New Pew Poll - and they were 100% accurate in 2004

[Mad Nickels]

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

A breakdown of voting intentions by demographic groups shows that since mid- September, McCain’s support has declined significantly across most voting blocs. Currently, McCain holds a statistically significant advantage only among white evangelical Protestants (aside from Republicans). In addition, Obama runs nearly even with McCain in the so-called red states, all of which George W. Bush won in 2004.

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.

Also for comparison sake... in 2004, Pew's last poll was Bush 51, Kerry 48. They were spot on!

[Hedgehog]

I think this highlight a big problem for McCain.
He's not able to get a big turnout of voters - a lot of Republicans are probably not going to vote at all.

I fear that this could get real ugly on election day.

I always predicted that McCain would pull real close in the end. Partly because of his exciting personality and partly because people will be reluctant to vote for a black guy.

But now.. Obama's looking stronger for every day. And McCain and Palin have started the blame game already?
   
Even McCain is talking about not giving the Democrats 60+ seats. Sounds like a guy believing in winning the presidency?

Obama could win some states that aren't even considered toss up.

Just because McCain isn't putting up a fight that enough core voters care about.   

[Hedgehog]

I think this highlight a big problem for McCain.
He's not able to get a big turnout of voters - a lot of Republicans are probably not going to vote at all.

I fear that this could get real ugly on election day.

I always predicted that McCain would pull real close in the end. Partly because of his exciting personality and partly because people will be reluctant to vote for a black guy.

But now.. Obama's looking stronger for every day. And McCain and Palin have started the blame game already?
   
Even McCain is talking about not giving the Democrats 60+ seats. Sounds like a guy believing in winning the presidency?

Obama could win some states that aren't even considered toss up.

Just because McCain isn't putting up a fight that enough core voters care about.   

[Dan-O]

I "hope" that McCain's supporters are just keeping quiet and will let their votes do the talking on election day, whereas Obama's supporters are the more vocal type who like to be in the public spotlight and hear themselves talk.   That's my hope...  whether or not that's how it really is, we will just have to see.

McCain could certainly be putting up more of a fight, I agree...  whereas even Bill O'Reilly conceded on Letterman last night, that Obama has run a more or less perfect campaign.

[liberalismo]

I ignore polls.