I don't care what you say, this will be a VP choice that either wins him or loses him the pres. It is a gamble and the religious rightwing threats WERE primarily a bluff. He IS going to have to calm the middle soon and fast or there will be a defection.
How can there be a "defection" of people in the middle? They're undecided, one way or the other. They DON'T have a side from or to which to defect.
And, I'm not disagreeing with you entirely. If it wins him the election, part of the reason will be because it energized a prior-to-Friday LETHARGIC conservative Christian base. Again, McCain may win with them; but he WON'T win without them, bottom line.