Author Topic: Poll: Race for White House tied  (Read 917 times)

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63727
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Poll: Race for White House tied
« on: August 24, 2008, 07:33:52 PM »
I'll be holding my breath for Ozmo's "lol, CNN," comment.   :D

Poll: Race for White House tied
By Paul Steinhauser
CNN Deputy Political Director
     
DENVER, Colorado (CNN) -- It's a dead heat in the race for the White House.

The first national poll conducted after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that the battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and John McCain is all tied up.

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominees, with an equal amount supporting his Republican opponent, McCain.

"This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain."

So what's the difference now?

It may be supporters of Hillary Clinton, who still would prefer the New York senator and former first lady as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee.  Watch are Clinton backers on board? »

Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.

"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.

Clinton and Obama battled throughout the primary season, with Clinton winning more than 40 percent of the delegates. She suspended her bid for the White House and backed Obama in early June, after the end of primary season.

The majority of registered voters, 54 percent, say Obama's choice of Biden, D-Delaware, as his running mate is an "excellent" or "good decision." That number jumps to 73 percent when just asked of registered Democrats. But it drops to 59 percent when narrowed to Clinton supporters.  Watch more on the new VP candidate »

"It's not that there's anything wrong with the choice of Joe Biden. A majority rate the Biden selection as excellent or pretty good. Voters think he is qualified to be president, and with the exception of Al Gore in 1992, the public ranks Biden as the most qualified running mate in recent times," Holland said.  Watch more on Biden and the road ahead »

"A lot of Americans don't know who he is, but his favorable rating is 13 points higher than his unfavorables. But Biden is not Hillary Clinton, and it's possible that is enough to have moved some of her supporters away from the Democratic ticket, at least temporarily," says Holland.

Among all Democrats, only 38 percent say Obama should have selected Clinton as his running mate.


Still, 74 percent of all voters questioned in the survey said Obama's selection of Biden as a running mate won't have any effect on their vote for president.

The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, with 1,023 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all voters. For registered Democrats, it is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and for Democrats who still support Clinton for the party's nomination, it is plus or minus 7.5 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/24/election.2008.poll/index.html

OzmO

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 22723
  • Drink enough Kool-aid and you'll think its healthy
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2008, 07:39:33 PM »
You should change your name to "BlueBum" then.   8)


Polls don't mean crap right now.  They are both neck and neck.

Your recent obsession with polls is comical.


Wait until after the first heads up debate.  then they'll be more telling.

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63727
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2008, 07:41:53 PM »
You should change your name to "BlueBum" then.   8)


Polls don't mean crap right now.  They are both neck and neck.

You recent obsession with polls is comical.


Wait until after the first heads up debate.  then they'll be more telling.

Inconsistent. 

Recent obsession?  lol.  Dude I've probably posted one poll or another almost every week for the last year.

The debates will show us a bit, particularly the town hall debate.   

youandme

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 10956
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2008, 07:47:59 PM »
The debates will show us a bit, particularly the town hall debate.   

That would be awesome  ;D

If it ever happens  :-\

OzmO

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 22723
  • Drink enough Kool-aid and you'll think its healthy
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2008, 07:49:04 PM »
Inconsistent. 

Recent obsession?  lol.  Dude I've probably posted one poll or another almost every week for the last year.

The debates will show us a bit, particularly the town hall debate.   

irrelevant.


polls that is, at this time.

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63727
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2008, 07:55:24 PM »
irrelevant.


polls that is, at this time.

Not really.  They are discussion pieces.  They can also show trends, which can be predictors to some extent. 

For example, I'll be posting more after the conventions to show the extent of convention bounces both will receive.

Keep in mind we're less than 90 days away from the election.     

OzmO

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 22723
  • Drink enough Kool-aid and you'll think its healthy
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2008, 08:00:27 PM »
Not really.  They are discussion pieces.  They can also show trends, which can be predictors to some extent. 

For example, I'll be posting more after the conventions to show the extent of convention bounces both will receive.

Keep in mind we're less than 90 days away from the election.     

True.  about the conventions.

But what trends so far?  they bounced back and forth with Obama leading most of the time.   Big deal.

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63727
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2008, 08:01:15 PM »
That would be awesome  ;D

If it ever happens  :-\

I think the second debate is supposed to be town hall style.  Scheduled for 7 Oct. at Belmont University in Nashville.

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2008, 08:06:51 PM »
Polls only count when they show things tied.

When obama was up by ten, the polls were hogwash.  Today they're "telling".

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63727
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2008, 08:09:13 PM »
True.  about the conventions.

But what trends so far?  they bounced back and forth with Obama leading most of the time.   Big deal.

E.g., looking at where candidates polled at the same point in time in prior elections and how they ended up on election day.  Someone just posted (you?) how Carter (?) was polling at a certain point in time.  

You have at least one person on here who pretty much called the election for Obama about two months ago based on polls.  I think that's silly.  Dukakis led Bush and was wiped out.  I think Mondale actually led Reagan at some point.    

None of the polls are a big deal and I never said they were.  They're just something to talk about.
 

youandme

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 10956
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2008, 08:21:11 PM »
I think the second debate is supposed to be town hall style.  Scheduled for 7 Oct. at Belmont University in Nashville.

Thanks!

OzmO

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 22723
  • Drink enough Kool-aid and you'll think its healthy
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2008, 08:24:35 PM »
E.g., looking at where candidates polled at the same point in time in prior elections and how they ended up on election day.  Someone just posted (you?) how Carter (?) was polling at a certain point in time.  

You have at least one person on here who pretty much called the election for Obama about two months ago based on polls.  I think that's silly.  Dukakis led Bush and was wiped out.  I think Mondale actually led Reagan at some point.    

None of the polls are a big deal and I never said they were.  They're just something to talk about.
 

Carter's deal only shows how far off polls can be.

But we are here talking about it, so i guess you are right.   ;D

Dos Equis

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 63727
  • I am. The most interesting man in the world. (Not)
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2008, 08:34:07 PM »
Carter's deal only shows how far off polls can be.

But we are here talking about it, so i guess you are right.   ;D

Yes, they can be way off.  Even exit polling can be wrong.  (Unless you are a CT nut.)     

And yes we (including you) will continue to talk about them.   :)

headhuntersix

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 17271
  • Our forefathers would be shooting by now
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2008, 08:46:23 PM »
When Obama was up by ten, he was supposed to be up by ten..hil would still be up by ten. The fact that its near tied, with this economy, war etc etc....say much more about Obama then McCain or anything else.
L

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102396
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: Poll: Race for White House tied
« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2008, 09:04:39 PM »
When Obama was up by ten, he was supposed to be up by ten..hil would still be up by ten. The fact that its near tied, with this economy, war etc etc....say much more about Obama then McCain or anything else.

Hil was up by 30+ points over obammers and LoveChileEdwards.

If she couldn't hold a lead over two jokers like that, why would she hold it against mccain?