Virginia=Win; North Carolina=Landslide

[Benny B]

 

by Cenk Uygur

Here is a handy dandy guide to watching election night. The East Coast states will report first. If John McCain is going to win, then he will win Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. And then it will take the rest of the night to figure out if he still has enough electoral votes. Obama's victory could be a lot easier to figure out.

If Obama wins Virginia - it's over. That simple. He is comfortably ahead in all of the blue states that John Kerry won in 2004. He is very likely to win all of those. He is also comfortably ahead in Iowa and New Mexico. So, that means all he has to do to get an electoral majority is win Virginia, or Ohio, or Florida, or Colorado. Any of them will do. If McCain wins three out of the four, he still loses.

So, unless something gargantuanly unexpected happens, if they call Virginia for Obama, you will know at that moment that he is the next President of the United States.

Notice North Carolina is not on the list of states that Obama needs. That's because if he wins North Carolina, then he probably won all of those other states anyway and he has blown John McCain out of the water. So, if they call North Carolina for Obama, that's the moment you know that we have a landslide on our hands.

Now, none of this is bound to happen. The polls are just polls, they are not actual votes. That's why they play the games on Sunday (and in this case, do the voting on Tuesday). But this is just a quick guide to watching the game. Virginia equals Obama win. North Carolina equals Obama landslide.

[Busted]

by Cenk Uygur

Here is a handy dandy guide to watching election night. The East Coast states will report first. If John McCain is going to win, then he will win Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. And then it will take the rest of the night to figure out if he still has enough electoral votes. Obama's victory could be a lot easier to figure out.

If Obama wins Virginia - it's over. That simple. He is comfortably ahead in all of the blue states that John Kerry won in 2004. He is very likely to win all of those. He is also comfortably ahead in Iowa and New Mexico. So, that means all he has to do to get an electoral majority is win Virginia, or Ohio, or Florida, or Colorado. Any of them will do. If McCain wins three out of the four, he still loses.

So, unless something gargantuanly unexpected happens, if they call Virginia for Obama, you will know at that moment that he is the next President of the United States.

Notice North Carolina is not on the list of states that Obama needs. That's because if he wins North Carolina, then he probably won all of those other states anyway and he has blown John McCain out of the water. So, if they call North Carolina for Obama, that's the moment you know that we have a landslide on our hands.

Now, none of this is bound to happen. The polls are just polls, they are not actual votes. That's why they play the games on Sunday (and in this case, do the voting on Tuesday). But this is just a quick guide to watching the game. Virginia equals Obama win. North Carolina equals Obama landslide.

If Obama wins, FL, PA, VA, OH, NC, MO or IN its OVER.

[CQ]

When will we know this? Timewise?

Excuse the dumb question.

[Benny B]

When will we know this? Timewise?

Excuse the dumb question.

To my understanding, polls close in VA at 7pm, EST. News stations will not call a state prior to the polls closing in that state, for fear of influencing the outcome. Of course, if it is very close there they may not be ready to call in for either candidate right away.

If Obama wins, FL, PA, VA, OH, NC, MO or IN its OVER.

Obama does not need to win all of those states for you to make a pretty strong educated guess that he is going to on election day, bro. Kerry did not win FL, VA, OH, MO, or IN. The point of the article is that if he carries VA with its 13 electoral votes, it puts him over the top because he is comfortably ahead in the states Kerry won in '04. And VA is one of the earliest states to close its polls.


Edit: I should clarify, if Obama does not have to win ANY of the states mentioned by Busted, except PA. That was a Kerry state, and has gone Dem since '88. If he wins VA, being ahead in Iowa and NM, you could go to bed early feeling confident Obama won the election.

[CQ]

Thanks.

[Busted]

To my understanding, polls close in VA at 7pm, EST. News stations will not call a state prior to the polls closing in that state, for fear of influencing the outcome. Of course, if it is very close there they may not be ready to call in for either candidate right away.
Obama does not need to win all of those states for you to make a pretty strong educated guess that he is going to on election day, bro. Kerry did not win FL, VA, OH, MO, or IN. The point of the article is that if he carries VA with its 13 electoral votes, it puts him over the top because he is comfortably ahead in the states Kerry won in '04. And VA is one of the earliest states to close its polls.

I understand what ytou were saying... If he looses VA, but wins, NC, or FL, or OH, or MO, or CO, or IN he still wins... he just needs 1 state over 10 electoral votes to win...