

In 1994, he was elected to the city council in Richmond, VA. The city council elected him mayor in 1998. As mayor, Kaine was most known for helping to create and implement the gun law called Project Exile. Kaine was elected Lt. Governor of Virginia in November 2001, by a margin of 50%-48%. Since Virginia limits it’s governors to one consecutive term, Mark Warner could not run for a second term, so Kaine ran and closely associated himself with the wildly popular Warner. He won the 2005 election 52%-46%.

As Governor Kaine has had to deal with budget deficits, and also opposed a state constitutional amendment that would have defined marriage as only between a man and a woman. He signed an executive order banning smoking in all government buildings and cars. In 2006, Kaine announced a plan to conserve 400,000 acres of Virginia land from real estate development.

He opposes capital punishment, and says that he has a faith based opposition to abortion. Kaine is a member of Democrats for life. The most recent approval rating for Kaine is 56%. He is popular with moderates, and those who attend religious services. He was also one of Barack Obama’s earliest supporters, and the first governor to endorse Obama.

Pros to Obama Picking Kaine: The biggest pro to Obama picking Kaine is that he is the Governor of Virginia, which is a red state that is already trending Democratic that the Obama campaign seems hell bent to flip. Kaine is a fluent Spanish speaker who would help the ticket connect with Hispanic voters. As a Roman-Catholic, he would help Obama with a voting bloc that he has struggled mightily with.

As a pro-life Democrat, he might help with anti-abortion voters who aren’t that enthused about McCain. Kaine was elected governor on the strength of his performance in several conservative areas of the state, so the Obama campaign might hope that by choosing Kaine they can appeal to those conservative white Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton, and have been very slow to get behind Obama.

Cons to Obama Picking Kaine: Kaine has a thin resume, and very limited political experience. He has only been a governor of two plus years, and his time as governor has been fairly non descript. He does not have foreign policy or military experience. In fact, he seems to lack expertise in any one policy area. Kaine isn’t even the biggest Democratic star in his state that would be Mark Warner.

Kaine is a relative unknown outside of his state, and his appeal might be limited to Virginia. A pro-life Democratic running mate would not play well with most Obama supporters, and also many in the Democratic Party. Many of Kaine’s positions are moderate, or more conservative than Obama’s. There could be a problem meshing the moderate Kaine and the liberal Obama on the same ticket.

Odds of Obama Picking Kaine: The odds are very good that Obama will pick Kaine, who seems to be on the short short list. I have to confess that I don’t understand the Obama campaign’s fascination with Kaine. My best guess is that after Mark Warner and Jim Webb both turned them down, they see Kaine as their last best chance at winning Virginia.

The Choice-O-Meter Says:

OOOOOOOO (8 O’s for Tim Kaine)

1 O = No Chance – 10 Os = A Sure Thing

[Benny B]

Pros and Cons: Evan Bayh as Obama’s Running Mate
It seems like in every election since 2000 Evan Bayh’s name has been floated as a potential running mate for the Democratic nominee. In the last few days, his name has surfaced again, so in this edition of Pros and Cons, we will take a look at Sen. Bayh (D-IN) as a potential running mate for Obama.

Resume: The Bayh family name has been a fixture in Indiana politics for 45 years. Evan’s father is Birch Bayh who held one of the state’s two Senate seats from 1963-1981. Evan Bayh went to Indiana University, and received his J.D. from the University of Virginia in 1981. After going into private practice, Bayh ran for, and was elected Indiana Secretary of State in 1986. He was elected governor of the state in 1988, and he won his reelection campaign by 28 points in 1992.

As governor Bayh was a Clinton Democrat. He stressed balanced budgets, low taxes, job creation and small government. Bayh was a proponent of the welfare to work program. He amassed the single largest surplus, and gave the biggest tax cut in state history. After two terms as governor he was elected to the Senate in 1998 with 64% of the vote, and won reelection in 2004 with 62% of the vote. Among his committee assignments are the Armed Services Committee, Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, and Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

Pros to Obama Picking Bayh: Bayh has both the executive experience and Senate experience that Obama lacks. He was an early and vocal supporter of Hillary Clinton, and this might help appease any Clinton holdouts who have not joined the Obama camp. He is a centerist, who would help off set the tax and spend liberal charge the GOP is trying to label Obama with. Byah would certainly tip Indiana to Obama, and if the election is close, this might be enough to put him over the top.

Cons to Obama Picking Bayh: Bayh is a centerist in the Clinton mode. He voted for the Iraq war, and for renewing the Patriot Act. Thus far, no former supporter of Hillary Clinton seems to be getting much VP consideration from the Obama camp, which does not bode well for Bayh. He also lacks foreign policy experience and has kept a low profile in the Senate. Bayh would bring Indiana with him, but might not do much else for the ticket. Bayh is about as exciting as watching the grass grow. He is a John Kerry/Al Gore kind of Democrat.
Pros and Cons: Evan Bayh as Obama’s Running Mate
Odds of Obama Picking Bayh: Bayh’s biggest selling point is his popularity in Indiana, but Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has repeatedly said that whether or not a running mate can help in a state will not be a primary consideration in the selection process. The Obama camp seems to be looking for an experienced national name to lend some weight to the ticket. [insert:Could this mean Bill Richardson? - BB]I believe that they want to use the choice to assure voters who might be on the fence about Obama. Evan Bayh would be a safe choice, just not a very interesting or exciting one.

The Choice-O-Meter says:

(OOO 3 Os for Sen. Evan Bayh)

1 O = No Chance – 10 Os = A Sure Thing

[Benny B]

Pros and Cons: Joe Biden as Barack Obama’s Running Mate

In the third part of our continuing series profiling the potential running mates for Barack Obama, I take a look at Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE). Biden is a popular Democratic senator, but would he be the perfect running mate for Obama?

Resume: Joe Biden is the sixth longest serving member of the United States Senate. Currently, Biden is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and he also was a candidate for the 2008 Democratic nomination, but Biden dropped out of the race after a poor performance in the Iowa caucuses. Biden also serves on several other committees in the Senate including the Judiciary Committee. He has crafted several crime bills while on this committee including the famous Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 a.k.a. the Biden Crime Law.

On the foreign relations front, Biden has used his position on the Foreign Relations Committee to try and reduce the violence in the Balkans in the 1990s. Biden has advocated splitting Iraq into three parts based on sectarian lines. Biden is also a strong advocate for U.S. action to help stop the violence, and genocide in Darfur.

Pros to Picking Biden: Biden is a veteran of the U.S. Senate, and a man who is respected by Democrats everywhere. He understands both the legislative process, and foreign policy. His presence on the ticket could help with conservative Democrats who are concerned about Obama’s experience and foreign policy positions.

Cons for Picking Biden: The biggest con of all might be that Biden isn’t interested in the job. He seems like a Senate lifer who is happy with his work in the legislative branch. From an electoral point of view, it would be difficult to find anyone who is more of a Washington insider than a man who has been there since 1973. Plus Biden has no executive experience, so the idea of two Senators with no executive experience on the same ticket, could be a problem. Obama will carry Delaware in the fall, and it is doubtful that Biden could help in many swing states. Also, Biden has run for president on four previous occasions and never gathered much traction in any of his campaigns.

Odds of Obama Selecting Biden: I know that Biden has his supporters, but it really seems that he is not interested in the job, and even if he was, picking a Washington insider isn’t the best move for a campaign that is running on a fresh face and change. Biden has Cabinet Secretary written all over him. He openly has said that he doesn’t want to be VP, but he tends to dance around the idea of him being Secretary of State. If he or Richardson isn’t selected for VP, then they should be the top two choices for State.

The Choice O Meter Says: (1 O = No Chance - 10 Os = A Sure Thing)
OO (2 Os out of 10 for Joe Biden)

UPDATE: Biden does seem to want the job, and that changes everything. His new Choice-O-Meter Ranking (OOOOOOOO) 8 out of 10 O's for Joe Biden

[Benny B]

Pros and Cons: Bill Richardson as Obama’s Running Mate

As Barack Obama and John McCain formerly begin their searches for running mates, over the next few weeks we will be profiling the potential candidates for the VP slots. First up is current New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.

Resume: Bill Richardson is the current governor of New Mexico. He also was a candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2008. Richardson has had a wide and varied career in public service. Richardson spent 14 years in the House of Representatives where he focused mostly on foreign policy issues. From 1997-1998 he served as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. In 1998, President Clinton appointed him Secretary of Energy. He stayed in this position for the remainder of the Clinton administration. Richardson was elected governor of New Mexico in 2002 by a 17 point margin, 56%-39%. He won reelection in 2006 by an even bigger margin 68%-32%.

Richardson’s use of diplomacy has earned him five Nobel Peace Prize
nominations. Richardson has negotiated the release of hostages in North Korea, Iraq, Cuba, Sudan. He has made six diplomatic missions to North Korea. He was a key negotiator of the original deal with N. Korea on their nuclear program. His most recent diplomatic effort was the negotiation with N. Korea for the remains of six U.S. Korean War casualties.

Pros for picking Richardson : Foreign policy is a weakness on Obama’s resume that John McCain has already been looking to exploit. The addition of Richardson would shore up the ticket against some of those foreign policy questions. If Obama truly wants to bring change, Richardson’s focus on diplomacy would represent a complete break with the policies of the Bush years. Obama has also struggled mightily with Latino voters, and Richardson would certainly help in that area too.

Cons for picking Richardson : Bill Richardson’s popularity has plummeted in New Mexico. An April Survey USA poll found that Richardson’s approval rating in the state was 53%. This is a 21% drop from the previous year. Richardson enjoys a 74% approval rating with blacks, a 58% approval rating with Hispanics, and only a 45% approval rating with white voters. He has only a 52% approval rating with Independents and 50% with moderates.

The selecting of Richardson might send white blue collar voters running into McCain’s arms. In many ways, Richardson is having the same problem in New Mexico that Barack Obama is having nationally. Richardson struggles with white voters in his state. Richardson also isn’t all that effective on the stump, and for all his foreign policy experience, his knowledge of domestic policy is very limited.

Odds of Obama selecting Richardson : Unless the Obama campaign thinks that they can win the White House with a coalition of young whites, black, and Hispanic voters, selecting Richardson probably isn’t the best idea. Should Obama win the general election, one could easily see Bill Richardson as Secretary of State in an Obama administration. Richardson would be a groundbreaking choice, but would not provide the most appealing ticket for voters in November.

The Choice-O-Meter Says:
OOOOO (5 O’s out of 10 for Bill Richardson)

[Benny B]

Pros and Cons: Kathleen Sebelius as Obama’s Running Mate

While all of the media focus is on Hillary Clinton’s desire to be vice president, in this edition of Pros and Cons we’ll take a look at a different woman, Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius. Could Sebelius be the non-Clinton ticket option for Obama?

Resume : Kathleen Sebelius is the currently serving her second term as Kansas governor. Prior to this she began her career by being elected to the Kansas House of Representatives in 1986. She left her seat in 1994, to run for a win the office of state insurance commissioner. She is credited with ending the influence of the insurance industry over the office of the insurance commissioner. Sebelius was born in Ohio, and is the daughter of the former governor John J. Gilligan. She is a former chair of Democratic Governors Association, and was tapped by the Democratic Party to deliver their response to President Bush’s 2008 State of the Union Address.

Pros to picking Sebelius : She is a very popular governor who has not had an approval rating under 60% in over two years. Adding her to the ticket would force the McCain campaign to spend some it s resources to keep a state in their column that should be solidly his. She could help soothe the feeling of many female Clinton supporters who desperately want to see a woman in the White House.

She is from Ohio, and her family history would certainly help the ticket in that critical swing state. She has been a public supporter of Obama’s campaign, and she and Obama are ideologically similar. She is a solid campaigner who has demonstrated a strong appeal with conservative Democrats and some Republicans.

Cons to picking Sebelius : Even though she a star of the Democratic Party, Sebelius is virtually unknown nationally. Picking a woman other than Hillary Clinton may only serve to infuriate her supporters. Sebelius vetoed a bill that would have allowed citizens who get permits to carry concealed weapons. This might not seem like much, but it is an issue that the Republicans and the NRA would jump on to paint the ticket as anti-gun. This criticism would hurt Obama most with voters in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

It is unlikely that Sebelius would help Obama in the South or West with rural white men. She is still untested on the national stage, and has no foreign policy experience. Sebelius would provide a gender balance, but she wouldn’t help the ticket much on non-domestic issues.

Odds of Obama selecting Sebelius : Her chances were much better until Hillary Clinton expressed an interest in being on the ticket. Even with Hillary in the picture, Sebelius should be on the Obama’s shortlist. If the campaign decides that they want a fresh face that can help promote their change message, Kathleen Sebelius would be a very good choice. Even if she doesn’t get on the ticket, I’m pretty sure that when her term is up in 2010, she is going to challenge, the less than popular Sam Brownback for his Senate seat.

The Choice-O-Meter Says:

OOOOOO (6 Os for Kathleen Sebelius)

(1 O = No Chance – 10 Os = A Sure Thing)

[Benny B]

Pros and Cons: Ted Strickland as Barack Obama’s Running Mate

In this edition of Pros and Cons we take a look at one Hillary Clinton supporter who might be a very logical choice to be Barack Obama’s running mate, Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH).

Resume: Ted Strickland is the current governor of Ohio, but prior to being elected in 2006, he served six terms in House of Representatives representing Ohio’s sixth district. Before winning his House seat, Strickland had run for the same seat, and lost in 1976, 1978, and 1980. Strickland won his seat in 1992, but lost in 1994, then regained it in 1996. Strickland has a doctorate in psychology, and a Masters from Asbury Theological Seminary. In the private sector, he has worked as a counseling psychologist, an administrator at a Methodist children’s home, and a psychology professor.

Pros for picking Strickland: He is a very popular governor from a critical swing state. Strickland’s approval numbers have taken a bit of a hit due to the economic downturn in Ohio. He has enjoyed approval ratings as high as 61%, and he currently sits at 54%. His disapproval ratings have been as low as 15% and as high as 39%. A look inside his approval rating for April reveals that he has a 57% approval rating with white voters. He is popular with voters over age 50 (61%) and voters over age 65 (68%). These are both groups that Obama has consistently struggled to court.

When he ran for governor, Strickland was publicly endorsed by 340 Republicans. In April he also had a 61% approval rating with gun owners in his state. Strickland has made bringing jobs to the state’s coal and energy industries, along with education and healthcare the top priorities on his agenda. Strickland is a conservative Democrat who could appeal to the Clinton Democrats, and help not only in Ohio, but in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky too.

Cons to picking Strickland: Strickland has only served as governor for almost a year and a half. His executive experience is extremely limited. The 66 year old Strickland may not be the kind of running mate that signals change to voters. It is uncertain whether or not Strickland even wants to be VP. He may be content to finish up his political career by serving two terms as governor. He probably would not help Obama in the South or West. He would be a choice that was meant to appeal solely to blue collar Democrats.

Odds of Obama selecting Strickland: Out of all of the Hillary Clinton supporters that get mentioned as potential running mates for Barack Obama, Strickland is the only one besides Clinton herself that deserves a long look. He probably would swing Ohio to Obama, and he might provide a nice counterbalance to Obama’s young, urban, liberal, appeal. At the end of the day, I wouldn’t rule out Strickland’s name being on Obama’s short list.

The Choice-O-Meter Says: (1 O = No Chance – 10 Os = A Sure Thing)
OOOOO (5 out of 10 for Ted Strickland)

[Benny B]

Five Governors Who Could Be Obama’s VP

Barack Obama has a wide range of Democrats to choose his running mate from. In recent years the Democratic Party has been able to elect 28 of the nation’s 50 governors. These state executives represent some of the party’s best talent. If Obama decides to add a governor to his ticket, here are five excellent choices.

1). Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) - Bill Richardson is the governor of New Mexico and a former candidate for the 2008 Democratic nomination. He is a nationally known figure due to his time as UN Ambassador and Energy Secretary under the Clinton administration. He has been nominated for five Nobel Prizes for his diplomatic work. His foreign policy is completely opposite from the current administration. He would help Obama with Hispanic voters, but he also struggles with white voters in his own state.

2). Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) - Obama seems to be concentrating the early part of his general election campaign in the West, and the addition of the folksy rural Schweitzer would be the perfect complement to this strategy. Schweitzer became Montana’s first Democratic governor in 20 years. Before being elected he had held no other office. In the private sector, he was a farmer and a rancher who also visited 37 different countries while working on agriculture projects. He has been a job creator and a tax cutter in his state, and would have great appeal to the rural voters who have thus far tuned Obama out.

3).Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) - If the Obama campaign is worried about their standing in the swing states, and wants to be certain that they Virginia into the Democratic column, then they should look no further than the popular Kaine. He was one of the first elected officials outside of Illinois to endorse Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. The 50 year old has not been afraid to cut agency spending in his state, and is also a pro-life Democrat. He could provide Obama a bridge to the conservative white Southern Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton.

4). Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) - If Obama decides that he would like a woman with executive experience, who isn’t Hillary Clinton, to balance out his ticket, then Sebelius would be his best option. She is wildly popular in her state. (She has not had an approval rating under 60% in the last two plus years). She was chosen to give the Democratic response to President Bush’s 2008 State of the Union Address. This has led many to speculate that she is being groomed for bigger things. Sebelius has been clearly pro-choice, anti capital punishment, and opposed to laws that would allow citizens to carry concealed weapons or own machine guns. Her political positions are a compliment to Obama’s, and she would likely have broad appeal with women.

5). Ted Strickland (D-OH) - Strickland continues the pattern of this feature. All of these governors are from swing or red states. His selection makes sense if the campaign decides that they need to add a Clinton supporter to the ticket. One of his priorities has been to bring jobs back to Ohio’s coal and energy industries. This is a message that would play well in places like West Virginia and Western PA. He made expanding educational opportunities and healthcare priorities on his agenda. If the race looks close, a Clinton supporter from a critical swing state could be very helpful.