Ok. Lets go back to 2004. The polls showed it neck and neck and GWB actually won by 2 million votes. In fact, the early exit polls seemed show that Kerry would win.
How did that turn out?
CNN survey: Bush maintains Electoral College lead
(September 30, 2004) CORAL GABLES, Florida (CNN) -- George Bush continued to threaten John Kerry's grasp on several reliably Democratic states this week and solidified his lead in others, according to CNN's weekly Electoral College analysis conducted before Thursday night's first presidential debate.
Still, the analysis indicated Bush's lead in the all-important Electoral College was unchanged from last week.
If the election were held today, Bush would receive 301 electoral votes to Kerry's 237, according to a CNN survey based on state polling as well as interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins the election with 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular vote.
Bush leads in 33 states, including the country's entire southern rim (except California) and the mountain and the plains regions, the survey indicates. Kerry leads in the District of Columbia and 17 states, including the West Coast and most of the Northeast. The two candidates continue to battle for control of the industrial Midwest.
The CNN survey reflects national trends, which show Bush's average lead over Kerry virtually unchanged from last week.
Bush has an average 5 percentage point lead in nationwide polls, according to a CNN review of public polling. Ten polls released over the past week, including the CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey,
show between a 3- and 8-point lead for the president, who has remained slightly ahead of Kerry since the GOP convention ended in early September.
