Author Topic: Wiggs' 2009 Olympia Analysis (Read 1809 times)

Wiggs · « **on:** July 19, 2009, 05:23:51 PM »

Jay is a dark horse. I don't expect him to look like 2001 or 2003 and this line up is too strong for him to come in looking ok to win. If he does somehow show up in shape, he will win.

Dennis has all the potential in the world, problem is he has too many holes to fill, lower back, calves and conditioning. Other guys like Phil, Jay, Kai and Dex only have to worry about conditioning. Dennis could place from 2-5 unless he makes a really dramatic change.

Dex is just a fill in...sorry. He won cause Jay was off not cause he was better. That's the life of a short bodybuilder. A good taller bodybuilder is always better than a good short one. I see Dex in 3rd or 4th.

Kai can place 1-3. His conditioning is consistent and he improves with every show. Problem is with all the weight he put on is waistline expanded. He still looks good but he's no Phil in the symmetry department.

Phil has improved alot and his width doesn't seem to be the issue it used to be. He really has no weaknesses. Problem is Kai and Dex will make him look soft because of muscle maturity, density and conditioning. Otherwise Phil would be Mr. O.

Victor is another guy with all the potential but has yet to cash in. He should have beaten Jay in 07. If Vic could come in Kai conditioning, he'd be Mr. O a long time. I don't think his legs at the Arnold were a problem, it was his conditioning. He can't seem to hold it. Vic could place 1-4. We don't know how the death of his sister has affected his preparation. I don't see him winning this year because of that and because others who have perfected coming in shape.

Tony Freeman is not a factor. It will be difficult for him to break into 6. I see him in 7th place unless someone comes in off. At his height he has a habit of coming in "stringy" although he didn't last year, he showed up his best and still got 5th I believe. He would need about 20lbs more of muscle and the same conditioning to be a factor and at 43, I don't see that happening.

So with that, I have it....

1,2,3. Kai, Phil or Jay
4,5 6. Vic, Dex or Dennis
7. Tony

Who will round out the top ten? Well, with three spots left, Branch, Silvio and Melvin seem likely but one of those will come in off and fall out. My bet is on Melvin. There will be a dark horse to break in and take his place.

In addition one of my top seven will not do well and will fall into the top 10. It always happens.

I'll change this as we get closer to the show.

kiwiol · « **Reply #1 on:** July 19, 2009, 05:29:28 PM »

Agree with most of it, although I'd put Dex above Phil and Kai when it comes to probability of winning or at least placing second. Dex is probably the only guy there apart from Kai who is sure to nail his conditioning for the contest. With Jay, Phil, Vic and Wolf, it's hit or miss.

tendonitis · « **Reply #2 on:** July 19, 2009, 05:29:54 PM »

The Olympia is going to be won by one of three people, Dex, Phil, or Jay. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't been paying attention. NO ONE from MD is going to win the Olympia. Period.

Phil Heath is going to be the next Mr. Olympia, that's already been decided by the machine. It's just a matter of when. If he doesn't win it this year, it will either be Dex or Jay. Phil will definitely be Mr. Olympia by 2010.
And there's not a damn thing Vic, Kai and Dennis can do about it.

Wiggs · « **Reply #3 on:** July 19, 2009, 05:31:38 PM »

Quote from: tendonitis on July 19, 2009, 05:29:54 PM

The Olympia is going to be won by one of three people, Dex, Phil, or Jay. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't been paying attention. NO ONE from MD is going to win the Olympia. Period.

Phil Heath is going to be the next Mr. Olympia, that's already been decided by the machine. It's just a matter of when. If he doesn't win it this year, it will either be Dex or Jay. Phil will definitely be Mr. Olympia by 2010.
And there's not a damn thing Vic, Kai and Dennis can do about it.

I chose not to buy into the MD/FLEX conspiracy.

tendonitis · « **Reply #4 on:** July 19, 2009, 05:39:29 PM »

Quote from: Wiggs on July 19, 2009, 05:31:38 PM

I chose not to buy into the MD/FLEX conspiracy.

2007 Mr. Olympia

Wiggs · « **Reply #5 on:** July 19, 2009, 05:50:42 PM »

BTW, I don't know if the O is sponsored by Muscletech this year. I see no logos like last year. They have bigger problems like the payout of the class action lawsuit

webcake · « **Reply #6 on:** July 19, 2009, 05:54:33 PM »

Hard to pick this year. A few guys have a pretty good shot at taking the title. I'm putting my money on Jay for the win. 2nd, 3rd etc.......too hard to pick.

just_a_pilgrim · « **Reply #7 on:** July 19, 2009, 06:01:54 PM »

Quote from: Wiggs on July 19, 2009, 05:31:38 PM

I chose not to buy into the MD/FLEX conspiracy.

Hard not to after 2007

physicsgeek · « **Reply #8 on:** July 19, 2009, 08:29:39 PM »

Quote from: Wiggs on July 19, 2009, 05:50:42 PM

BTW, I don't know if the O is sponsored by Muscletech this year. I see no logos like last year. They have bigger problems like the payout of the class action lawsuit

I think it is sponsored by Ultimate Nutrition this year.

webcake · « **Reply #9 on:** July 19, 2009, 08:32:02 PM »

Quote from: physicsgeek on July 19, 2009, 08:29:39 PM

I think it is sponsored by Ultimate Nutrition this year.

That's good news for Ruhl then........maybe he will crack the top 10.

DeketheCreep · « **Reply #10 on:** July 19, 2009, 09:37:46 PM »

great thread by wiggs!

glad to see you posting again brother of iron
I agree with everything,im thinking jay is going to show up ripped to shreds!

DeketheCreep · « **Reply #11 on:** July 19, 2009, 09:45:10 PM »

honest · « **Reply #12 on:** July 19, 2009, 11:32:24 PM »

After watching last years, from up the front it was more Jay lost than Dexter won, personally i prefer Dexters shape, but Jay was off and thats why he won.

This year.

1 Cutler he wont screw up again.
2 Dexter to complete
3 Kai could definately be higher, but the grapefruit and gay for pay will hurt him here more than anywhere.
4 Martinez Off as usual.
5 Heath improved and no doubt if he absolutely nails it meaning his best ever condition he can win, but i think hes a year or two off that.
6 Wolfe great physique but the olympias judged more on what you havenet got and that is a granite hard full back and calves that will improve with the same deep site therapy that served ronnie so well, but prob a year or two off his best similar to Heath.

Mars · « **Reply #13 on:** July 19, 2009, 11:34:03 PM »

cutler had his time. hes better off gardening in his yard in his last stage of life.

Palpatine Q · « **Reply #14 on:** July 19, 2009, 11:46:20 PM »

Jay has looked progressively worse the last three O's.

He looked okay and beat an old and damaged Coleman in 06

He looked like crap and was given the title amongst MAJOR backlash in 07

And he looked even worse in 08 and lost the title, what makes you guys think he's going to miraculously turn back the clock to his prime?

History shows us when a BBer starts to fade, there is no reversing it

Stavios · « **Reply #15 on:** July 20, 2009, 12:08:58 AM »

Quote from: Groink on July 19, 2009, 11:46:20 PM

History shows us when a BBer starts to fade, there is no reversing it

Troy Alves

Palpatine Q · « **Reply #16 on:** July 20, 2009, 12:17:01 AM »

Quote from: Stavios on July 20, 2009, 12:08:58 AM

Troy Alves

when did he fade? he always looks about the same, i give credit that he looked good his last show, but nothing mind-blowing.

Jay's best showing are 5 years ago. that's a little different. his right side is getting progressively worse

Stavios · « **Reply #17 on:** July 20, 2009, 12:24:11 AM »

Quote from: Groink on July 20, 2009, 12:17:01 AM

when did he fade? he always looks about the same, i give credit that he looked good his last show, but nothing mind-blowing.

Jay's best showing are 5 years ago. that's a little different. his right side is getting progressively worse

He came out looking really good in 2003, then "ok" in 2004, also "ok" in 2005, bad placings in 2006-2007-2008, then won a show in 2009 in his best condition ever !

not a big guy but great physique

I agree for Jay, but I still think he can come in looking decent this year (like 2006)

Palpatine Q · « **Reply #18 on:** July 20, 2009, 12:28:04 AM »

Quote from: Stavios on July 20, 2009, 12:24:11 AM

He came out looking really good in 2003, then "ok" in 2004, also "ok" in 2005, bad placings in 2006-2007-2008, then won a show in 2009 in his best condition ever !

not a big guy but great physique

I agree for Jay, but I still think he can come in looking decent this year (like 2006)

Agreed on Alves having a great physique...I like his look better than Cutler's all day long

honest · « **Reply #19 on:** July 20, 2009, 12:58:14 AM »

Jay needs to come in a little depleted, i think his issue with the way he looks is more an over carbing thing in an attempt to be at his biggest to compete with Coleman, now with Dexter and the crew his main competition he can turn his attention to being shredded rather than at his absolute biggest, his right side is an issue no doubt though, lets face it, it finished Ronnie to much bodyweight on the spine causing disc issues in turn compressing nerves that can cause muscular atrophy in the attached muscles is certainly begining to be an issue in bodybuilding as the guys get bigger and bigger.