McCain More Likely to Drop Palin, Bookmakers Say
Mark Deen Tue Sep 2
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The smart money thinks there's a better chance today than yesterday that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Before the Republican senator's presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.
``While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it's not completely impossible,'' said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. ``Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking' Sarah's days are numbered,'' he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.
The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29. Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.
``Ever since he appointed her, people have stopped betting on McCain,'' said David Williams of Ladbrokes in London. ``He went down like a sack of potatoes as far as the punters are concerned.''
Odds for Palin
Today, William Hill cut the odds that Palin, 44, would be sacked to 8-1 from 20-1. Paddy Power now puts the odds of Palin leaving the ticket at 14-1, compared to 28-1 before yesterday's disclosure about Bristol Palin, the daughter. The Paddy Power betting house is also offering 33-1 odds that she will go by the end of this week. Ladbrokes is offering 10-1 odds that Palin will quit the race.
Intrade, a Dublin-based peer-to-peer betting Web site, opened a contract on Palin to be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee. The latest price was 12 cents, up 9 cents today. Each contract at that price will pay 88 cents per contract if Palin leaves the ticket.
Political betting on financial markets outperforms polling as an elections predictor, according to a University of North Carolina study and figures from the Iowa Electronic Markets. Only twice in the century through 2004 -- the 1916 election and the 2000 contest between Bush and Democrat Al Gore -- did the betting markets get it wrong on the popular vote.
Eagleton's Demise
The last time a vice presidential candidate was dropped from the ticket was in 1972, when George McGovern's pick for the job, Tom Eagleton, left the Democratic campaign after disclosures he had undergone treatment for depression. McGovern went on to lose the election to Republican Richard Nixon.
``It would be disastrous for his campaign were McCain to sack Palin, but it is not impossible that she could stand down should party chiefs feel that she is too controversial a choice who might end up costing McCain votes,'' said William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe.
The betting houses also say punters are shifting toward an eventual Obama victory in November. Paddy Power said Obama is now favored 4-9 compared with 1-2 before the Palin appointment. William Hill said Obama's odds shifted last week to 4-9, where they now remain, from 4-11 on Aug. 21 and 2-5 before that.
Ladbrokes also puts Obama as the 4-9 favorite.
Odds on victory for McCain, who is 72, are 13-8, according to both Paddy Power and William Hill. Ladbrokes gives McCain a slightly better chance of winning, offering 6 pounds for every four bet on that outcome.
McCain advisers Stephen Schmidt and Mark Salter told reporters in St. Paul, Minnesota, yesterday that the campaign learned of Bristol's pregnancy when the mother was vetted.
Obama, campaigning in Monroe, Michigan, said yesterday Palin's children should be ``off limits'' and cited his own mother, who gave birth to Obama when she was 18. Obama named Senator Joe Biden as his running mate last month.
To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Deen in London at markdeen@bloomberg.net
