Obama may have just won Colorado--- this may be historic

[240 is Back]

Barack Obama's already just about won the race for President in Colorado.

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

Let's look at this another way. We interviewed 2,023 people. 1306 had already voted, and 761 of them voted for Obama. That means out of the remaining folks Obama would only need 251 out of their 717 votes, or 35%. Since 47% say they intend to vote for Obama it seems like a safe bet that he'll get there."


More: These number are accurate in that the state admits 1.3 million people have already voted.

In 2004, a total of 2.1 million people voted for President in Colorado.


if Obama won Colorado, a state worth 9 electoral votes - that Bush won in 2004 - Then Mccain will have to sweep FL, OH, MICH, PENN, NC, VA, MO... just to keep it close.

Guys, it's 2 AM, Friday morning.  Obama may have just won the Presidential election

[garebear]

So, you don't think the November 4th voting will have an impact then?

[240 is Back]

So, you don't think the November 4th voting will have an impact then?

Almost 2/3 of Colorado voters have already voted early.

If Obama is leading 58-41, it means that starting tomorrow.... mccain would need 68% of all remaining votes to win.

I don't see that happening.

[MattT]

Barack Obama's already just about won the race for President in Colorado.

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

Let's look at this another way. We interviewed 2,023 people. 1306 had already voted, and 761 of them voted for Obama. That means out of the remaining folks Obama would only need 251 out of their 717 votes, or 35%. Since 47% say they intend to vote for Obama it seems like a safe bet that he'll get there."


More: These number are accurate in that the state admits 1.3 million people have already voted.

In 2004, a total of 2.1 million people voted for President in Colorado.


if Obama won Colorado, a state worth 9 electoral votes - that Bush won in 2004 - Then Mccain will have to sweep FL, OH, MICH, PENN, NC, VA, MO... just to keep it close.

Guys, it's 2 AM, Friday morning.  Obama may have just won the Presidential election

 

[Nordic Superman]

Almost 2/3 of Colorado voters have already voted early.

If Obama is leading 58-41, it means that starting tomorrow.... mccain would need 68% of all remaining votes to win.

I don't see that happening.

Sorry, what do you know about statistical mathematics?

What is the population of Colorado? What % is the sample size? Did the questioning take place randomly both demographically and by location, or was it in the city centre where the target population might be skewed?

Not saying 2/3 haven't voted already, the sample might actually represent the total population, but let's not make stupid assumptions based on statistics of such a small sample size.

[tu_holmes]

Again, I think the problem with polls is that they don't poll young people accurately.

When you're polling land lines only, you will DRASTICALLY under poll the young vote as younger people do NOT have land lines.

I know I don't and I'm 33... how many 20-somethings are just like me?

[danielson]

Almost 2/3 of Colorado voters have already voted early.

Do you even read what you copy and paste? It says 65% of the people they surveyed had voted. It does not say that 2/3 of Colorado had voted early.

[leland000]

Barack Obama's already just about won the race for President in Colorado.

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

Let's look at this another way. We interviewed 2,023 people. 1306 had already voted, and 761 of them voted for Obama. That means out of the remaining folks Obama would only need 251 out of their 717 votes, or 35%. Since 47% say they intend to vote for Obama it seems like a safe bet that he'll get there."


More: These number are accurate in that the state admits 1.3 million people have already voted.

In 2004, a total of 2.1 million people voted for President in Colorado.


if Obama won Colorado, a state worth 9 electoral votes - that Bush won in 2004 - Then Mccain will have to sweep FL, OH, MICH, PENN, NC, VA, MO... just to keep it close.

Guys, it's 2 AM, Friday morning.  Obama may have just won the Presidential election

Shit man....total brilliance

Colorado Population - 4.9 Million
Colorado Registered Voters - 3.2 Million

So far, 1.4 million of Colorado’s 3.2 million registered voters have requested mail-in ballots; voters can request them until Oct. 28.

[240 is Back]

Do you even read what you copy and paste? It says 65% of the people they surveyed had voted. It does not say that 2/3 of Colorado had voted early.

Colorado only had 3.2 registered voters - let's assume 100% of them voted, even tho only 2/3 voted last time.

1/2 of the early ballots are back already.

Do you even read what you copy and paste? It says 65% of the people they surveyed had voted. It does not say that 2/3 of Colorado had voted early.

No - in a random sampling of 2023 people, 2/3 of them had voted, in either early voting or absentee ballots.

2023 in a population of 3.2 million potential is MORE than enough for an accurate reading - remember that most major polls use a sample size of 1,010 to cover 301 million americans, and they're accurate to 3-4% margin of error.  this is a much larger sampling % - double the people surveyed, in 1/100 the total population.

Not saying 2/3 haven't voted already, the sample might actually represent the total population, but let's not make stupid assumptions based on statistics of such a small sample size.

So you're saying when Zogby/Gallup/Pew/Ramussen survey 1010 our of 305 million, that's plenty...
But when Colorado surveys 2000 out of 3.2 million... that's NOT?
Sorry, the sample size is more than adequate.

[leland000]

1/2 of the early ballots are back already.

False...........
Nearly 15 percent of Colorado's 3.2 million registered voters have already cast ballots for the Nov. 4 election by mail or at early-voting polling places.

The Colorado secretary of state's office says nearly 340,000 mail-in ballots had arrived at county clerks' offices and nearly 42,000 people have cast ballots at early voting polling places.

About 60 percent of voters have requested mail-in ballots this year.

Do you know the difference between the words request and cast?

[240 is Back]

False...........
Nearly 15 percent of Colorado's 3.2 million registered voters have already cast ballots for the Nov. 4 election by mail or at early-voting polling places.

The Colorado secretary of state's office says nearly 340,000 mail-in ballots had arrived at county clerks' offices and nearly 42,000 people have cast ballots at early voting polling places.

About 60 percent of voters have requested mail-in ballots this year.

Do you know the difference between the words request and cast?

Colorado's governor was on CNN last night.  He said 50% of the requested absentee ballots have already been sent back, and that he expected a large % to arrive this weekend or be hand-delivered on election day.

[leland000]

Colorado's governor was on CNN last night.  He said 50% of the requested absentee ballots have already been sent back, and that he expected a large % to arrive this weekend or be hand-delivered on election day.

How many have been tallied?
Do you know what day the election is?

You should hold off on "historic proclomations".....your way ahead of yourself.

[240 is Back]

How many have been tallied?
Do you know what day the election is?

You should hold off on "historic proclomations".....your way ahead of yourself.

I agree, I'm jumping the gun.  These margins were shocking to me though.
Statistically, odds are stacked a mile high against him now.

mcCain really does need a miracle on nov 4th to win it in Colorado.

[leland000]

He's going to get a big jump on election day all across the board. There are tons of voters who aren't the rah-rah overly enthusiastic vocal types, who don't participate in polls, or early voting....they will let their votes talk on the 4th. Couple that with the large number of undecided voters out there....anything is possible.

Without a doubt he has his work cut out for him with the electoral map and has basically zero wiggle room.

[Busted]

Again, I think the problem with polls is that they don't poll young people accurately.

When you're polling land lines only, you will DRASTICALLY under poll the young vote as younger people do NOT have land lines.

I know I don't and I'm 33... how many 20-somethings are just like me?

I hve not had a land line at home since, 2000.

[Dos Equis]

How many have been tallied?
Do you know what day the election is?

You should hold off on "historic proclomations".....your way ahead of yourself.

lol.  Cancel Christmas.

Just a tad early to be calling the election one way or the other. 

[MCWAY]

Again, I think the problem with polls is that they don't poll young people accurately.

When you're polling land lines only, you will DRASTICALLY under poll the young vote as younger people do NOT have land lines.

I know I don't and I'm 33... how many 20-somethings are just like me?

That really isn't saying much, given that, historically, the younger people DON'T SHOW UP during election day. Every election year, we hear this push for bringing out younger voters (18-to-29 crowd), but time and time again, they're MIA, when it's all on the line.

[tu_holmes]

That really isn't saying much, given that, historically, the younger people DON'T SHOW UP during election day. Every election year, we hear this push for bringing out younger voters (18-to-29 crowd), but time and time again, they're MIA, when it's all on the line.

They showed up for Bill Clinton in 92 though.