Oil at $100, Interest Rates May Stifle Recovery: Roubini
Topics:Inflation | Recession | Stock Market | Market Outlook | Economy (U.S.) | Commodities | Oil | Politics & Government | Federal Reserve | Banking | European Central Bank | Central Banks | Interest Rates | France | Britain | Economy (Global)
Sectors:BanksBy: CNBC.com | 22 Jun 2009 | 06:21 AM ET Text Size The price of oil, which is rising too fast, and long-term interest rates that are beginning to creep up are likely to suppress a budding recovery, famous economist Nouriel Roubini, also dubbed "Dr. Doom," told CNBC Monday.
"I see even the risk of a double-dip, W-shaped recession… towards the end of next year," Roubini told "Squawk Box Europe."
"Oil could be closer to $100 a barrel towards the end of this year, this could be a negative shock to the economy," he said, adding that other dangers come from long-term interest rates and big budget deficits.
In the next few months, unemployment may reach 11 percent in the US and around 10 percent in Europe.
Because of bad macroeconomic data and poor earnings prospects as companies have weak pricing power and demand is still subdued, the surprises will be on the downside, he said.
"That's why I believe there's going to be a significant market correction for equities, for commodities and even for credit," Roubini added.
He said recovery signs should come from unemployment, housing, industrial production, sales and consumption data.
"When I look at them I see so far still more yellow weeds than green shoots. They have to bottom out, in my view they haven't bottomed out. This recovery, unfortunately, because of the debt overhang… is going to be a very weak economic recovery, in my view," he added.
The large budget deficits caused by government stimulus packages and bailouts make the work of central banks harder, as they now have to be cautious regarding inflation.
In Europe, the dangers came both from its weak economy and from exposure of Western European banks to Eastern European economies, he said. But protectionism is not an answer, Roubini warned.
"The reality is that too much protection would be dangerous," he said.
"In Europe there is a risk that even the single market is breaking down because of protectionism, let alone the rest of the world," Roubini added.
— With reporting by Stephane Pedrazzi in Paris. Watch the full Roubini interview above.
© 2009 CNBC.com
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Roubini, Schiff, Faber and others have been far more accurate than others.
