From what I can tell, nearly all analysis of the third Jackson-Silva fight has focused on intangibles. What is going on with Jackson's trial? How has the move overseas affected him? Is Silva in his head?
All of these things matter, but this is still a fight, not a therapy session. It's going to be primarily determined by the way their styles collide, and because Jackson's style has changed so dramatically since their first two fights, I don't think those fights are a reliable indicator of what is going to happen this time. It's been well over four years since their second fight, and things have changed. A lot.
Wanderlei Silva is no longer the invincible monster that went 17 fights without a loss before his High Octane fight with Jackson, and I don't think fighting Jackson again is going to bring that man back. In 2003 and 2004, Jackson was scared to stand and trade with Wanderlei Silva. His striking was powerful but basic, and he wanted to get Silva down. I do not believe that will be his strategy this time. His game has evolved to the point where he relies almost exclusively on his boxing superiority and punching power; I'd be shocked if we see him shooting for takedowns unless he gets badly hurt.
If Jackson can keep Silva in check and turn it into a boxing match, he will tear Silva apart. Jackson's boxing in 2008 is a lot cleaner than Silva's; he has more powerful punches, a much better left hand, far superior head movement, and the ability to put together advanced combinations that Silva doesn't even attempt. If Silva can turn it into a reckless brawl, then the advantage is his, but even then it is still essentially a tossup.
Wanderlei Silva has history and the intangibles on his side, but Jackson has the stylistic advantage. In 2008, I do not believe that in a fight where both men will likely stand in front of each other and trade until the other goes down that Wanderlei Silva will survive longer than Rampage Jackson. I am picking Rampage Jackson via KO, round 2.
