Intrade changes their odds on Presidential outcome

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Dublin's world wagering/ odds firm "Intrade""

Obama = 63% chance of winning

McCain 34% chance of winning



I think Obama was 56% just 2 months ago.

[tonymctones]

Dublin's world wagering/ odds firm "Intrade""

Obama = 63% chance of winning

McCain 34% chance of winning



I think Obama was 56% just 2 months ago.

and the new gallup poll has mccain leading, AGAIN GO TAKE A RESEARCH METHODS CLASS

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and the new gallup poll has mccain leading, AGAIN GO TAKE A RESEARCH METHODS CLASS

I'd like to bitchslap you with my MBA then explain to you that 2 of the 3 gallup polls released this week have Obama ahead... mccain only leads in the 'likely' voters which excludes people who are motivated this time who were not in 2004.  You are citing a poll which is the outlier.  Stats 101 would tell you that using the outlier as your evidence, when most of the other polls point otherwise, is not the route ya wanna take.

[tonymctones]

I'd like to bitchslap you with my MBA then explain to you that 2 of the 3 gallup polls released this week have Obama ahead... mccain only leads in the 'likely' voters which excludes people who are motivated this time who were not in 2004.  You are citing a poll which is the outlier.  Stats 101 would tell you that using the outlier as your evidence, when most of the other polls point otherwise, is not the route ya wanna take.

actually stats 101 would tell you to research the parameters of the research used to conduct the poll that led to the outcome...yes except your MBA doesnt really address psychological stats which is what this would fall under.

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actually stats 101 would tell you to research the parameters of the research used to conduct the poll that led to the outcome...yes except your MBA doesnt really address psychological stats which is what this would fall under.

um, "psychological stat"?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx


Who are likely voters, and how do they differ from all registered voters?

Several groups of voters can be isolated in pre-election surveys: First is the group of all national adults, which is the basic sample designed to represent all adults 18 years of age and older. Second is the group of voters who say they are registered and able to vote in their local area, which is the group most commonly used for ballot and other questions directly related to the election. And third is the group of voters considered most likely to vote -- "likely voters," which is the group designed to be most predictive of those voters who actually turn out and vote on Election Day.

The relative importance of emphasizing one of these groups over the other can (and has been) debated. Clearly, in the final poll before an election, it's important to execute an estimate of the vote intentions of those most likely to vote. Many previous elections have shown that differential turnout can be a factor in a candidate's final vote tally beyond that candidate's relative position among all registered voters.

The value of looking at likely voters this far out ahead of the election is generally in the category of interesting, advisory information. The vote intentions of the pool of likely voters months before an election shows the potential that voter turnout can have on the popular vote outcome, but is not a predictor of what that turnout will look like on Election Day.

So, as a rule of thumb, registered voters are the relevant group to trend to establish basic patterns of change in voter support for presidential candidates. Likely voter modeling at this point is an additional analytic tool.

[tonymctones]

um, "psychological stat"?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx


Who are likely voters, and how do they differ from all registered voters?

Several groups of voters can be isolated in pre-election surveys: First is the group of all national adults, which is the basic sample designed to represent all adults 18 years of age and older. Second is the group of voters who say they are registered and able to vote in their local area, which is the group most commonly used for ballot and other questions directly related to the election. And third is the group of voters considered most likely to vote -- "likely voters," which is the group designed to be most predictive of those voters who actually turn out and vote on Election Day.

The relative importance of emphasizing one of these groups over the other can (and has been) debated. Clearly, in the final poll before an election, it's important to execute an estimate of the vote intentions of those most likely to vote. Many previous elections have shown that differential turnout can be a factor in a candidate's final vote tally beyond that candidate's relative position among all registered voters.

The value of looking at likely voters this far out ahead of the election is generally in the category of interesting, advisory information. The vote intentions of the pool of likely voters months before an election shows the potential that voter turnout can have on the popular vote outcome, but is not a predictor of what that turnout will look like on Election Day.

So, as a rule of thumb, registered voters are the relevant group to trend to establish basic patterns of change in voter support for presidential candidates. Likely voter modeling at this point is an additional analytic tool.

umm ya, who do you think comes up with these polls and interprets and such? psychologist

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umm ya, who do you think comes up with these polls and interprets and such? psychologist

All along I thought it was statisticians and people good at math.

Very cool find here!

[tonymctones]

All along I thought it was statisticians and people good at math.

Very cool find here!

cant tell if your being sarcastic or not, but you should look into it if you are. Psychologist are employed by many industries in many organizations that you probably arent aware of.

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cant tell if your being sarcastic or not, but you should look into it if you are. Psychologist are employed by many industries in many organizations that you probably arent aware of.

So they are employed (consulted?), or they are the primary creators, counters, and calculators of this test?

All the Gallup guys that go on TV to discuss the tests are high level math guys.  They must keep the psy op guys hidden. 

[tonymctones]

So they are employed (consulted?), or they are the primary creators, counters, and calculators of this test?

All the Gallup guys that go on TV to discuss the tests are high level math guys.  They must keep the psy op guys hidden. 

All, In an organization such as the Gallup Organization they are probably employed full time maybe you should look into behavioral science research where psychologist design, conduct, and analyze studies as an example. I bet youve never heard of an I/O psychologist either, you ever watch 'office space" you remember the 2 bobs they were I/O psychologist in that case they are probably consultants although there are full time positions for this type of job as well. You ever take a questionaire as part of a job application, that was more than likely designed by a psychologist. Like I said Psychologist are employed by many different industries and organizations you probably arent aware of.