Author Topic: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts  (Read 1448 times)

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Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« on: August 31, 2009, 10:41:15 AM »
Democrats are in hot water, according to political analysts quoted in Monday's Politico.

According to two key observers, Charlie Cook and 538.com's Nate Silver, Democrats are poised to lose "double-digit" seats in the House amid an increasingly bitter political climate.

Silver apparently stunned a liberal audience at the blogger convention Netroots Nation earlier this month, saying that the Republicans have a 25 to 33 percent chance of retaking the House. For both observers, such a happenstance seems unlikely, though first- and second-term Democrats appear particularly vulnerable.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

"Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.

...Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website 538.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.

“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”
-John Byrne


headhuntersix

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2009, 10:43:54 AM »
This guy said that 20-30 seats was what he felt would be average but it could be worse....I'm not sure that article was posted here.
L

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2009, 10:55:33 AM »
Lets see 240:

1.  Like it or not:   Palins' "Death panels" took hold and now is the face of Obamacare. 

2.  Cap & Trade is a massive issue amongst voters who are likely to vote in mid-term elections. 

3.  Spending - we went from a reckless president to a complete disaster. 

4.  28 Czars and counting.  The hard right is ready to revolt and wish 2010 were tommorow and ready to express themselves.

5.  The LGBT vote is pissed off at ZERO.

6.  The dunce vote stays home in mid-terms. 

       

headhuntersix

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2009, 11:01:05 AM »
240...look at 3's list. Whos' framing the debate on that? Repubs,Repub surrogates and the media....chiefly Fox News. Those who frame generally win. Obama framed the debate in 2008 and he won. Barry has shed all the Indy votes and has pissed away the ultra lefties who just won't vote. U really need to look at history, read a book or two and then analyze whats happening. Nobody really got pissed at Bush like this. Sure, the ultra Left did, but now they're pissed at Barry for the same reasons. Ur average citizen is being heard at townhalls. If there was a Republican Barry right now....able to energize the Right and center, people would be calling for a new election.
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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2009, 01:31:23 PM »
Obama has lost most of the center, created distance with some conservative democrats and lost some of the moderate republicans who voted for him because they thought he may usher in some kind of new politics in washington (which completely did not happen) and because of the historic nature of the victory.  What has happened during this presidency is pretty straight forward as far as persuing typical left wing progressive, big government policies.  Obama is no moderate, the assertions of him being a quasi-socialist was right on. He is aggressively pushing as many left wing policies as possible in his 1st year.  He's a smart guy, no doubt but is alienating many who voted for him.

One of Obama's biggest mistakes IMO is allowing Pelosi and Reid dictate too many things in congress and an expansion of government which many people in this country oppose.  I also think the excessive spending on his watch is a big issue and the old "blame it on the previous administration" has now passed its direct applicability.
Most of the country is somewhat centrist.  Yeah he may have pissed off the far left with a few items, but who else do they have to vote for.  A complete fringe candidate on either side will not remain in office.

Obama may be a better president with a more balanced or conservative leaning congress.  Perhaps it will push him to moderate more as Clinton did in his second term, which was fairly successful.

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2009, 01:54:20 PM »
It may well....but the discourse in Congress and DC has gotten so out of wack that Barry might just flail along for his last 2 years.
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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2009, 02:46:52 PM »
1.  Like it or not:   Palins' "Death panels" took hold and now is the face of Obamacare. 

yeah, if you want to trumpet her praises for exploitive phrases like this, be my guest.


"My parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama's death panel so his bureaucrats can decide ... whether they are worthy of healthcare."

Almost as pathetic as "In the name of the troops, stop making things up about me, media!"


haha pathetic role model 33, but hey, she's hot... who needs substance?

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2009, 02:50:27 PM »
yeah, if you want to trumpet her praises for exploitive phrases like this, be my guest.


"My parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama's death panel so his bureaucrats can decide ... whether they are worthy of healthcare."

Almost as pathetic as "In the name of the troops, stop making things up about me, media!"


haha pathetic role model 33, but hey, she's hot... who needs substance?

240 - yes the phrase was silly - but I posted an article by a liberal in another thread that really showed how effective that phrase it because it exposed the basic truth about most of Obamacare - Rationing for elderly people and panels to determine the effectiveness of the treatments, not the doctors.   

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2009, 02:53:10 PM »
Yeah...substance..just like ur recent posts on "hoping" Barry moves to the Center. Palin is framing the debate, Barry has lost control of it.
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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2009, 03:07:22 PM »
240 - THIS IS FROM THE OTHER THREAD.  ITS FROM A LIB.  READ IT CAREFULLY SO YOU SEE HOW PALIN OWNED THE LEFT ON THIS. 

________________________ ________________________ ________________________ ________________________ __
________________________ ________________________ ________________________ ___

How Sarah Palin Rope-a-Doped All-Too-Many Liberals

As a liberal myself, I was amazed by the obtuseness of the liberal reaction to Sarah Palin’s “death panels” quote. They fell into a trap because all too many were blinded by their class-conscious, snobbish disdain for Palin, who, whatever else you think of her, is one cagey operator.

And in doing so they allowed that one brilliantly crafted propaganda phrase to undo the chance for some necessary health care reforms (portability of coverage, no disqualification for previous conditions, eligibility to some plan for all, subsidized coverage for the impoverished uninsured).

They couldn’t believe that Sarah Palin was capable of something as canny as that deadly “death panels” phrase. They couldn’t see that it was a metaphoric shorthand for something real. Instead they thought she was too dumb, that she meant it literally (to have seen the potential for rationed end-of-life care in the bill), and instead indulged in an orgy of disdain for her “crazy,” “ignorant” “lies” and malicious misrepresentation.

No! “Death panels” was a Lenny Bruce black-humored kind of line and she proved herself far hipper than the terminally square liberals who didn’t get it. And who started an ill-conceived war on the phrase which most of the country, when the facts came out, saw as meretricious or ignorant on the liberals’ part — with good reason. And caused ordinary citizens to turn against the whole cause of health care — really it should be health insurance — reform.

Liberals should have responded the way my friend Joe Conason (and a few other non-snotty liberals) did, by pointing out that we already have death panels of a sort: the ones manned by the insurance companies who ration and deny coverage for the sake of their profit margins. Would government rationing be better? It might be less greed-motivated, but maybe not. There at least should have been a discussion of the real issue of health care rationing.

Because yes, there is a “panel” in the bill that will “evaluate” the cost effectiveness of various expensive, minimally life-extending treatment decisions — decisions that any health-care program, public or private, may have to make. No, individuals won’t have to stand before it, but individuals will be affected — and sometimes suffer — from its decisions.

But liberals and, shamefully, liberal oriented media — most of them — made the mistake they keep making about Sarah Palin: because she didn’t go to Princeton she’s incapable of seeing or cutting to the heart of the matter so shrewdly. They had a chance to respond as Conason did: put her on the spot by asking her exactly what she’d do about existing insurance company “death panels.” Instead, they didn’t believe she was sophisticated enough (like them) to make the point she was making.

And then the facts began to leak out, as even the media began to read the bill and its implications and backtrack on its deeply flawed literal-to-the point of stupidity “fact checks”– and people got legitimately outraged at being treated like Sarah Palin: too dumb to understand. When in fact they — the liberals and the media — were the ones whose knee jerk reactions were ignorant.

Of course the overreaction by genuinely ignorant right-wingers (”I don’t want the government to mess with my Medicare”) and the thuggish, lynch mob behavior at town halls (boasting of shouting others’ down and other mob tactics, Hitler mustaches etc., rather than making rational arguments and respecting other citizens) including the terrorist tactic of bringing guns to town hall meetings, showed that the right could squander an advantage in legitimate debate by making an ugly spectacle of itself.

Nonetheless, when the history of the whole misbegotten health care reform effort is written, Sarah Palin has to be given credit for stopping it on a dime — and the snotty liberals who underestimated her should be held responsible.

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2009, 03:21:58 PM »
33,

Libs have credibility suddenly when you agree with them?

Skip8282

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2009, 05:05:42 PM »
240...look at 3's list. Whos' framing the debate on that? Repubs,Repub surrogates and the media....chiefly Fox News. Those who frame generally win. Obama framed the debate in 2008 and he won. Barry has shed all the Indy votes and has pissed away the ultra lefties who just won't vote. U really need to look at history, read a book or two and then analyze whats happening. Nobody really got pissed at Bush like this. Sure, the ultra Left did, but now they're pissed at Barry for the same reasons. Ur average citizen is being heard at townhalls. If there was a Republican Barry right now....able to energize the Right and center, people would be calling for a new election.


I just don't see it happening yet.  333386 gives a good list of valid complaints about the left, but I'm still not seeing solid, meaningful Republican alternatives.  Bitching about Obama's performance is the easy road, clearly communicating their own platform is another.

What is the Republican alternative for overhauling the health care system?  For turning around the economy?  For tackling our problems in Afghanistan.  Hell, sometimes I can't even tell if the Republicans can agree amongst themselves.

IMO endless bitching about Obama or the dems isn't going to win the election.  Putting forth a cohesive platform will.

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2009, 05:06:44 PM »
BTW, great article 333386!!  :)

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2009, 06:12:31 PM »
33,

Libs have credibility suddenly when you agree with them?

I didnt say that 240 - but like it or not, the author of this article, who is a lib, understands what Palin accomplished with the Death Panels comment.  The "Death Panels" issue is not a joke and presents a real issue about what is being proposed, rationing and community standards regarding care to sick people as outlined by Ezekial Emanuel.

240 - read the article again, closely and slowly, and lets talk about the substance of the article, not some silly spin game you want to play. 


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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2009, 06:31:51 PM »
who is the self-described "lib" author?

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MM2K

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2009, 12:11:07 AM »
Quote
What is the Republican alternative for overhauling the health care system?  For turning around the economy?  For tackling our problems in Afghanistan.  Hell, sometimes I can't even tell if the Republicans can agree amongst themselves.

1. Health Care System - make it so that individual and employer provided insurance are treated equally under tax laws. Repeal the federal law that allows each state to regulate their health insurance markets so we can have intersate competition. Do away with mandates that force insurers to cover certain health conditions. Put caps on rewards damages and put in special health courts to get malpractice premiums down. Pass laws that encourage the creation of health savings accounts and high deductable policies.

2. Economy - Create two simple tax brackets - 10% and 25% and cut taxes. Cut the capital gains tax atleast by 5% (this should be a no brainer) or better yet do away with it. Cut the dividends tax more. Get rid of the estate tax. Cut the corporate tax rate down to atleast 25% (this should also be a no brainer). Provide tax subsidy incentives for people to buy existing houses. Provide tax subsidy incentives for people to buy new automobiles (not just freaky deaky fuel efficeint vehicles). Spend money on programs to repair roads, etc. Spend money to replace damaged weapons systems. A lot of aging beaurocrats will be retiring soon. Use the opportunity to get rid of those positions.

3. Afghanistan- McCain was also going to raise troop levels. Republicans arent criticising Afghanistan.

Republicans have never done a good job of articulating thier positions since Reagan. Part of the problem is that conservative principles are hard to articulate. They are boring: they dont work overnight. They just work. They certainly dont elicit the same exciting response as promises to offer healhtcare for free or for a discount. Also, conservative solutions go against the grain of the natural tendencies of man.

As I have said before, there are various reasons healthcare costs are going up. Some of them are natural. Some of them are unnatural. You have to get rid of the unnatural reasons and cope with the natural reasons and let them sort themselves out. Democrats want to preserve the unnatural reasons and try to fight the natural reasons. That is a recipe for disaster.
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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2009, 02:01:48 AM »
i agree with the deregulation. having one standard is better than the 51 we have today.

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2009, 04:40:25 AM »
1. Health Care System - make it so that individual and employer provided insurance are treated equally under tax laws. Repeal the federal law that allows each state to regulate their health insurance markets so we can have intersate competition. Do away with mandates that force insurers to cover certain health conditions. Put caps on rewards damages and put in special health courts to get malpractice premiums down. Pass laws that encourage the creation of health savings accounts and high deductable policies.

2. Economy - Create two simple tax brackets - 10% and 25% and cut taxes. Cut the capital gains tax atleast by 5% (this should be a no brainer) or better yet do away with it. Cut the dividends tax more. Get rid of the estate tax. Cut the corporate tax rate down to atleast 25% (this should also be a no brainer). Provide tax subsidy incentives for people to buy existing houses. Provide tax subsidy incentives for people to buy new automobiles (not just freaky deaky fuel efficeint vehicles). Spend money on programs to repair roads, etc. Spend money to replace damaged weapons systems. A lot of aging beaurocrats will be retiring soon. Use the opportunity to get rid of those positions.

3. Afghanistan- McCain was also going to raise troop levels. Republicans arent criticising Afghanistan.

Republicans have never done a good job of articulating thier positions since Reagan. Part of the problem is that conservative principles are hard to articulate. They are boring: they dont work overnight. They just work. They certainly dont elicit the same exciting response as promises to offer healhtcare for free or for a discount. Also, conservative solutions go against the grain of the natural tendencies of man.

As I have said before, there are various reasons healthcare costs are going up. Some of them are natural. Some of them are unnatural. You have to get rid of the unnatural reasons and cope with the natural reasons and let them sort themselves out. Democrats want to preserve the unnatural reasons and try to fight the natural reasons. That is a recipe for disaster.


Good post. 

I might add:

1.  We need to encourage & promote domestic energy production and domestic manufacturing of the goods we consume. 

2.  Drastically cut waste fraud and abuse in govt and govt contracting on all levels. 

3.  Audit the DOD, DHS, CIA, FBI, DEA, ATF, and consolidate many operations. 

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2009, 07:54:40 AM »
We should probably limit congressional terms as well.  Limit a member of congress to 2 consecutive terms, then out.  They can run again for another 2 consecutive terms after the break and thats it (no more than 8 yrs total).  We don't need lifetime congress members who make their inner corrupt deals to stay in office.

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #20 on: September 01, 2009, 08:42:05 AM »
yeah, if you want to trumpet her praises for exploitive phrases like this, be my guest.


"My parents or my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama's death panel so his bureaucrats can decide ... whether they are worthy of healthcare."

Almost as pathetic as "In the name of the troops, stop making things up about me, media!"


haha pathetic role model 33, but hey, she's hot... who needs substance?

Ummm,please,for an Obama whore,substance is a subject you might want to avoid.If it werent for his teleprompter and his speech writers his only phrase would be 'ummmmmmm,ahhhhhhhhhh,hmmmmmmmmm".

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2009, 11:01:41 AM »
We should probably limit congressional terms as well.  Limit a member of congress to 2 consecutive terms, then out.  They can run again for another 2 consecutive terms after the break and thats it (no more than 8 yrs total).  We don't need lifetime congress members who make their inner corrupt deals to stay in office.

i think this notion is a fantasy  :-\

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2009, 11:02:59 AM »
Ummm,please,for an Obama whore,substance is a subject you might want to avoid.If it werent for his teleprompter and his speech writers his only phrase would be 'ummmmmmm,ahhhhhhhhhh,hmmmmmmmmm".

Billy, in the name of the troops*, please stop dissing obama





*(C) Sarah palin, 2009.

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2009, 11:20:57 AM »
Billy, in the name of the troops*, please stop dissing obama





*(C) Sarah palin, 2009.

"duuuh the police acted stupidly".

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Re: Dems poised to lose 20-50 seats in House: experts
« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2009, 11:40:42 AM »
The cop said in his report that the phrase 'black man' was used.

I believe it was shown this was never said, and he added it later.  Recordings showed she actually thought they were hispanic.

So yeah, I think falsifying a police report is kinda stupid.