NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Redbook Research on Tuesday released the following seasonally adjusted weekly data on U.S. chain store sales:
Year-over-year: Week (w/e 8/22/09 vs year ago) -4.4 pct
Year-over-year:Month (August 2009 vs August 2008) -4.4 pct
Month-over-month: (August 2009 vs July 2009) -0.7 pct
Uh, what back-to-school shopping?
August 09 over July 09 (first three weeks) is never supposed to be negative, since that's when parents equip kids for school.
Well, this year it was.
Despite the claims of "green shoots" the fact remains that every indication I've got "on the ground" in high-frequency (and high-reliability!) economic statistics says that the consumer's wallet has in fact snapped shut.
This is not about a consumer "lack of desire" to shop, it is about a lack of ability to pay.
Untill consumers are spending, (really spending again), the DOW could go to 30,000 and it won't mean a thing.