Author Topic: Housing Market (Read 1228 times)

LurkerNoMore · « **on:** January 22, 2009, 10:59:34 AM »

On a completely non-political non-party non-issue viewpoint... what do you think is going to happen in the housing market six months from now? The bottom falls further or some stability and upward climb?

OzmO · « **Reply #1 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:01:11 AM »

Quote from: LurkerNoMore on January 22, 2009, 10:59:34 AM

On a completely non-political non-party non-issue viewpoint... what do you think is going to happen in the housing market six months from now? The bottom falls further or some stability and upward climb?

It will be like it was in '92, it will take 6-7 years to get going again.

Hereford · « **Reply #2 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:02:03 AM »

Except in California.

Straw Man · « **Reply #3 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:07:04 AM »

Quote from: LurkerNoMore on January 22, 2009, 10:59:34 AM

On a completely non-political non-party non-issue viewpoint... what do you think is going to happen in the housing market six months from now? The bottom falls further or some stability and upward climb?

I think it really depends on how quickly we can get back to some semblence of a functioning credit market.

When that will happen is anyone's guess

OzmO · « **Reply #4 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:07:56 AM »

Quote from: Hereford on January 22, 2009, 11:02:03 AM

Except in California.

I hope you are not right.

Straw Man · « **Reply #5 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:12:17 AM »

Quote from: OzmO on January 22, 2009, 11:07:56 AM

I hope you are not right.

certain parts of CA are just fine.

other areas are softening but still ok

other areas are complete blood baths

Saxon · « **Reply #6 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:31:42 AM »

Quote from: Straw Man on January 22, 2009, 11:07:04 AM

I think it really depends on how quickly we can get back to some semblence of a functioning credit market.

When that will happen is anyone's guess

There is some evidence that credit markets are starting to thaw, for example the last time I looked at the TED spread (difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and T-bills) it was nearly back to pre-October levels (certainly a good sign). Whether people (despite the low interest rate) are going to be willing to take out a mortgage is a totally different question.

Straw Man · « **Reply #7 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:39:14 AM »

Quote from: Saxon on January 22, 2009, 11:31:42 AM

There is some evidence that credit markets are starting to thaw, for example the last time I looked at the TED spread (difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and T-bills) it was nearly back to pre-October levels (certainly a good sign). Whether people (despite the low interest rate) are going to be willing to take out a mortgage is a totally different question.

I think the demand is there from borrowers but the lenders have restricted their credit guidelines, ltv's, etc...

there are still very few options for borrowers who need non-conforming loans

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #8 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:45:03 AM »

Quote from: LurkerNoMore on January 22, 2009, 10:59:34 AM

On a completely non-political non-party non-issue viewpoint... what do you think is going to happen in the housing market six months from now? The bottom falls further or some stability and upward climb?

At least another 10 - 20% to go. At a minimum.

Between the foreclosures, the inventories, the joblessness, and the refusal of banks to mark down the assets to market value, housing procies will still drop because people cannot afford the homes at the current prices.

It is not going to change for a long time until the employment situation changes.

240 is Back · « **Reply #9 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:56:43 AM »

slight rebound as prices are low. someone on cnn yesterday specifically cited west coast of Fl as a place to buy a house for 1/3 it's previous value, consistently. Sales are up.

HOWEVER

If you own a home, and 5 of the neighors on your street are foreclosed, guess what happens? Those homes get bought by the bank. They maybe they end up on auction, where slumlord investors get them cheap and rent them cheap, so you get some scumbag renters down the street. Then your property value goes down, and your kids aren't safe because they're selling dope at the new flophouse next door to you. Or, the govt section-8's them, and you end up with welfare cases living in a 250k home next door for 27 bucks per month.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #10 on:** January 22, 2009, 11:57:46 AM »

Home prices are still way too high.

Ask yourself:

Can an average salary afford an average house?

LurkerNoMore · « **Reply #11 on:** January 22, 2009, 12:20:19 PM »

It appears that 50% of the people that could afford to get a house financed at this point, simply can't because of credit problems. (The other 50% are the ones that would just purchase outright)

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #12 on:** January 22, 2009, 12:22:14 PM »

Quote from: LurkerNoMore on January 22, 2009, 12:20:19 PM

It appears that 50% of the people that could afford to get a house financed at this point, simply can't because of credit problems. (The other 50% are the ones that would just purchase outright)

Where I live, the houses are still grossly overpriced, yet the realtors and mortgage brokers still tell me things are great. What a joke those clowns are.

OzmO · « **Reply #13 on:** January 22, 2009, 03:45:16 PM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 22, 2009, 12:22:14 PM

Where I live, the houses are still grossly overpriced, yet the realtors and mortgage brokers still tell me things are great. What a joke those clowns are.

Its a form of self brain washing commonly mistaken as a "positive mental attitude"

gordiano · « **Reply #14 on:** January 23, 2009, 01:53:21 AM »

Quote from: OzmO on January 22, 2009, 03:45:16 PM

Its a form of self brain washing commonly mistaken as a "positive mental attitude"

MuscleMcMannus · « **Reply #15 on:** January 23, 2009, 02:04:15 AM »

Anyone who thinks the housing market is going to recover anytime soon has their fucking head buried in the sand. The economy hasn't reached rock bottom yet. 2009 is going to be worse than 2008. 2010 won't be as bad. etc. etc. Housing will never be the same after this debacle.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #16 on:** January 23, 2009, 04:41:18 AM »

Quote from: MuscleMcMannus on January 23, 2009, 02:04:15 AM

Anyone who thinks the housing market is going to recover anytime soon has their fucking head buried in the sand. The economy hasn't reached rock bottom yet. 2009 is going to be worse than 2008. 2010 won't be as bad. etc. etc. Housing will never be the same after this debacle.

Agreed. The housing market is not coming back for years and years. There is absolutely no reason for it. Interest rates are not going to do a damn thing when one conisders the increasing property taxes, rising unemployment, etc etc.

Additionally, more and more people are downscaling their lifestyle by moving in together.

MuscleMcMannus · « **Reply #17 on:** January 23, 2009, 03:54:54 PM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 23, 2009, 04:41:18 AM

Agreed. The housing market is not coming back for years and years. There is absolutely no reason for it. Interest rates are not going to do a damn thing when one conisders the increasing property taxes, rising unemployment, etc etc.

Additionally, more and more people are downscaling their lifestyle by moving in together.

All these talking heads and others who want or think the market will go back up are idiots. They haven't learned anything from this crisis. Oh ok.....let's go back to the way things were a few yearsa go and experience the same thing in 10 years. LOL.

danielson · « **Reply #18 on:** January 23, 2009, 04:23:16 PM »

Quote from: 240 is Back on January 22, 2009, 11:56:43 AM

slight rebound as prices are low. someone on cnn yesterday specifically cited west coast of Fl as a place to buy a house for 1/3 it's previous value, consistently. Sales are up.

HOWEVER

If you own a home, and 5 of the neighors on your street are foreclosed, guess what happens? Those homes get bought by the bank. They maybe they end up on auction, where slumlord investors get them cheap and rent them cheap, so you get some scumbag renters down the street. Then your property value goes down, and your kids aren't safe because they're selling dope at the new flophouse next door to you. Or, the govt section-8's them, and you end up with welfare cases living in a 250k home next door for 27 bucks per month.

You are right and wrong 240. If the banks sell the foreclosed homes at a highly discounted price, your value drops immediately, doesn't matter who buys them and what they do with them. Values by and large are based on comps, meaning what have similar houses in the area sold for. Not saying renters help the value by any means, but by then the damage is already done.

Bindare_Dundat · « **Reply #19 on:** January 23, 2009, 04:29:13 PM »

Quote from: MuscleMcMannus on January 23, 2009, 03:54:54 PM

All these talking heads and others who want or think the market will go back up are idiots. They haven't learned anything from this crisis. Oh ok.....let's go back to the way things were a few yearsa go and experience the same thing in 10 years. LOL.

Bingo. That's what some people are pushing for. sheesh