fivethirtyeight

[MattT]

This is all you need to know these guys are in the biz of preditcting elections

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.

I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.

[bigdumbbell]

this is an excellent web link, thank you matt t.