McCain risks losing center with this VP pick

[Hugo Chavez]

Wow, reaction from the conservative right is total delight!!!  Evangelicals and hardcore righties having an instant orgasm on this pick... What will that do to the middle and even slightly left leaning voters McCain had picked up?  Because he did have quite a few and it was a huge problem for Obama.  I think this was a good move.  He's going to lose some over this and there's far more people in the middle than on the right so I'm thinking he has more to lose than gain by picking up conservatives that would have and were already coming around to McCain anyway.  Yes, I like this pick by McCain.  Strategically disastrous.

[w8tlftr]

Hugo, can you name 3 things about McCain you like?

I'm not a fan of McCain but damn you really hate this guy.

[240 is Back]

He ALEREADY HAD those on the right.

I thought he'd pick lieberman and win the shit outright.

You don't throw a Hail Mary pass when things are close, taking a giant risk.
They were close in polls.

[Hugo Chavez]

They were close in the polls, it was clear that conservatives and evangelists were not about to make good on their threat and sit this out or run their own man, they were coming in line with McCain.  Palin is a hardcore pander to that solid right, very conservative Evangelical base.  I don't see where this is a win for McCain and I'm being honest here, these people were already lining up in McCain's camp despite being upset at some shit.  The only thing I see out of this is the potential for McCain to lose the middle.  Some of the left were ok with jumping in with McCain because he presented himself as a guy closer to the middle.  That was a huge problem for Obama.  In the coming days, all the dems have to do is come out and paint her for exactly what she admits to being and exactly why the far right and ultra conservatives are happy as hell.  McCain risks losing the middle in this to appease votes he already had.

[Dos Equis]

He ALEREADY HAD those on the right.

I thought he'd pick lieberman and win the shit outright.

You don't throw a Hail Mary pass when things are close, taking a giant risk.
They were close in polls.

Not true at all.  Social conservatives were all over McCain, threatening not to support him if he picked a pro choice candidate (like Ridge).  

You have been saying the national polls don't matter because Obama had an essentially insurmountable lead in the state-by-state delegate polls.  Now you say "[t]hey were close in polls."  Which is it?

[shootfighter1]

I see your point but don't think so.  Many will see her as a gov outsider, mom of 5, mayor and someone who has bucked her own party on several occasions.  She has a strong record of anti-corruption and ethics.  that will appeal to many...and never count out the desire of many women to see the first woman VP.
Obama is going to kick himself for the situation with Hillary. 

[Hugo Chavez]

Not true at all.  Social conservatives were all over McCain, threatening not to support him if he picked a pro choice candidate (like Ridge).  

You have been saying the national polls don't matter because Obama had an essentially insurmountable lead in the state-by-state delegate polls.  Now you say "[t]hey were close in polls."  Which is it?

idle threats to get their way and it worked.  There's no way they would have sat it out and McCain fell for it.  Fact, this move moves the campaign much farther right than it was.  Fact, he would have had the bulk of the right's vote no matter what threats they made.  Fact, this leaves McCain to worry about the people he picked up in the middle which was substantial.  I'm sure we'll see a different McCain now to try and balance it out and maintain those voters but I'm not sure it'll work.  We'll see.

[MCWAY]

They were close in the polls, it was clear that conservatives and evangelists were not about to make good on their threat and sit this out or run their own man, they were coming in line with McCain.  Palin is a hardcore pander to that solid right, very conservative Evangelical base.  I don't see where this is a win for McCain and I'm being honest here, these people were already lining up in McCain's camp despite being upset at some shit.  The only thing I see out of this is the potential for McCain to lose the middle.  Some of the left were ok with jumping in with McCain because he presented himself as a guy closer to the middle.  That was a huge problem for Obama.  In the coming days, all the dems have to do is come out and paint her for exactly what she admits to being and exactly why the far right and ultra conservatives are happy as hell.  McCain risks losing the middle in this to appease votes he already had.

You’re right!!! They are close…..WITHOUT the evangelical vote behind McCain. That should concern the liberals BIG TIME. Remember, the liberals blamed the evangelical Christian voters for helping get Bush re-elected. Evangelicals weren’t too thrilled with McCain. Obama has the press fawning over him and FAR more money to spend. Yet, they’re DEAD EVEN!!!

McCain CANNOT win without the evangelicals/social conservatives, period. As we say in the south, “You dance with the one that brung ya!!” But, if the evangelicals (and the Democratic PUMAs) rally behind McCain, it may be “lights out” for Team Obama.

As I said in another thread…Business has just picked up!!!

[Hugo Chavez]

I see your point but don't think so.  Many will see her as a gov outsider, mom of 5, mayor and someone who has bucked her own party on several occasions.  She has a strong record of anti-corruption and ethics.  that will appeal to many...and never count out the desire of many women to see the first woman VP.
Obama is going to kick himself for the situation with Hillary. 

I'm just saying, he wasn't nearly at risk of losing the right as the right portrayed.  The middle IS there to lose.  So yea, the stuff that you just mentioned will be appealing and they'll play it that way, but regardless, she is a move to appease ultra conservatives and the middle will see it.  The middle is losable, the right never was for McCain, even with all their talk.  Even Pat Buchanan came around to back Bush despite all the threats and attacks on the neoconservitives surrounding him.

[Dos Equis]

idle threats to get their way and it worked.  There's no way they would have sat it out and McCain fell for it.  Fact, this move moves the campaign much farther right than it was.  Fact, he would have had the bulk of the right's vote no matter what threats they made.  Fact, this leaves McCain to worry about the people he picked up in the middle which was substantial.  I'm sure we'll see a different McCain now to try and balance it out and maintain those voters but I'm not sure it'll work.  We'll see.

Yes' we'll see.  I don't think they were idle threats.  Do you recall Colossus saying he wasn't even sure he was going to vote in November?  I think a lot of Christian conservative voters like him may have stayed home if McCain picked someone like Ridge (pro choice).  

McCain didn't need to pick a moderate to win in November.  He is a moderate.  He needed to pick a conservative.  Conservatives don't have problems winning presidential elections.  Reagan/Bush were both conservatives and won.  Bush Sr. won.  Dubya won twice against two liberals.  I think we'll see a repeat in November.  

[24KT]

I think many people will realize this is an all-out desperate attempt to grap Hilary supporters.
She was a mayor of a town of 6,500 in the middle of nowhere, and backed by oil interests? 

[Hugo Chavez]

Yes' we'll see.  I don't think they were idle threats.  Do you recall Colossus saying he wasn't even sure he was going to vote in November?  I think a lot of Christian conservative voters like him may have stayed home if McCain picked someone like Ridge (pro choice).  

McCain didn't need to pick a moderate to win in November.  He is a moderate.  He needed to pick a conservative.  Conservatives don't have problems winning presidential elections.  Reagan/Bush were both conservatives and won.  Bush Sr. won.  Dubya won twice against two liberals.  I think we'll see a repeat in November.  

yea, it wouldn't happen, these guys would have found plenty of reasons to vote McCain over Obama.  And my point is true, these guys threatening WERE coming around anyway!  That is a fact.  The McCain camp actually did an insanely good job at appearing to appease this ultra conservative crowd that was pissed.  We saw that after the first (rigged) debate.  I think it's valid and I"m just saying, he has more to lose from the middle than he ever did in reality from the right.  I'm sure they're aware of this and we'll see a different McCain after today.  He's going to move for that middle before losing them and view this VP as a STFU consession to the right.  Will it work?  It's risky.

[Colossus_500]

Not true at all.  Social conservatives were all over McCain, threatening not to support him if he picked a pro choice candidate (like Ridge). 

You have been saying the national polls don't matter because Obama had an essentially insurmountable lead in the state-by-state delegate polls.  Now you say "[t]hey were close in polls."  Which is it?

True!!!!!

[Hugo Chavez]

True!!!!!

LOL, nice try, but not buying you would sit out on McCain and elect Obama lol...

[shootfighter1]

Your point is valid hugo.  I also think Obama has lost moderates compared to earlier this year as more has come out about his leftist positions.  A lot of small business owners are against obama.  A lot of moderate females were turned off by the way his campaign handled Hillary.
Palin may have energized the right, but I agree, most would have voted for McCain.  However, I think McCain will pick up more Women and a % of the Hillary voters, in addition to some of the people that were undecided.  Palin has a very attractive message and is a leader but a Washington outsider.

[a_joker10]

She is igniting the christian right.
This is a big deal.
If they are close to 90% with registered republicans it will take only a few undecided to turn the corner for McCain.

McCain didn't have the base and many were down right terrified about a prolife VP.

[Colossus_500]

He ALREADY HAD those on the right.

UH..... no he did NOT! 

[Colossus_500]

You’re right!!! They are close…..WITHOUT the evangelical vote behind McCain. That should concern the liberals BIG TIME. Remember, the liberals blamed the evangelical Christian voters for helping get Bush re-elected. Evangelicals weren’t too thrilled with McCain. Obama has the press fawning over him and FAR more money to spend. Yet, they’re DEAD EVEN!!!

McCain CANNOT win without the evangelicals/social conservatives, period. As we say in the south, “You dance with the one that brung ya!!” But, if the evangelicals (and the Democratic PUMAs) rally behind McCain, it may be “lights out” for Team Obama.

As I said in another thread…Business has just picked up!!!

Excellent post, MCWAY! 

[Benny B]

Palin would outlaw abortion under any circumstances, including rape or incest. So if your sister, wife or girlfriend were raped, she has to give birth to the baby in Palin's world.
Ridiculous.

[Dos Equis]

That's actually the most consistent pro life stance. 

To put this in perspective, abortions as a result of rape or incest account for less than 1 percent of all abortions.  At least one study showed that "95 percent of those who mentioned rape or incest named other reasons as well for deciding to abort . . . ."  http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=health&res=950DE1DC1039F930A25753C1A96F948260

In other words, the chances of your sister, wife, or girlfriend being raped, impregnated, and deciding to have an abortion solely because of the rape or incest, appear to be pretty slim. 

[Benny B]

That's actually the most consistent pro life stance. 

To put this in perspective, abortions as a result of rape or incest account for less than 1 percent of all abortions.  At least one study showed that "95 percent of those who mentioned rape or incest named other reasons as well for deciding to abort . . . ."  http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=health&res=950DE1DC1039F930A25753C1A96F948260

In other words, the chances of your sister, wife, or girlfriend being raped, impregnated, and deciding to have an abortion solely because of the rape or incest, appear to be pretty slim. 

I agree it is the most consistent stance. No matter how "slim" the odds are, those crime can still happen. To make a criminal out of a woman who would not want to carry the baby to full term is, to me, ridiculous.

In any event, abortion is not a big issue for me. It certainly is for MANY women however, the only reason this woman is on the ticket.

[Dos Equis]

I agree it is the most consistent stance. No matter how "slim" the odds are, those crime can still happen. To make a criminal out of a woman who would not want to carry the baby to full term is, to me, ridiculous.

In any event, abortion is not a big issue for me. It certainly is for MANY women however, the only reason this woman is on the ticket.

It is a very difficult issue.  I try not to even debate it.  There really isn't a good political solution IMO.

[MCWAY]

I think many people will realize this is an all-out desperate attempt to grap Hilary supporters.
She was a mayor of a town of 6,500 in the middle of nowhere, and backed by oil interests? 

You're a "jaguar"; I would have thought you'd appreciate reaching out to "PUMAs". 

[shootfighter1]

For what its worth, I think in the case of rape, its up to the woman in the 1st trimester to have an abortion. 
In a time of economic crisis and changing world order, abortion is lower on this list of critical topics.

[MCWAY]

For what its worth, I think in the case of rape, its up to the woman in the 1st trimester to have an abortion. 
In a time of economic crisis and changing world order, abortion is lower on this list of critical topics.

Perhaps, it is. But, with Palin on the tickets, conservative women may feel they no longer have to pick between social and economic issues. That could be a reason for all of the buzz.

Plus, many would agree with you on that condition for abortion. But, since rape (along with incest and endangerment of mother's life, the "hard cases) makes up a small percentage of abortions, if such a law were enacted, abortion mills would be closing down left and right.