Pulling out of Iraq

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War Planning

Iraq will test whether the pragmatic will trump the political in President Obama's administration.
Friday, January 23, 2009; A14

THE WELCOME tone of pragmatism that President Obama conveyed during his transition and in his inaugural address seemed to carry over, during his first day in office, to one of the issues for which he will most need it: Iraq. Fulfilling an oft-stated campaign promise, the new president met with his defense secretary and senior military commanders and, according to a statement he issued, asked for "additional planning necessary to execute a responsible military drawdown from Iraq."

Accounts of the meeting suggested that Mr. Obama spent much of the time listening to reports from those who know Iraq best -- Gens. David H. Petraeus and Ray Odierno and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker. In addition, the president's statement did not cite the 16-month withdrawal timetable that became one of the signal slogans of his campaign -- though his spokesman mentioned it. We hope that's evidence that Mr. Obama will not repeat one of President Bush's greatest mistakes -- allowing ideological and political considerations to trump good military judgment.

There is broad agreement in Washington and Baghdad that U.S. troops should gradually be withdrawn, consistent with the goal of preserving Iraq's fragile and relative peace. Late last year, the outgoing administration concluded a formal agreement with the Iraqi government, laying out a plan for redeploying and withdrawing U.S. troops over the next three years. Both Iraqi leaders and U.S. commanders have made clear that they do not believe a pullout of all combat forces in 16 months is compatible with that strategy, and some U.S. officers have questioned whether, in purely logistical terms, it could be safely accomplished.

Gen. Odierno, who commands U.S. forces in Iraq, reportedly favors only a modest drawdown of troops this year, when Iraq will be staging two crucial elections and trying to resolve still-volatile questions of how to divide territory and power among regions and sectarian groups. The prospect of American forces leaving at the rate of a brigade a month, as required by a 16-month timetable, is regarded by leading Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish politicians as a potential catastrophe -- though their public statements sometimes suggest otherwise.

Wednesday's briefing should have underlined those facts for Mr. Obama, if he did not know them already. The president can certainly be expected to press for the quickest U.S. withdrawal that logistics and conditions in Iraq will allow. But Iraq's continuing improvement and the low and declining rate of U.S. casualties -- four soldiers have been killed in hostile action so far this month -- ought to decrease the urgency of a quick pullout. Pragmatism calls for working within the agreed U.S.-Iraqi plan, and for allowing adjustments based on positive and negative developments in Iraq, rather than on any fixed and arbitrary timetable.
Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE

[headhuntersix]

US envoy in Iraq warns against hasty withdrawal

BAGHDAD (AP) -- A hasty departure of U.S. troops from Iraq would carry severe risks, including bolstering al-Qaida and threatening Iraqi progress toward a functioning society, the outgoing U.S. ambassador said Thursday.

Ambassador Ryan Crocker spoke to reporters a day after he and the top U.S. commander in Iraq briefed President Barack Obama on the situation here.

Obama, who campaigned on a promise to end the war, asked the Pentagon to do whatever additional planning was necessary to "execute a responsible military drawdown from Iraq," the White House said Wednesday.

Crocker, who is retiring after a 30-year diplomatic career, declined to say what he and Gen. Ray Odierno told the president during the video hookup. But he noted that the president was committed to a responsible pullout of the more than 140,000-strong U.S. force.

"A precipitous withdrawal runs some very severe risks," Crocker said, including a possible revival of al-Qaida and encouraging "neighbors with less than benign intentions" to influence events in Iraq.

He said that al-Qaida had been "much weakened" due to setbacks on the battlefield and a loss of support within the Sunni Arab community.

"But as long as they can cling to some handhold here, they are going to keep trying to literally fight their way back," Crocker said.

"And perhaps most important it would have a chilling effect on Iraqis,"
he said of a quick U.S. departure. "I think the spirit of compromise, of accommodation, of focus on institutional development - all of that would run the risk of getting set aside."

Iraqi officials have said they hope the new administration will stick by the timeline set down in the U.S.-Iraq security agreement which went into effect this month. The deal provides for U.S. combat troops to leave the cities by the end of June, with all U.S. troops gone from the country by 2012.

The chairman of the parliamentary defense committee, Abbas al-Bayati, said Wednesday that Iraq has drawn up contingency plans in case Obama orders a speeded-up withdrawal.

Obama called during the campaign for a pullout of all U.S. combat troops from within 16 months of taking office.

Although Crocker spoke of the risks of a "precipitous withdrawal," he said "it's clear that's not the direction in which this is trending."

U.S. officials are closely watching a series of elections this year as an indicator whether Iraq has turned the corner and is on the way to lasting stability.

Voters in most of the country will choose ruling provincial councils Jan. 31, with parliamentary balloting expected by the end of the year.

Provincial balloting will not be held in the three Kurdish self-ruled provinces until the regional legislature approves an election law.
Voting was postponed indefinitely in the province around Kirkuk because the area's ethnic groups could not agree on a power-sharing formula.

"The conduct and outcome of those elections will be very important for the country, in particular that they be and be perceived as free and fair - in at least a general sense," Crocker said. "They aren't going to be perfect elections. We all know that. But it is important that they be credible elections."