In assembling a list of the five most-lucrative fights to be made in 2009, one bout is set, another is a long shot, and the other three have the potential to help make it another electrifying year in mixed martial arts.
1. Georges St. Pierre vs. B.J. Penn
Fans won't have to wait long for the year's first blockbuster; a champion vs. champion affair between Penn and St. Pierre is set for UFC 94 on Jan. 31. Neither Penn, the reigning king at 155 pounds, nor the welterweight champ St. Pierre has been primary a driver of big pay-per-view numbers, but circumstances surrounding this bout should rewrite that bit of history.
St. Pierre has been the more bankable of the two champions. His past three fights have been part of cards that have generated more than 500,000 PPV buys each, but in two instances, other fights fueled the majority of the interest in the event. St. Pierre's UFC 79 fight against Matt Hughes was part of the lineup that included the highly anticipated meeting between Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva. The show did an estimated 600,000 buys, as did UFC 87, which featured GSP against Jon Fitch and benefited greatly from Brock Lesnar's appearance against Heath Herring. St. Pierre's rematch with Matt Serra carried UFC 83, which netted about 525,000 buys.
Despite Penn's status as one of the sport's best pound-for-pound fighters, he has yet to fight on a show that has cracked the half-million buy mark. His best PPV showing was UFC 84 with an estimated 475,000.
The champion against champion scenario, plus the added allure of the fight being a rematch of a UFC 58 bout that many thought could have gone either way, should produce significant interest in the fight. The overall UFC 94 card lacks mainstream names, but an intriguing light heavyweight battle between Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva, and a potentially great lightweight bout with Nate Diaz and Clay Guida, should ensure hardcore order up and make UFC 94 one of year's best sellers.
2. Brock Lesnar vs. Fedor Emelianenko
In three appearances in the UFC, heavyweight champion Lesnar is already money for UFC's PPV machine, and his next fight against interim titleholder Frank Mir will continue the string. However, pitting Lesnar, with or without a belt around his waist, against Emelianenko would result in the super fight of the year.
A year ago, this fight was a mismatch. Not anymore. Lesnar's sterling performance against Randy Couture at UFC 91 has most MMA experts – and many fans – drinking the Lesnar Kool-Aid and, in just four fights, he's already viewed as one of the best heavyweights in MMA. Lesnar's physical tools, toughness and intelligence in the cage against the seemingly indestructible Emelianenko, who hasn't lost in more than eight years, would make for a very compelling fight. Emelianenko isn't a brand in the U.S. like Couture or Chuck Liddell, and he hasn't proved his worth as a PPV draw. However, Lesnar's appeal virtually guarantees the fight would produce more than 700,000 buys.
Making it happen is an altogether other matter. When asked about the potential of the fight during a recent AOL FanHouse online chat, UFC President Dana White indicated that he wants the bout. However, the UFC and the former PRIDE champion's representatives have butted heads before in contract negotiations, and nothing suggests demands on either side have changed materially to get a deal done in 2009.
3. Randy Couture vs. Chuck Liddell IV
A fourth fight between the two legends would be one of the biggest of the year. No titles, no jockeying for top-contender status – just two of the most marketable, most beloved fighters in the sport going at it one more time.
His loss to Lesnar notwithstanding, Couture's resurgence in 2007 suggests that this would be a competitive fight, unlike the past two meetings dominated by Liddell. In fact, it's plausible that Couture would even be favored in the fight.
The bout was rumored to be in the works for UFC's German debut in June. Couture dispelled that rumor in a recent story on MMAjunkie.com (
www.mmajunkie.com), but he says he's open to fighting again at 205 pounds if the fight makes sense to the fans. And, a fight against Liddell does.
Liddell-Couture III produced approximately 400,000 buys. A fourth version of the bout would easily surpass that number.
4. Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin
The UFC is still waiting to cash in on middleweight champion Anderson Silva. The Brazilian is the most lethal striker in the game with unquestioned all-around skills and the potential to be a two-division titleholder. However, none of that has translated into a major PPV payoff. Silva typically draws around 300,000 buys, well below the buy rate of other UFC champions. However, Silva has never been matched up against an opponent such as Griffin.
Griffin's status as a fan favorite would help land Silva in a fight that would produce more than 500,000 buys. Granted, the stature of the fight would have received a boost from Griffin still carrying the light heavyweight belt, but even without the title on the line, the fight is captivating.
Griffin is the type of fighter who performs best when faced with an against-the-odds challenge. See his bouts against Quinton Jackson, Mauricio Rua and Tito Ortiz for proof. And, he sells well. His UFC 86 fight against Jackson was one of the top fights of 2008, generating 540,000 buys.
5. Frank Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz
The UFC doesn't have the market on mega-fights completely cornered. A match-up between ultimate self-promoters Shamrock and Ortiz is probably the biggest fight to be made outside of the Zuffa landscape.
Shamrock sports the recognizable brand name, which received a boost in exposure this year among fans new to MMA from Shamrock being part of the CBS announcing crew for EliteXC. He knows how to hype a fight, as does Ortiz, who still has marketability, despite being winless over the past two years.
Both men want the bout, but exactly how the promotion for it comes together is the question. A joint promotion between Strikeforce/Shamrock and Affliction/Ortiz, hypothetically, would ensure the fight would be big on the West Coast and get plenty of national exposure. Bolstered by a solid supporting cast of fights, Shamrock versus Ortiz could top 250,000 buys. That's underwhelming by UFC measures, but it would set a new PPV standard for the other promotion(s) involved.
