Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping
What do the following names have in common? Dan Henderson, Kevin Randleman, Chael Sonnen? Answer: They could have dominated their weight classes and retired with shiny belts around their waists if only they took a full year off and did nothing but train no-gi jiu-jitsu. I must say that Dan Henderson has the most evolved submission game among the aforementioned names and he did improve his submissions–both offensively and defensively- to a respectable degree. But given his (and other similar wrestlers’) strength, flexibility, agility and work ethic, it is hard to understand why, after such a long and illustrious career, Henderson does not follow up his excellent takedowns with armbars, kata gatames, kimuras or rear naked chokes. His striking is, likewise, nowhere near where it could be. No, I haven’t forgotten the famous right overhead that can kill a dinosaur, but where are the combinations or the kicks? Long story short, Henderson is a diamond in the rough with no time left to polish it up.
Michael Bisping, on the other hand, is learning as quickly as his fellow countryman Isaac Newton. He has evolved tremendously since his first appearance at the Ultimate Fighter and holds the honor of revisiting the show as a coach, not too long after graduating as a resident of that dangerous house; quite the steep learning curve. Bisping’s chief strength is his crisp stand-up. He has certainly evolved greatly as a ground fighter, but won’t take down Henderson. He could indeed find himself at the bottom following an upper body takedown by Henderson but I doubt he can submit the American from the bottom, which is a feat that no one has accomplished thus far. As Bisping himself stated, he will attempt to get up if the fight goes to the ground, as opposed to wasting energy and taking undue risks with reversal or submission attempts. So while the advantage on the ground goes to Henderson, I do believe that Bisping can do enough to either force a referee stand-up or get up on his own at some point.
For as long as the fight is standing, I give Bisping a slight advantage. With the exception of knockout power, he is superior to Henderson in almost every way while both are up on their feet. He utilizes knees and kicks very effectively, which Henderson has little answer to (though Henderson does an excellent job absorbing the punishment and continuing to push forward) and he can punch from a variety of positions and distances. Henderson’s effective range is not short but pretty inflexible; he must stand at a moderate distance with his right hand pulled slightly back and dropped a little, ready to snap into action with a twist of his waist. The resulting punch has the force of his entire upper body behind it and travels a long distance before hitting the opponent, thus reaching a very high velocity. If one of those grenades land right on the chin, it’s lights out. But unfortunately, this style necessitates a telegraphing of the upcoming punch, leaves his own chin somewhat exposed and, since he doesn’t mix it up with other stances and combinations, makes him a little predictable. He hasn’t done huge damage with this punch in his last four fights.
Bisping can counter this right hand in a variety of ways. He can circle away from it, just as Fedor kept circling away from CroCop’s left side to avoid the famous high kick, or he can stay out of the range of this looping right hand. The latter strategy is not easy to pull off because Henderson is known to follow up a forward leap with the right overhead, so simply staying outside of the conventional range may not cut it. Conversely, if Bisping comes too close, Henderson can clinch and take him down. Unlike Coleman, Henderson is a Greco-Roman wrestler and a moderately tight clinch is all he needs. If staying out of range or circling prove infeasible, Bisping’s other choice is to defend against the right overhead with pure speed and agility. Considering the somewhat lackluster performance of Henderson in the recent past, I consider this a feasible option. At 185, Bisping is quick, very quick actually, and can be simply bold and walk right into Henderson, taking a moderate but not overwhelming risk of suffering a knockout. I would in fact argue that what Bisping has to fear more is letting Henderson get away with a decision victory, by doing just enough to outlast his opponent for 15 minutes. In fact, seven out of Henderson’s last nine matches have gone to a decision, and when they do, the American Energizer Bunny tends to win.
Long story short, if Bisping can keep the majority of this fight standing, he can win this. While the ever-present danger of this fight dragging to a decision in favor of Henderson or him rediscovering the overhead right (which he hasn’t scored a knockout with in over two years) are somewhat worrying, Henderson’s deteriorating performance of late and Bisping’s hunger, speed and versatility make a bet on the Brit a reasonable proposition at +190. So I am putting just $120 of my imaginary dollars on Bisping. If Bisping wins, we will be up $228.
PS: Fingers crossed for not getting a “no contest” for unintentional headbut. With Henderson’s habit of pushing in with his head and Bisping’s speedy forward movements, that can happen and would suck. Before placing a bet, do ask the oddsmaker whether you will get your money back right away in such a case.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves
Fireworks, expect nothing but fireworks in this fight, for the Deadly Canadian Gentlemen is facing the Brazilian Pit-bull. Lest you accuse me of having lost my mind as you read on and slowly discover where I am going, let me just confess upfront: I will bet on Alves. Now if I had to pick one winner, with no betting lines involved, I would go with St. Pierre. But with Vegas giving odds of +250 for Alves, this is worth a shot.
Alves could beat St. Pierre simply because his aggression and fearless style is exactly what the doctor ordered. Hughes, Koscheck, Trigg and a host of others have tried to outmuscle St. Pierre before; unfortunately, it does not work. Neither judo nor wrestling, nor BJ’s crazy flexibility were enough to control St. Pierre. If St. Pierre wants you down, you’re going down, dog! So fighting the takedowns is not the answer, but what is? The answer is to ignore the takedowns, throw punches like every single one of them is the last strike of your life and pray for the best, which is exactly what Alves does for a living. Alves has an intensity that is so terrifying that I feel uneasy if I come closer than 10 feet to the television screen during his fights. He truly does not seem to care, whether his punches will break your jaw, pulverize your nose, or open a gash right above your eye. Nor does he seem to be concerned with catching the wrong spot on your head and breaking his hand in the process, giving up the takedown, or any other trivial matter of such nature.
His focus and rage are so overwhelming that no man, even St. Pierre, can distract or scare Alves. The pit-bull will come forward and engage in a fierce battle until one man lies motionless on the ground and the other is circling the octagon waving to a cheering crowd. Now, there is a good chance that Alves will be the one in a horizontal position, while St. Pierre will stand at a 90 degree angle murmuring something happy in French, but we simply cannot discount the possibility that the opposite outcome will materialize. It can happen in one way and one way only (knockout!), hence this is a dangerous bet (which we will take into account by betting a relatively modest amount)but the odds are tempting. A knockout could come in a variety of ways. Alves will certainly punish GSP every time the Canadian goes for the clinch. St. Pierre will not make the mistake that Hughes did and go for a double, which Alves could stuff with his famous flying knees. However, even St. Pierre’s upper body clinches are not risk-free and he is certain to eat a few heavy hands in the process. While I do think that St. Pierre will take Alves down, I am not sure it will happen as easily as many people assume. Alves is an extraordinarily strong 170 pounder and may very well be the heaviest guy St. Pierre has ever faced. So St. Pierre may be forced to soften him up with blows as he did against BJ Penn and put himself in harm’s way during the process.
Finally, let us not forget about those crazy kicks of Alves, which can do huge damage to the legs, midsection or even score a knockout. Most fans assume that Alves will be reluctant to kick for fear of a takedown (by way of GSP getting a hold of the kicking foot), but I dispute this on two counts. First, you cannot worry about takedowns when fighting GSP; sooner or later he will bring you down to the ground anyway. Alves knows this better than anyone; he will stick to his striking game and not allow the fear of GSP’s wrestling disintegrate his game plan. Secondly, GSP will have a hard time catching the Brazilian’s legs due to a variety of reasons. Alves kicks very hard and very fast, nor does he leave his foot hanging after the kick; his pullback is swift and sudden. In addition, catching a striker’s leg for a takedown is far easier if you can dictate the distance and have little fear of the striker’s hands. Neither is true in this particular case. Alves is just as quick as GSP on the feet and with more tools than the Canadian at his disposal (a wider variety of effective punches and significantly better kicks) he won’t allow GSP to dictate the distance. Make no mistake about it, if Alves hits you anywhere between the hips and the shoulder, you’re in trouble. You cannot block them with the arm, as these can easily shatter your forearm. Nor can you simply cover your head with your elbow and decide to take the kick on your ribs. Your only choice is to avoid those kicks altogether by staying out of their range. This is the precise reason very very few people were able to catch CroCop’s kicks to follow it up with a takedown. So Alves does have tools in his arsenal to damage GSP and hurt him.
Bottom line; I give GSP a slightly higher than 50% chance to win this fight, because he will likely take this fight to the ground and if he can do so without taking too much damage, he can control Alves on the ground for long enough for a referee stoppage or a decision. But Alves has far more than a punchers’ chance and will present an immense danger to GSP every time the Canadian gets into close range. Therefore, we are betting $120 on Alves and with odds of +250 in our favor, we will get $300.
In Sum:
Lesnar beats Mir ($240 on Lesnar)
Bonnar beats Coleman ($250 on Bonnar)
Bisping beats Henderson ($120 on Bisping)
Alves beats St. Pierre ($120 on Alves)
