Biden Says 'Everyone Guessed Wrong' on the impact of the Stimulus Bill (Ha!!!)

[Soul Crusher]

Biden Says 'Everyone Guessed Wrong' on Unemployment Numbers
FoxNews ^ | Sunday, June 14, 2009

Posted on Sunday, June 14, 2009 3:58:06 PM by Joiseydude

WASHINGTON -- Vice President Joe Biden said Sunday that "everyone guessed wrong" on the impact of the economic stimulus, but he defended the administration's spending designed to combat rising joblessness.

Biden said inaccuracies in unemployment predictions shouldn't undercut the White House's support of the $787 billion economic revival plan that has not met the expectations of President Obama's team. Instead, the vice president urged skeptics to look at teachers who kept their classroom assignments and police officers who kept their beats because of financial assistance from Washington.


(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com

________________________ _____________________

Wrong, many of us KNEW the stimulus was a joke and not going to work.

What a waste of money. 

[Purge_WTF]

  Boy, the beauty of hindsight. Throwing money at the problem wasn't/isn't going to do diddly-muff.

[240 is Back]

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

[Soul Crusher]

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

You sound like Bagdhad Bob.  240 - the stimiuls is not working because it is not geared to job creation, but rather, more govt spending to prop up state budgets. 

[240 is Back]

You sound like Bagdhad Bob.  240 - the stimiuls is not working because it is not geared to job creation, but rather, more govt spending to prop up state budgets. 

state  budgets are all about to fail due to the massive unemployment claims that obama inherited from dubya.

Many of these millions of unemployed people are getting 6 months' worth of pay, which is sapping the states dry.


Do you know what happens when a state goes bankrupt?  Or when 30 of them go bankrupt in a month?  Tell us, cause i don't...

[Al Doggity]

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

On top of that, inventory was drastically cut during the first quarter. Basically, meaning industry proactive in cutting their work force to stem losses. Even though there was a surplus of inventory at the end of last year, there hasn't been any at all this year, which is going to drive growth next year.

[GigantorX]

On top of that, inventory was drastically cut during the first quarter. Basically, meaning industry proactive in cutting their work force to stem losses. Even though there was a surplus of inventory at the end of last year, there hasn't been any at all this year, which is going to drive growth next year.

Yep. Cyclical stuff right here.

[Soul Crusher]

On top of that, inventory was drastically cut during the first quarter. Basically, meaning industry proactive in cutting their work force to stem losses. Even though there was a surplus of inventory at the end of last year, there hasn't been any at all this year, which is going to drive growth next year.

From a much lower baseline number. 

[Al Doggity]

Yep. Cyclical stuff right here.

Actually, it's not. Analysts have been surprised at how quickly and drastically inventory was cut. Almost no surplus in a quarter is a huge departure from previous recessions.

[Al Doggity]

From a much lower baseline number. 

That's almost irrelevant. That there will be growth is the important thing.

[Soul Crusher]

That's almost irrelevant. That there will be growth is the important thing.

How so???

If company A has 500 employees and does 100 million a year in business, and now has 350 employees and 75 million in business, are we considering it growth if he does 76 million next year???

Also, many companies are not carrying inventory anymore and ordering more as jobs or orders comes in as opposed to having inventory on hand. 

I have plumbing supply companies as clients and at least three have told me this.   

[Al Doggity]

Also, many companies are not carrying inventory anymore and ordering more as jobs or orders comes in as opposed to having inventory on hand. 

I have plumbing supply companies as clients and at least three have told me this.   

Exactly. That's the point I was making.Production and inventory were cut in anticipation of market action, not as a result of it. That hasn't been the pattern of most recessions. On top of that, comsumer spending actually rose in the second quarter. I haven't wanted to get into this, but I believe that this is a big part of why unemployment rose so much higher than the current administration predicted they would.

How so???

If company A has 500 employees and does 100 million a year in business, and now has 350 employees and 75 million in business, are we considering it growth if he does 76 million next year???

This is actually a perfect example of why the baseline is irrelevant. Let's say I buy a house for $300,000. Then parts of the house are destroyed in a flood or a fire. I spend another $50,000 making repairs just to get the house back to it's original condition. The entire 350k is tallied into the consumer spending index for the GDP, but no loss is. GDP only accounts for the total dollars spent, never any loss. Additionally, rate of production and level of surplus effect the GDP. So, you can have a business with a buttload of unsold surplus in boom times and this will be factored into the GDP, essentially bloating it. Then you can have businesses that adjust to razor thin inventories in downtimes (like the ones you mentioned you work with), and once that is factored into the gdp it can look much worse than it really is. On top of that, the gdp is measured against the value of the dollar. The GDP is a good indicator of certain things-like the direction of the economy- but the numbers are too fluid to make forensic comparisons.

[JOCKTHEGLIDE]

noticed the more you write about the political,,sheit the more you start to believe it for yourself so here you go,,

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

the unemployment slide has made a U-turn since January.

the economy tanked in sept 08.  huge lack of spending meant major job cuts across board, which led to more job losses.

This bottomed out in January, and we've seen fewer job losses every month.  Soon it should reach positive job growth, when we start to see recovery.

The BLS backs this up.

[Soul Crusher]

That's funny you mention 240's graph. 

Yes, the rate of loss has decreased - HOWEVER

1.  The rate of unemployment is still increasing.

2.  The people on UE cant find jobs

The stimulus did not do as it was promised because it was not geared to job creation.  It was geared to prop up states spending, which is not job creation. 

     

[Soul Crusher]

Exactly. That's the point I was making.Production and inventory were cut in anticipation of market action, not as a result of it. That hasn't been the pattern of most recessions. On top of that, comsumer spending actually rose in the second quarter. I haven't wanted to get into this, but I believe that this is a big part of why unemployment rose so much higher than the current administration predicted they would.



This is actually a perfect example of why the baseline is irrelevant. Let's say I buy a house for $300,000. Then parts of the house are destroyed in a flood or a fire. I spend another $50,000 making repairs just to get the house back to it's original condition. The entire 350k is tallied into the consumer spending index for the GDP, but no loss is. GDP only accounts for the total dollars spent, never any loss. Additionally, rate of production and level of surplus effect the GDP. So, you can have a business with a buttload of unsold surplus in boom times and this will be factored into the GDP, essentially bloating it. Then you can have businesses that adjust to razor thin inventories in downtimes (like the ones you mentioned you work with), and once that is factored into the gdp it can look much worse than it really is. On top of that, the gdp is measured against the value of the dollar. The GDP is a good indicator of certain things-like the direction of the economy- but the numbers are too fluid to make forensic comparisons.

Which to me means that the GDP does not really give an accurate indication of what is going on in the actual economy since in my example, those 25 employees are still unemployed and the business is taking in less money than the year prior.   

 

[Al Doggity]

Which to me means that the GDP does not really give an accurate indication of what is going on in the actual economy since in my example, those 25 employees are still unemployed and the business is taking in less money than the year prior.   

 

Dude, you said if a business does $350m in business with 500 employees, then drops to $75m with 350 employees, does an increase to $76m constitute growth?

Short answer: Yes, it does.

 Long answer: The reason it constitutes growth is because a smaller workforce means fewer expenses. So, even though they may be doing less in total business than they were doing at one time, their profits are going up. That's why I said your example was the perfect example of why the baseline didn't matter. The fact that the numbers went up from year to year is the important thing in regards to the company's financial picture.

If you want to compare that to the country's economic picture, here's one example. Even though the GDP has fallen, so has the trade deficit. It was recently at its lowest point in decades. This is largely because import has decreased. Once the economy picks up, the GDP will pick up again and the trade gap will widen again. So, even though Americans will be spending more money, a lot of it will be headed overseas

[shootfighter1]

Good comments, but the bottom line is that the administration was wrong on this one.  They predicted the unemployment rate would not exceed 8% with the stimulus (part of their selling points for the stimulus package) and it has exceeded that by nearly 1.5% so far....likely will exceed by 2%.  I think it is very hard to prove the enormous amount of tax $ spent has made any significant impact so far.  Wonder how much worse it would have been if we didn't have the stimulus.  The increased debt and further devaluation of the dollar probably outweights the small positive effect we will see.

What concerns me is that much of the money is going to temporary projects, temporary jobs and to bailout the states for their failure to budget. 

[GigantorX]

Good comments, but the bottom line is that the administration was wrong on this one.  They predicted the unemployment rate would not exceed 8% with the stimulus (part of their selling points for the stimulus package) and it has exceeded that by nearly 1.5% so far....likely will exceed by 2%.  I think it is very hard to prove the enormous amount of tax $ spent has made any significant impact so far.  Wonder how much worse it would have been if we didn't have the stimulus.  The increased debt and further devaluation of the dollar probably outweights the small positive effect we will see.

What concerns me is that much of the money is going to temporary projects, temporary jobs and to bailout the states for their failure to budget. 

Temporary stimulus. The question is what will it do long term? Does the govt. have any say on what the state govt's can spend it on? I know in my own city of Chicago that "Capt. Corruption " Mayor Richard Daley doesn't want the public to know what the stimulus money will be spent on.

And the further debt and devaluation of the dollar will mean higher oil/commodity prices which will outweigh the "tax breaks" and such in the stimulus bill.

[Kazan]

[shootfighter1]

Yep, long term I don't see the stimulus $ doing very much.  I think we are going to get little bang for our buck.  Anytime the gov gives money, they have a right to dictate how to use it (to your point about the states).  We need incentives to cut spending at every level of gov and trim bad programs.  We also give way too much aid to other countries at a time when we are hurting financially. 

Good government is strong, fair but limited government.

[Soul Crusher]

Yep, long term I don't see the stimulus $ doing very much.  I think we are going to get little bang for our buck.  Anytime the gov gives money, they have a right to dictate how to use it (to your point about the states).  We need incentives to cut spending at every level of gov and trim bad programs.  We also give way too much aid to other countries at a time when we are hurting financially. 

Good government is strong, fair but limited government.

Shoot - what do you think of the prosed health plan???

[GigantorX]

Yep, long term I don't see the stimulus $ doing very much.  I think we are going to get little bang for our buck.  Anytime the gov gives money, they have a right to dictate how to use it (to your point about the states).  We need incentives to cut spending at every level of gov and trim bad programs.  We also give way too much aid to other countries at a time when we are hurting financially. 

Good government is strong, fair but limited government.

There will never be a program cut or money truly cut from the budget. It just isn't going to happen, especially under this Administration where apparently printing money, having $1 trillion dollar deficits for 10+ years and promising giveaways for all is considered a new era of responsible spending and transparent govt. To them the problem isn't that we spend to much, it's that they don't take enough from us.

We don't even have real control over our own currency. In my opinion the only thing left to do is monetize the debt and start dropping tons of worthless dollars over China from B-52's.

As for the Stimulus, it's a fucking joke. More debt, more waste, more back scratching and more corruption. If only 5% of it has been spent thus far and the economy is "recovering" "green shoots" "blah blah propaganda", why did we need it in the first place? How will we have recovery when our dollar weakens like it has been for months now? Oil and commodities will become more expensive and the avg. US consumer won't have the cheap credit to maintain his/her lifestyle. This isn't good. I don't care if the DOW gained 25 pts the other day or not.

[shootfighter1]

I couldn't agree more and I really don't understand why people are ignoring this issue just because they hate Bush and like Obama.  Its blind support...thats why there is a huge discord between support for the president and support for recent policies. 

BTW, the DOW is down again today, nearly 200 points.  The DOW really hasn't moved that much since Obama was elected.

[shootfighter1]

33386, there has been several ideas thrown out and I only heard a little about each....so I need more detail to evaluate.  I think there could be things the government can do without having a gov ran system. A gov system competing with private insurance is a horrible idea...horrible.

-I would like to see more citizens have health coverage and would like to see a reduction in financial burdens on people. 
-For several yrs we have seen co-pays and deductables rise, which keep people away from their primary care doctors (who are trying to help people prevent disease & reduce cost).  That must be changed.
-I would like to see the government allow more competition between insurance providers and force insurance providers to quote the same rates for everyone (no longer group discounts that favor large business and hurt individuals or small groups...or allow people access to large group discounts). 
-Force insurance competition across state lines.
-To see the same compensation given to each provider and hospital for the same service.  Right now, private practice docs typically receive less money per visit (or procedure) compared to large hospital groups.  (Hospitals already have facility fees, they shouldn't get more $ per service too).
-Something done about frivilous lawsuits which drive up the cost of medicine via excessive defensive testing and skyrocketing malpractice premiums.  There must be screening by an independent judge or arbitrator to see if a case is reasonable to proceed with. 
-To see a reasonable cap on damages and a limit to lawyer compensation for medical awards, its about the patient receiving benefit for a medical mistake...the lawyer should be paid according to work done in the case.  We must limit the incentive for shark lawyers to 'retire on this case'.
-A restriction on end of life care is reasonable to limit expenses
-Promote preventative medicine and allocate research dollars to investigate the actual causes of aging via cellular and gene dysfunction rather than focusing on a drug based treatment system.
-I would also say be careful of giving all the power to hospitals...the best care is often given by doctor owned private groups who really care about people by the nature of the personality that is attracted to medicine (not CEO business persons who run hospitals).

[Soul Crusher]

BUMP