Author Topic: May job numbers are out----  (Read 4264 times)

240 is Back

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May job numbers are out----
« on: June 05, 2009, 05:38:21 AM »
Smallest decrease in jobs since Sept 2007 (before the crisis)

Only 345,000 total lost in May

520,000 was the expectation on Obama's slope.

Remember, Obama said it would be the end of 2009 before we stopped the downward trend and reversed into monthly positive growth.  Looks like this may be arriving early.

However, 9.4% if the home survey unemployment rate.  We have to decide whether we put more credence in the household survey, or the employers survey. 

Stormspirit

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2009, 05:57:47 AM »
Smallest decrease in jobs since Sept 2007 (before the crisis)

Only 345,000 total lost in May

520,000 was the expectation on Obama's slope.

Remember, Obama said it would be the end of 2009 before we stopped the downward trend and reversed into monthly positive growth.  Looks like this may be arriving early.

However, 9.4% if the home survey unemployment rate.  We have to decide whether we put more credence in the household survey, or the employers survey. 
I have a very hard time believing that, post up some stats.

Soul Crusher

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2009, 06:12:51 AM »
I have a very hard time believing that, post up some stats.

Every month last months' numbers get revised upwards.  This is more nonsense as the chrysler and GM layoffs have not hit. 

Stormspirit

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2009, 06:17:47 AM »
Every month last months' numbers get revised upwards.  This is more nonsense as the chrysler and GM layoffs have not hit. 
I don't think we were losing so many jobs from sept 2007, it didn't really start till 08. the more jobs we lose, the less consumers we have, and more jobs lost as a result. this is really bad because we have a hollow service economy.
240, what do you think will be the engine of new growth?

Soul Crusher

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2009, 06:28:14 AM »
I don't think we were losing so many jobs from sept 2007, it didn't really start till 08. the more jobs we lose, the less consumers we have, and more jobs lost as a result. this is really bad because we have a hollow service economy.
240, what do you think will be the engine of new growth?

The only thing I can possibly see really making a difference is cutting the corporate tax on all mfg, easing EPA regs and rules to allow for new plants of all types of goods, cutting the payroll tax, and doing whatwever possible to building new power plants of all types.

We need to make more damn things, not keep importing poverty, cheap crap from china, and exporting jobs.   

headhuntersix

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2009, 06:37:19 AM »
Remember when 240 was spouting numbers on how the DOW was going up, a few months ago....and then it fell back down. Nothing heard after that....Obama and his bullshit have done nothing. The spending isn't even front loaded to truly affect the numbers this quickly. His program will make things worse. Many economists think this thing is u shaped or a w...either way we're not even close to the end.
L

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2009, 06:52:19 AM »
I have a very hard time believing that, post up some stats.

It's breaking on CNBC now.  Jobs report is just coming out.
Job Losses at 345,000, Less Than Forecast; Rate at 9.4%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31121301

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2009, 06:57:57 AM »
Personally...

I think it'll be 6 to 9 more months of sludge.

More people are out of work, but they're spending again, at least from my perspective.  There's also a greater 'awareness' of unemployment.  People that were too lazy to work before 2008 are now blaming their lack of work on the economy.  I can name 3 acquantenecs who haven't worked in 4 years because they're drug addled and lazy.  They can't stop ranting about the economy now.  Bullshit.

So I think the dollar will end up 15 to 25% weaker.  I think the sky won't fall.  I think it'll be 6 to 9 months til things stabilize and we're on track again.  I know, chinese students and russian bloggers saying 'rome is burning' are exciting to read, but we have too many rich abd powerful ppl with too much to lose (and too many bases full of amped up guys like HH6 who would fire some parting shots if their checks stopped) for a crash to occur.

shootfighter1

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2009, 07:02:23 AM »
A small positive, at least there is less loss this month.  However, when we do stop the bleeding, I don't think we are going to see an intense rebound next year.  I'll bet the growth will be slower than the administration predicts.  I don't understand why payroll taxes and corporate tax rates aren't cut as part of a stimulus for all American business.  To me, that makes the most sense.

Whoever said we must create things to grow our GDP is correct.  We must create an environment where business thrives, albeit fairly.  New taxes will further depress the economy and mitigate growth (ie gas tax, cap & trade).

I'm not sure we can say the stimulus has had any real effect vs allowing the economy to recover without the billions we spent in 'stimulus'.  We are still pretty deep in the recession, stocks haven't risen much, GM went bankrupt despite giving billions in tax dollars, banks still aren't lending much despite TARP, the dollar has been devalued with the administration printing all this $, and we are on our way to 10% unemployment.  The point of the stimulus was to try to reduce the time to recovery and help create an environment for growth as soon as possible.  So far, I don't see it.  And if it does help, was it worth the amount of tax dollars we spent?

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2009, 07:08:33 AM »
And if it does help, was it worth the amount of tax dollars we spent?

We might never get back to 1999 levels.  Or even 2005 levels.

But we didn't let our financial system collapse.  I hear people say "hey, let Citi and AIG and all the other major banks fail, it won't affect me"...

Obama HAD to bail them out.  Yeah, things suck right now, but 10% unemployment beats 20% of americans losing their shirt.

tonymctones

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2009, 07:12:12 AM »
We might never get back to 1999 levels.  Or even 2005 levels.

But we didn't let our financial system collapse.  I hear people say "hey, let Citi and AIG and all the other major banks fail, it won't affect me"...

Obama HAD to bail them out.  Yeah, things suck right now, but 10% unemployment beats 20% of americans losing their shirt.
thats a very narrow view 240 yes 10% does beat 20% but does it still beat it when you take into account the unsurmountable amount of debt it takes to achieve that?

I dont know of anybody who said that it wouldnt affect them only that it wasnt worth it in the long run.

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2009, 07:18:40 AM »
thats a very narrow view 240 yes 10% does beat 20% but does it still beat it when you take into account the unsurmountable amount of debt it takes to achieve that?

I dont know of anybody who said that it wouldnt affect them only that it wasnt worth it in the long run.

I thin it was 333386 that said he does all his banking at regional banks - and that he received a letter from that bank saying they wouldn't be affected at all if the major banks failed.

I found this to be insulting to 333386, even if he swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.  It's all connected. 



I don't worry about the debt because I'm fairly sure 1 of 2 things will happen.  We'll either 'acquire' control of some great resource or technology and sell the world the next microsoft or electric car or whatever, and the $ will be so good it'll turn things around, or there will be so much world inflation that the 10 trillion printed won't be as impactful as it looks today.  I remember when the WTC's went down, people estimated it would be an insane "1 billion" impact to our economy.  A billion is nothing, today.  Even under Bush, $700 billion TARP... was helping the banks = 700 world trade centers?  No way. 

In five years, ten trillion bucks won't have the impact it has today.


tonymctones

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2009, 07:27:19 AM »
I thin it was 333386 that said he does all his banking at regional banks - and that he received a letter from that bank saying they wouldn't be affected at all if the major banks failed.

I found this to be insulting to 333386, even if he swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.  It's all connected. 



I don't worry about the debt because I'm fairly sure 1 of 2 things will happen.  We'll either 'acquire' control of some great resource or technology and sell the world the next microsoft or electric car or whatever, and the $ will be so good it'll turn things around, or there will be so much world inflation that the 10 trillion printed won't be as impactful as it looks today.  I remember when the WTC's went down, people estimated it would be an insane "1 billion" impact to our economy.  A billion is nothing, today.  Even under Bush, $700 billion TARP... was helping the banks = 700 world trade centers?  No way. 

In five years, ten trillion bucks won't have the impact it has today.


ill let 3333 respond to the first part

as for the second thats pretty naive and lets face business wise horrible planning your scenarios are the equivalent to "ehhh it'll all work out somehow"...I agree that in yrs to come the amount of money we borrowed wont be worth what it is now but that doesnt mean that we still wont owe money and that money still needs to be paid back and with the increasing intrest it will pretty much even out...Honestly imho the only thing that will save us from our debt is WW3 in which we can either sell our military goods to our allies or have our debt forgiven though assisting countries.

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2009, 07:31:15 AM »
as for the second thats pretty naive and lets face business wise horrible planning your scenarios are the equivalent to "ehhh it'll all work out somehow"...I agree that in yrs to come the amount of money we borrowed wont be worth what it is now but that doesnt mean that we still wont owe money and that money still needs to be paid back and with the increasing intrest it will pretty much even out...Honestly imho the only thing that will save us from our debt is WW3 in which we can either sell our military goods to our allies or have our debt forgiven though assisting countries.

Looking back at history, most presidents have borrowed more than the last group combined.  Obama's just following par.

Also, looking at history, there always is a big war to bail out the economy, put people to work, and rape/pillage the spoils/reparations from the losers.

If pakistan and india go at it... or iran and israel... or any other 2 groups, we'd find a way to get invovled, and it'd lead to economic recovery.

Remember, we were in for a major crash in late 2001... bubble burst in Jan 2001 and it was gonna be bad.  Then, 911 happened and we were drawn into wars which held off a major recession. 

However, since EVERYONE is in the same mess worldwide, it helps us a lot.  If inflation happens all over, you don't feel it as much. 

Soul Crusher

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2009, 07:35:13 AM »
I thin it was 333386 that said he does all his banking at regional banks - and that he received a letter from that bank saying they wouldn't be affected at all if the major banks failed.

I found this to be insulting to 333386, even if he swallowed it hook, line, and sinker.  It's all connected. 



I don't worry about the debt because I'm fairly sure 1 of 2 things will happen.  We'll either 'acquire' control of some great resource or technology and sell the world the next microsoft or electric car or whatever, and the $ will be so good it'll turn things around, or there will be so much world inflation that the 10 trillion printed won't be as impactful as it looks today.  I remember when the WTC's went down, people estimated it would be an insane "1 billion" impact to our economy.  A billion is nothing, today.  Even under Bush, $700 billion TARP... was helping the banks = 700 world trade centers?  No way. 

In five years, ten trillion bucks won't have the impact it has today.



240 - I'll use an example.  In the news you hear a lot lately as to how thse banks are "raising funds" to meet capitilization requirements and hopefully re-pay the tarp money. 

How do you think they are doing that????

1.  Increasing fees on business banking.
2.  Increasing normal fees on customers for checking etc.
3.  Increasing minimum balances so they can hit customers with service fees.
4.  Raising credit card fees and rates.


My bank did not have to do any of that since they never took tarp money and did not do any CDS or sub-prime loans.   

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2009, 07:36:48 AM »
My bank did not have to do any of that since they never took tarp money and did not do any CDS or sub-prime loans.  

You said your bank wouldn't be affected if CITI and AIG and friends failed.

Do you still feel that way?

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2009, 07:37:03 AM »

The US work force at 155 million people give or take a million. So 155,000,000 - 9.4% is 14,570,000.

If you use the same workforce numbers and subtract by 8.9% you get 13,795,000

so... 14,570,000 - 13,795,000 is ....775,000 jobs lost?

Waaaa?

Soul Crusher

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2009, 07:39:33 AM »
You said your bank wouldn't be affected if CITI and AIG and friends failed.

Do you still feel that way?

Citi and AIG did not have to be bailed out the way we did it.  If Citi went down to CDS - tough shit.  Same with AIG.  The govt could have stepped in as a backstop for normal banking. 

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2009, 07:40:13 AM »
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-higher-ahead-of-payroll-data

Details of the report were mixed. While the payroll figures from a survey of business sites was much better than expected, a separate survey of households showed unemployment increased more than expected. Unemployment rose by 787,000 in the month to 14.5 million, pushing the jobless rate from 8.9% to 9.4%, the highest since August 1983.

tonymctones

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #19 on: June 05, 2009, 08:07:24 AM »
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-higher-ahead-of-payroll-data

Details of the report were mixed. While the payroll figures from a survey of business sites was much better than expected, a separate survey of households showed unemployment increased more than expected. Unemployment rose by 787,000 in the month to 14.5 million, pushing the jobless rate from 8.9% to 9.4%, the highest since August 1983.
this also doesnt take into account the future job loss of the gm employees etc...or the temp jobs for the govt that will be gone sooner or later...

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2009, 08:09:40 AM »
this also doesnt take into account the future job loss of the gm employees etc...or the temp jobs for the govt that will be gone sooner or later...

*ALL* jobs are temp jobs these days.

People don't stay with the same firms for 25 years anymore.  These 'temp' workers put real $ into the economy for 1 or 2 or 10 years, which leads to new jobs that they can take once their temp stint ends.

240 is Back

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2009, 08:16:06 AM »
Here's the positive way to look at today's numbers.  Trends looking better.

Lowest point = when Bush left office.  It's improved every month since then.  Wow...


Bindare_Dundat

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2009, 08:19:27 AM »
Can you post a U6 report? I gotta fly.

tonymctones

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #23 on: June 05, 2009, 08:21:05 AM »
*ALL* jobs are temp jobs these days.

People don't stay with the same firms for 25 years anymore.  These 'temp' workers put real $ into the economy for 1 or 2 or 10 years, which leads to new jobs that they can take once their temp stint ends.
dude this is why you get the reputation of the obama butt plug bro...

of course every job is a temp job if you look at it like you are nobody works forever either they retire or die so those are temp jobs too by your ignorance...

difference is when ppl who have actual careers leave a job after 5 years they are leaving it for another job these temporary govt positions that have been created and filled will be terminated and the vast majority of those ppl will be unemployed instead of fill another position else where, you dig?

shootfighter1

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Re: May job numbers are out----
« Reply #24 on: June 05, 2009, 10:20:42 AM »
"Less than four months after the Obama administration argued that unemployment would top 9 percent only if Congress failed to pass a massive trillion-dollar "stimulus" spending bill, the Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate had soared to 9.4 percent, the highest in 25 years.

In pushing to get his $787 billion stimulus package passed in Congress, President Obama's economic team said that without the federal spending jolt, the unemployment rate would hit 8.8 percent by the last fiscal quarter of 2010. With the package, his advisers argued, the unemployment rate would reach only 7 percent.
"