http://market-ticker.denninger.net/This morning the market spiked based on the "better than expected unemployment numbers";
initial jobless claims 565,000 instead of 603,000 expected. But let's not forget that this is still a half-million people who filed unemployment last week, never mind that Friday was July 4th and the unemployment offices were closed!So we had a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one, and yet people jump up and down and scream "green shoots!"
Someone needs to remind people that when you remove 20% of the reportable days from a week, you shrink the reportable number by 20% or so too (less whatever behavioral shift has people showing up the previous day.)
Rick Santelli threw the appropriate amount of cold water on this report, given that
continuing claims are now up to 6.88 million - up more than 170,000 over estimates! As I have repeatedly said, continuing claims are what count - it is not whether you lose your job, it is whether you can find a new one. If the answer is no, the continuing claims number will continue to ramp even though the "initial claims" number comes down.
The answer is "no" to the question of "if you get laid off, can you find a new job."
Don't listen to the fools - there is no "green shoot" in that report.
