How the Political Pundints/Experts are Calling it!

[MattT]

These guys know more then all of us.

http://www.politico.com/arena/

 Norman J. Ornstein, Resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute:

I was going to sit it out-- but what the hell. A seven point Obama popular vote margin, 52% to 45%. 380 electoral votes for Obama. Upset-- Obama takes Montana. Dems gain 28 House seats, leaving them with 263, and 8 Senate seats to get effectively to 59. In the House, Joe Garcia defeats Mario Diaz-Balart.




 David Marchick, Managing Director, The Carlyle Group:

Popular vote percentages: Obama 53; McCain 46; Other 1


Electoral college: Obama 363; McCain 175

Extra credit surprise state: Obama wins North Dakota

House: Dems +24 seats; D 260; R 175

Senate: Dems +9 seats; D 60 including Lieberman and Sanders; R 40

Extra credit upsets--Jim Martin wins Senate in Georgia; Dems wait out long lines at polls; Republicans get frustrated and don’t vote


Second Round


Lanny Davis, Attorney and Democratic strategist:

Popular vote percentages: Obama 53; McCain 45; Other 2

Electoral college: Obama 370; McCain 168

Extra credit surprise state: Obama wins Georgia

House: Dems+10 seats; D 266; R 169

Senate: Dems +9 seats; D 59; R 40

Extra credit upsets: Democrat Bruce Lunsford defeats McConnell for Kentucky U.S. Senate

First Round

[Mad Nickels]

Extra credit upsets--Jim Martin wins Senate in Georgia; Dems wait out long lines at polls; Republicans get frustrated and don’t vote

Yeah, lines in Georgia are hours long.

I see motivated young people braving it out.  I don't see 75 year old women doing it.

[Cromespyder]

obama supporters may get too confident and not vote, i think there will be a higher turnout among mccain supporters.

[MattT]

obama supporters may get too confident and not vote, i think there will be a higher turnout among mccain supporters.

lol few days ago in NM Mcbush had a rally and 1400 people turned up, and Obama had a rally the same day in NM and 45,000 people showed up    I don't know why people think Obama supporters r goin to sit it out This is an historical election, and they will get out and vote  Obama has 400 paid staffers in PA just on election day to get people out to vote, thats more then any other election in history. Now times 400 paid staffers times all other states obama is in and he'll get things done   Kerry lost cause he ran out of money, Obama doesn't have that problem.

[Hugo Chavez]

I think a conservative think tank with a bunch of neocons in their group are the last people on earth you should be quoting and saying they know more than all of us here   Not sure why you keep posting this stuff...  If you're for Obama you're not helping.

[Dan-O]

lol few days ago in NM Mcbush had a rally and 1400 people turned up, and Obama had a rally the same day in NM and 45,000 people showed up    I don't know why people think Obama supporters r goin to sit it out This is an historical election, and they will get out and vote  Obama has 400 paid staffers in PA just on election day to get people out to vote, thats more then any other election in history. Now times 400 paid staffers times all other states obama is in and he'll get things done   Kerry lost cause he ran out of money, Obama doesn't have that problem.

Big deal...  rally schmally!!  McCain's supporters undoubtedly had other things going on...  like being AT WORK or otherwise attending to their own business...  I don't know how the election is going to turn out, obviously...  but still, how many people attend a "rally" is basically irrelevant and has no bearing on what the results are going to be on election day. 

[Mad Nickels]

Big deal...  rally schmally!!  McCain's supporters undoubtedly had other things going on...  like being AT WORK or otherwise attending to their own business...  I don't know how the election is going to turn out, obviously...  but still, how many people attend a "rally" is basically irrelevant and has no bearing on what the results are going to be on election day. 

You can argue it won't have *much* of an effect...

But..

If canddiate A convinced 100,000 people to drop everything and come see him speak for 8 minutes,
And candidate B convinces 2,000 people to do the same...

There is no way you can say with a straight face that A won't have a better chance of more voters showing up.

[CQ]

Big deal...  rally schmally!!  McCain's supporters undoubtedly had other things going on...  like being AT WORK or otherwise attending to their own business...  I don't know how the election is going to turn out, obviously...  but still, how many people attend a "rally" is basically irrelevant and has no bearing on what the results are going to be on election day. 

I would agree if it was one off, but the number disparity is for like every rally - 5 - 10 a week - for months. As in like well over 100 times Obama has drawn huge crowds, whoile McCain gets some stragglers.

Doesn't mean they will vote of course, but is some form of a generic indicator as Mad Nickels says.

[Dan-O]

You can argue it won't have *much* of an effect...

But..

If canddiate A convinced 100,000 people to drop everything and come see him speak for 8 minutes,
And candidate B convinces 2,000 people to do the same...

There is no way you can say with a straight face that A won't have a better chance of more voters showing up.

Maybe you're right...  but like I said in another thread, I'm "hoping" that McCain's supporters are just going to let their votes do the talking on election day.  And maybe Obama's supporters are the more vocal types that like to get out and make some noise and hear themselves talk.  That's just a gut feeling and a hope and maybe I'm totally up in the night and delusional...  But regardless, I put little to no stock in poll results and rally attendance... we shall see in a few days.

[shootfighter1]

I have a gut feeling the popular vote will be very close.  Obama will likely pull a significant victory with the electoral college though.
Many McCain supporters are luke warm on McCain but against Obama's policies.  We don't hear as much from these people but will see their votes on election day.

[Grape Ape]

Many McCain supporters are luke warm on McCain but against Obama's policies.  We don't hear as much from these people but will see their votes on election day.

That's basically how I feel.  McCain is a lousy candidate for a Republican and I disagree with a ton of things he says.  I just disagree with Obama more.

[Dan-O]

That's basically how I feel.  McCain is a lousy candidate for a Republican and I disagree with a ton of things he says.  I just disagree with Obama more.

That's exactly how I feel too.  Which may not bode well for McCain's chances.