Pollster says election could end in landslide

[OzmO]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20080925/NEWS01/80925009/1002/NEWS


One of the country's top pollsters was in Rochester on Thursday and suggested that the November presidential election will end in an electoral landslide, even though the candidates are running close.

"Essentially the election is at equilibrium," said John Zogby, president of Zogby International. "This election will stay close until the end."

Zogby said he thinks the race will turn in the last weekend before Election Day and though the popular vote will be tight, the successful candidate will win in a landslide.
He likened this year's election to the contest in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter.

"This may be and probably is the most important election in our lifetime," Zogby said. "I don't say that lightly."

Despite two books by Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, Americans still don't know enough about him. And if they don't think they know him well enough by the time they vote, they'll go with the "comfortable old shoe," Republican Sen. John McCain, Zogby said.

If Obama can convince voters, he'll increase turnout among young people and minorities, Zogby said.

Zogby later added that if the winner doesn't kick off his presidency with a period of reform, he will risk alienating a generation of voters.

The founder of the Utica-based polling firm spoke during a "Business Briefing" at the SUNY Brockport's MetroCenter downtown on St. Paul Street.

Zogby identified five themes among today's voters, from the widely held opinion that the country is headed in the wrong direction — 80 percent of Americans think so, he said — to the resurgence of the "center" of the electorate.

"It is the center that is driving this election," he said. "It is the center that will decide this election."

These voters are looking for a problem-solver, someone who can manage the government competently, he said.

[Grape Ape]

Interesting.

I'll admit, I have no feel at all for this thing.  I've seen convincing arguments on both sides that predict totally opposite outcomes.

If I had to bet today, I'd say Obama will win, despite being a horrible candidate.  The last round of senate elections was a message being sent to the current administration by the public that they're sick of the war.  They will probalby send the same message this election about the economy, whether deserving or not.

[Benny B]

Interesting.

If I had to bet today, I'd say Obama will win, despite being a horrible because he is a fantastic candidate. 

I'll go along with that.

[Grape Ape]

I'll go along with that.

Yes, I guess if you ignore that he launched his campaign in the house of a cop killer, get spiritual advisement from a known racist, has a whole 140 something days of Senate experience, and is a complete enemy of the U.S. constitution, he is a great candidate.  But that stuff doesn't matter, he's getting a free pass on everything.

Obama will become the ultimate affirmitvie action hire.

Keep in mind I'm no fan of McCain, either.

[Camel Jockey]

Wouldn't surprised me if the election polls were close to the last day only to still have Obama win in a landslide. McCain with his campaign suspension drama isn't exactly helping himself with voters or even the media for that matter.

[Grape Ape]

Wouldn't surprised me if the election polls were close to the last day only to still have Obama win in a landslide. McCain with his campaign suspension drama isn't exactly helping himself with voters or even the media for that matter.

McCain wouldn't get unbiased media coverage anyway.  Plus, there's plenty of time for things to shift, just as we've seen with the Palin bump.

I still stick to what I said at the top, though.

[240 is Back]

The statiticians on the liberal blog sites say it'll be an electoral blowout - with Obama grabbing 1% wins in 5 or 7 Bush 04 states.   But also, they think it'll be something close, like a 50 - 48 national, when all is said and done.

[headhuntersix]

Lib blog good job 240...anyway once McCain steps on stage, none of this crap matters. What happens during and the spin after  will drive polls until the next debate.....

[Benny B]

Yes, I guess if you ignore that he launched his campaign in the house of a cop killer on the steps of the Illinois Statehouse, get spiritual advisement from a known racist man who says the politically incorrect thing but says the TRUTH, has a whole 140 something days of Senate experiencewas elected to the U.S. Senate in November 2004 with 70% of the vote, and is a complete enemy of the U.S. constitution he is a great candidate.  But that stuff doesn't matter, he's getting a free pass on everything he is clearly the smarter and best candidate for the job.

Fixed

Obama will become the ultimate affirmitvie action hire.

How so, when he would be elected by the American people? 

Keep in mind I'm no fan of McCain, either.

Why not?

[headhuntersix]

I'm sorry ur worried about facts, typical lib, trying to squash debate...Ayers..pos terrorist and Obama friend.....Rev Wright pos rascist, part time work in Ill...barely anytime spent in Congress...and yes he's getting a free pass. If the media was as fired up to go after Obama as they were for Palin, ur boy would be curled up in fetal position with a gun in his mouth. We've see him whine on stage when his past is brought up, we've seen his campaign try and block investigations, ads, and some in the media from digging into him.

[Grape Ape]

How so, when he would be elected by the American people? 

That's how affirmitive action works.  It doesn't mean black people getting hired by black people.

To anwser you question about McCain, I really disagree with some of the stances he has taken, particulary with respect to illegal immigration.  There's other expamples too - he's just less potentially dangerous to me.

[240 is Back]

HH6, you're a smart guy and I know you said you settled for mccain because you disliked barry so much.

You gotta be shaking your head at Palin.  Way out of her league.

[Benny B]

That's how affirmitive action works.

 
Really? Affirmative action works by putting a potential employee to a nationwide vote where people are free to choose whether or not the person is sufficiently competent for the position without regards to anyone else's thoughts or opinions? I didn't know this.

It doesn't mean black people getting hired by black people.

So if a so-called minority owns a business (and there are blacks who own businesses and/or supervise employees, you know  ) they do not have to adhere to anti-discrimination laws? 
 

To anwser you question about McCain, I really disagree with some of the stances he has taken, particulary with respect to illegal immigration.  There's other expamples too - he's just less potentially dangerous to me.

Ok. "Dangerous" and Obama don't belong in the same sentence, in my opinion. Obama is about as pragmatic and as thoughtful a politician as they come. McCain, on the other hand, is a known hothead who has acted very erratic throughout this campaign (just look at his behavior this week), is 72 years old, and selected a person totally unprepared to be president as his VP nominee. God help us all should this guy get elected.

[Grape Ape]

 
Really? Affirmative action works by putting a potential employee to a nationwide vote where people are free to choose whether or not the person is sufficiently competent for the position without regards to anyone else's thoughts or opinions? I didn't know this.

Affirmitive Action means people have to get hired because of their ethnicity.  Obama is only at this stage of the game because of his ethnicity.  If he was John Smith, Senator from Illinois with the exact same resume, he wouldn't be here becasue he wouldn't have received 90% of the black vote needed in certain states to beat Clinton.

Ok. "Dangerous" and Obama don't belong in the same sentence, in my opinion. Obama is about as pragmatic and as thoughtful a politician as they come. McCain, on the other hand, is a known hothead who has acted very erratic throughout this campaign (just look at his behavior this week), is 72 years old, and selected a person totally unprepared to be president as his VP nominee. God help us all should this guy get elected.

He's too far left and too green for my tastes, that's all.  Any experience criticism thrown at Palin can easily be thrown right back at Obama.   Yes, she's a purley POLITICAL move, only, in her case, someone has to die for her to be President.  Not so with Obama.

[blacken700]

[Benny B]

Affirmitive Action means people have to get hired because of their ethnicity.  Obama is only at this stage of the game because of his ethnicity.  If he was John Smith, Senator from Illinois with the exact same resume, he wouldn't be here becasue he wouldn't have received 90% of the black vote needed in certain states to beat Clinton.

Gee, isn't gender a factor in affirmative action policies?  Many will argue that white women have benefited from affirmative action more than anyone else. White women were no more than secretaries in corporate America before Civil Rights legislation was passed. I think you might want to read up a bit more on affirmative action and illegal hiring practices. 

I still don't understand how affirmative action works in an election where people are free to choose who to vote for in a private voting booth without having to consider the opinions of anyone else. 

Can you tell me the percentage of blacks in the state of Iowa (the state that propelled Obama in the democratic primaries)? How about Idaho, Vermont, Wyoming, Nebraska, or North Dakota?

He's too far left and too green for my tastes, that's all.  Any experience criticism thrown at Palin can easily be thrown right back at Obama.   Yes, she's a purley POLITICAL move, only, in her case, someone has to die for her to be President.  Not so with Obama.

If Obama is "too far left" then I assume you automatically vote Republican in every election, and that is certainly your prerogative.

Obama has been campaigning for 20 months and therefore has proven himself in the eyes of most Americans.  He has shown poise, intelligence, and a grasp of the issues. He has participated in over 20 debates, won 18million+ votes and the nomination of his party. How many votes has Sarah Palin gotten? How long has she been on the national scene? How many tough talk shows (such as Meet The Press) and impromptu questions has she had to answer? If you can answer those questions with a modicum of honesty and still make the case for Palin being Obama's equal, I'll give you props. 

By the way, the fact that "someone has to die" for Palin to be president is all the more reason why her selection was irresponsible. Anyone can die tomorrow...you, me, and 72 year old John McCain. She has to be ready on day one. Palin appears to be incapable of being ready on day 101.

[Grape Ape]

Gee, isn't gender a factor in affirmative action policies?  Many will argue that white women have benefited from affirmative action more than anyone else. White women were no more than secretaries in corporate America before Civil Rights legislation was passed. I think you might want to read up a bit more on affirmative action and illegal hiring practices. 

I still don't understand how affirmative action works in an election where people are free to choose who to vote for in a private voting booth without having to consider the opinions of anyone else. 

First, I don't get the " ".  It's dismissive, so I won't bother having discussions with you if it you do it.  You may think I'm a dick and want that anyway, it's your perrogative.

The point was that Obama's here because of his race, which is what affirmitvie action is.   If you want to break it down to semantics to poke holes in it fine, but that was my only point with it.

If Obama is "too far left" then I assume you automatically vote Republican in every election, and that is certainly your prerogative.

So far I have, but it's not automatic.  I'm not all or nothing with this stuff, there are differnet levels.   Obama's voting record and beliefs put him on the radical end of the left spectrum.

Obama has been campaigning for 20 months and therefore has proven himself in the eyes of most Americans.  He has shown poise, intelligence, and a grasp of the issues. He has participated in over 20 debates, won 18million+ votes and the nomination of his party. How many votes has Sarah Palin gotten? How long has she been on the national scene? How many tough talk shows (such as Meet The Press) and impromptu questions has she had to answer? If you can answer those questions with a modicum of honesty and still make the case for Palin being Obama's equal, I'll give you props. 

I never understood how campaiging for an office earns you experience for that office.   Palin getting votes makes no sense.  VP don't get votes, they're chosen by the .   Palin was a politcal move, we get that.  She's inexperienced, we get that.  She's not running for President.  The fact that the resumes between the inexperienced Republican VP nominee and the Democratic Presidential nominee are even being compared speaks volumes.