FOX News Poll: Obama's Edge Over McCain Narrows

[Dos Equis]

Tightening up. 

FOX News Poll: Obama's Edge Over McCain Narrows
The race for the White House has tightened significantly -- with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by three percentage points -- according to a FOX News poll released Thursday.   
Dana Blanton

FOXNews.com

Thursday, October 30, 2008

As the candidates make their closing arguments before the election, the race has tightened with Barack Obama now leading John McCain by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Thursday. Last week Obama led by 49-40 percent among likely voters.

Obama has a bit more strength of support going into the final week. Among his backers, 88 percent say they support him "strongly" and 12 percent "only somewhat." For McCain, 78 percent of his voters support him "strongly" and 22 percent "only somewhat."

In addition, 66 percent of Obama's supporters say it is "extremely important" to them that their candidate wins compared to 59 percent of McCain supporters.

The race has tightened in part because of changes in a couple of important swing voting groups. Independents back Obama by 5 percentage points today, down from a 9-point edge last week. Similarly, among white Catholics, Obama held an 11-point edge over McCain last week and today they split 46-46.

"Independent voters have long been regarded as one of the keys to this race and these results may foreshadow a tightening in the battleground states where independents carry disproportionate weight," says Ernie Paicopolos, a principal of Opinion Dynamics Corporation.

Another reason the numbers have tightened is that McCain has also improved his position among his party faithful, and the number of voters identifying themselves as Republicans has seen an up-tick as well. Fully 88 percent of Republicans back McCain, up from 83 percent last week. For Obama, 89 percent of Democrats support him, up slightly from 88 percent.

New voters, those 11 percent who have registered in the last two years, support Obama by 54-38 percent.

Obama also has a 52-43 percent edge over McCain among the more than one of five voters who say they have taken advantage of early voting in their state and already voted.

Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 likely voters for FOX News from October 28 to October 29. The poll has a 3-point error margin. "Likely voters" are registered voters who are considered more likely to vote in the November presidential election.

. . .
 
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/30/fox-news-poll-obamas-edge-mccain-narrows/

[Colossus_500]

50% is the magic number for a guaranteed win, right?

[Busted]

I was watching this today while doing cardio...

FOX news and RASMUSSEN have him with in the "margin of error" but they only poll "likely to vote voters" which are people who voted the past 2 elections. 

Every other poll has him way ahead, except the right wing network... go figure

[a_joker10]

I was watching this today while doing cardio...

FOX news and RASMUSSEN have him with in the "margin of error" but they only poll "likely to vote voters" which are people who voted the past 2 elections. 

Every other poll has him way ahead, except the right wing network... go figure

From Real Clear, averaging all of the listed polls ending on the 29th Obama is at 5.3.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[Dos Equis]

50% is the magic number for a guaranteed win, right?

Not really.  It depends on the electoral college.  These poll numbers just give us an indication of how the state votes may play out.  The state-by-state polling is probably a better indicator of the outcome. 

[240 is Back]

gore had more votes than Bush.  didn't help him.

[Dos Equis]

Poll update: Voters having 'buyer's remorse'?
Posted: 07:48 PM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

(CNN) – With five days until Election Day, there are signs the presidential race may be tightening, according to a new CNN poll of polls.

According to an average of several recent surveys, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain is down to 5 points nationwide, 49-44 percent — a gap that is 3 points less than it was earlier this week, and nearly half what the margin was one week ago.

Election Center: Check out the latest state polls

The closing of polls late in a presidential race is not unusual: Sen. John Kerry lost his 2004 White House bid despite holding a slim lead over President Bush in its final days and then-Vice President Al Gore trailed Bush by 5 points in early November before the two essentially split the vote days later.

“It’s possible that McCain will continue to close the gap over the final few days of the campaign,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Presidential elections often tighten up at the end, especially if there’s not an incumbent on the ballot. Voters sometimes experience a degree of ‘buyer’s remorse’ before settling on a new president."

Historically, however, only one presidential candidate in modern history has come back from the deficit McCain faces to win an election — Ronad Reagan in 1980.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

[MattT]

Poll update: Voters having 'buyer's remorse'?
Posted: 07:48 PM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

(CNN) – With five days until Election Day, there are signs the presidential race may be tightening, according to a new CNN poll of polls.

According to an average of several recent surveys, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain is down to 5 points nationwide, 49-44 percent — a gap that is 3 points less than it was earlier this week, and nearly half what the margin was one week ago.

Election Center: Check out the latest state polls

The closing of polls late in a presidential race is not unusual: Sen. John Kerry lost his 2004 White House bid despite holding a slim lead over President Bush in its final days and then-Vice President Al Gore trailed Bush by 5 points in early November before the two essentially split the vote days later.

“It’s possible that McCain will continue to close the gap over the final few days of the campaign,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Presidential elections often tighten up at the end, especially if there’s not an incumbent on the ballot. Voters sometimes experience a degree of ‘buyer’s remorse’ before settling on a new president."

Historically, however, only one presidential candidate in modern history has come back from the deficit McCain faces to win an election — Ronad Reagan in 1980.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

nope its back up to a 7 point lead as of Oct 31st  holla!