Tue Oct 28, 2008WASHINGTON (AFP) – Barack Obama, if he is elected US president next week, will disappoint his many European admirers when they find out he has no "magic wand" to change American foreign policy, analysts warn.
Analysts say that the Democratic candidate -- whom Europeans overwhelmingly favor over his Republican rival John McCain -- will likely change just the style rather than the substance of diplomacy.
A recent poll showed that 78 percent of the French, 72 percent of Germans, 68 percent of Spaniards, 66 percent of Italians and 48 percent of Britons would like to see Obama elected on November 4.
The poll, by France 24 television and the Paris-based International Herald Tribune newspaper, showed that McCain had the support of only one percent of the French surveyed, five percent of Germans and eight percent of Spaniards.
"There is an expectation by the Europeans that Barack Obama could come in as president and he is going to wave his magic wand and everything is going to be different," said James Goldgeier, expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
"If he were to win, we would see a huge change in just the whole tone of American foreign policy ," according to the former diplomat who is a specialist in trans-Atlantic relations.
However, on some key subjects, like the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and ties with Russia, Obama "is much more constrained" politically, Goldgeier told AFP.
"No president of the United States can tell the Russians: Yes, you can just do whatever you want in Georgia," the analyst said.
According to Obama's website, "Barack Obama and (vice presidential candidate) Joe Biden believe the process of NATO enlargement -- which has helped countries throughout Central and Eastern Europe become more stable and democratic -- should continue so long as new candidates for membership are democratic, peaceful, and willing to contribute to our common security."
Obama has promised to consult US allies more than incumbent George W. Bush has on key international issues, but at the same time he has signaled he will expect more cooperation from the Europeans, especially on Afghanistan.
"Barack Obama and Joe Biden will expect allies to commit more resources to this common mission and to remove some of the limits on what their troops in country can do," said Obama's website.
The Democratic candidate has therefore adopted the position of President George W. Bush's administration in urging the European Union to send more combat troops to fight insurgents in Afghanistan.
Obama has also urged the Europeans to lift restrictions some NATO members have put on their troops on the ground.
The Democratic candidate has pledged to close the detention center for captured Islamist militants at Guantanamo Bay, one of the main causes for Bush's unpopularity in Europe.
However, there is no real difference with McCain who has also promised to close this prison where 272 prisoners have been held for years without being formally accused of a crime.
Critics say the prison violates historic principles of US justice.
For Justin Vaisse, a Brookings Institution expert who was commenting on the future relations with Europe, "there is a risk of unmet expectations but goodwill should generate more positive responses."
However, Vaisse said, a change in style can have "very important" ramifications for relations with allies, just as Nicolas Sarkozy's election as France's president has improved French-US ties without changing much underneath.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081028/pl_afp/usvotediplomacy
