MLB Playoffs Thread

[Grape Ape]

I'm well aware of how baseball works in terms of short series and small sample sizes, and believe that trying to predict individual performance in the playoffs is an exercise in futility.  To say that Sabathia will be outpitched by Verlander or vice-versa is just a guess, since any player can have a good/bad game on any given day.

I prefer to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team and go from there.  I'll start with sox/yanks because I can post stuff with them without looking up anything.

Yankees - good starting pitching, incredible lineup, great 8th and 9th bullpen guys, and the best team at playing the same level at home and on the road.   Weakness - inconsistency throughout the year from Burnett/Chamberlain, Damon's defense in LF, Swisher's occasional head scratching plays in RF.

Sox - good  starting pitching (great #1, #2), good lineup, good bullpen, great closer.   Weakness - different team away from Fenway (.856 home OPS vs. .753 on the road), lineup can be streaky, potential recent health concerns with Beckett and Lester, inconsistency from #3 and #4 starters.

[body88]

I think the health concerns have been made to sound worse than they really are by design.  Also, I think Dice and Clay are awesome 3rd + 4th starters.  Have you been watching Clay over his last 5 games?  Granted he put up a stinker recently, but he was lights out before that.  Dice has been good too.

Stats, numbers, whatever....in the playoffs, good pitching beats good hitting, and the Red Sox have the pitching edge on the Yankees.  If the sox pitch well they can beat the Yankees.  I'm, not looking past the Angels, because they are due...  They have lost to the Sox for so long, they have to win at some point.

I'm well aware of how baseball works in terms of short series and small sample sizes, and believe that trying to predict individual performance in the playoffs is an exercise in futility.  To say that Sabathia will be outpitched by Verlander or vice-versa is just a guess, since any player can have a good/bad game on any given day.

I prefer to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team and go from there.  I'll start with sox/yanks because I can post stuff with them without looking up anything.

Yankees - good starting pitching, incredible lineup, great 8th and 9th bullpen guys, and the best team at playing the same level at home and on the road.   Weakness - inconsistency throughout the year from Burnett/Chamberlain, Damon's defense in LF, Swisher's occasional head scratching plays in RF.

Sox - good  starting pitching (great #1, #2), good lineup, good bullpen, great closer.   Weakness - different team away from Fenway (.856 home OPS vs. .753 on the road), lineup can be streaky, potential recent health concerns with Beckett and Lester, inconsistency from #3 and #4 starters.

[Grape Ape]

I think the health concerns have been made to sound worse than they really are by design.  Also, I think Dice and Clay are awesome 3rd + 4th starters.  Have you been watching Clay over his last 5 games?  Granted he put up a stinker recently, but he was lights out before that.  Dice has been good too.

Stats, numbers, whatever....in the playoffs, good pitching beats good hitting, and the Red Sox have the pitching edge on the Yankees.  If the sox pitch well they can beat the Yankees.  I'm, not looking past the Angels, because they are due...  They have lost to the Sox for so long, they have to win at some point.

The health concerns about Lester are now gone after tonight.  I've seen Buchholz (I track all this stuff mostly due to fantasy BB), but I'm just not sold.  I'm not saying he's bad, I just think he's a hit or miss, especially now that he's passed 200 innings.  Like said previously though, it's futile to predict individual performance, but I don't think the sox have better SP than NY 1-4.  It's even.  At their respective bests, their #1 and #2s are close, but I think Pettitte is a better bet than Matsuzaka or Buccholz.  Chamberlain's a crap shoot.

I'm not really into the "good pitching beats good hitting" too much.  Yes, good pitching is most likely the most important asset, but great hitting and working the pitch count can neutralize it.

[garebear]

It's go time.

[Grape Ape]

Puljos rules.

Carpenter/Wainwright look like a tough 1-2 in a short series.  If they can beat out the Phillies, they could have an easy first round.

[body88]

The health concerns about Lester are now gone after tonight.  I've seen Buchholz (I track all this stuff mostly due to fantasy BB), but I'm just not sold.  I'm not saying he's bad, I just think he's a hit or miss, especially now that he's passed 200 innings.  Like said previously though, it's futile to predict individual performance, but I don't think the sox have better SP than NY 1-4.  It's even.  At their respective bests, their #1 and #2s are close, but I think Pettitte is a better bet than Matsuzaka or Buccholz.  Chamberlain's a crap shoot.

I'm not really into the "good pitching beats good hitting" too much.  Yes, good pitching is most likely the most important asset, but great hitting and working the pitch count can neutralize it.

Keep in mind you said the same thing about Lester when I called him a blue chipper, the year before last.  I'm sold on Buchholz and I think Beckett and Lester have a far better playoff track record than CC and whats his face.  Infact, 1-3 the Sox starting pitching has much better playoff experience, imo.

[Grape Ape]

Keep in mind you said the same thing about Lester when I called him a blue chipper, the year before last.  I'm sold on Buchholz and I think Beckett and Lester have a far better playoff track record than CC and whats his face.  Infact, 1-3 the Sox starting pitching has much better playoff experience, imo.

Lester's been a much better pitcher than I thought he would be.  I never thought his FB was anything special, but now I've seen him harness his ability to locate it much better, and cut it into right handers.   That's what I get for going against professional scouts like Keith Law.

I"m not saying Buchholz is not good, or won't be.  I just don't think he's found that level of consistency yet.  In other words, I consider him a crap shoot as well going into the playoffs just like Joba - could pitch a great game, could get hit hard.  That's why I said I think Pettitte has a better CHANCE of a better start.

I don't disagree about the amount of playoff experience, but I don't think it matters all that much.  Every year we see stellar performances from players who have never played in the postseason, and we see poor performances from those who have.

[body88]

I'd say Dice K has just as good of a chance of a good start in the Playoffs as Pettitte, and imo, the sox have the deeper pitching as a whole.  Also, by the tone of your post, it seems like you are saying certain attributes or facts are a crap-shoot at times, while using chance and stats at other times.  Which is it?  If experience doesent matter, why are we having this conversation?

Lester's been a much better pitcher than I thought he would be.  I never thought his FB was anything special, but now I've seen him harness his ability to locate it much better, and cut it into right handers.   That's what I get for going against professional scouts like Keith Law.

I"m not saying Buchholz is not good, or won't be.  I just don't think he's found that level of consistency yet.  In other words, I consider him a crap shoot as well going into the playoffs just like Joba - could pitch a great game, could get hit hard.  That's why I said I think Pettitte has a better CHANCE of a better start.

I don't disagree about the amount of playoff experience, but I don't think it matters all that much.  Every year we see stellar performances from players who have never played in the postseason, and we see poor performances from those who have.

[njflex]

BODY88.u are obviously a redsox fan and i'm a yankee fan,i give the redsox credit as a great team ,but they have lost 6 in a row,and ur banking on dice k as usual ,face it he is not worth that contract,that 18-2 season was a slight smokescreen,he has not dominated the yankess at all in the 3 yrs he's there,too many pitched he threw 113 against the yanks last wk .the yankees offense destroys the redsox at this point,and bullpens is yankess by a small margin now.say what u will .

[Grape Ape]

I'd say Dice K has just as good of a chance of a good start in the Playoffs as Pettitte, and imo, the sox have the deeper pitching as a whole.  Also, by the tone of your post, it seems like you are saying certain attributes or facts are a crap-shoot at times, while using chance and stats at other times.  Which is it?  If experience doesent matter, why are we having this conversation?

I'm not doing that.  I'm saying Pettitte has a better chance because he has more of a track record throughout his major league career, not because of his playoff experience.  Pettitte has also been one of the better pitchers in MLB since the ASB, whereas Buchholz's success was was more recent.  In other words, Pettitte's been consistent for a longer period of time than Buchholz.

I don't see how the sox pitching is really deeper, or that deep at all.  All of the supposed depth in the beginning of the year (Smoltz, Masterson, and Penny) are gone, and who knows what Wakefield gives.  After that who is left.  Bowden? Byrd?  I don't think any sox fan would be comfortable with those guys on the mound in the playoffs.   I think the starting pitching, and pitching overall, is pretty even.

[CalvinH]

Yanks,Angels,Sox,or the Cardinals....the rest have no shot.

[CalvinH]

Enjoy the first round exit, Boston!

I would welcome that.I think the Yanks would take the Angels this year.

[Grape Ape]

I would welcome that.I think the Yanks would take the Angels this year.

I have confidence in any best of 7, no matter who the match up is.  I just HATE the best of 5.  It's incredibly stupid to have a 162 season marathon decided by a series that short.

[njflex]

I have confidence in any best of 7, no matter who the match up is.  I just HATE the best of 5.  It's incredibly stupid to have a 162 season marathon decided by a series that short.

SUX,MOST YRS I WOULD BE AFRAID TO FACE VERLANDER 2X BUT NOT THIS YR,THIS TEAM AT HOME.BUT OVERALL 5 GAME SERIES ARE EITHER 3-0 OR 3-1 AND OUT.2-2 AND ITS NAIL BITING TIME.

[Grape Ape]

SUX,MOST YRS I WOULD BE AFRAID TO FACE VERLANDER 2X BUT NOT THIS YR,THIS TEAM AT HOME.BUT OVERALL 5 GAME SERIES ARE EITHER 3-0 OR 3-1 AND OUT.2-2 AND ITS NAIL BITING TIME.

I hear you.  I'm taking the standpoint that THEY have to face CC, and their lineup isn't anywhere near ours.

We had a .862 team OPS this year, compared to Detroit's .781.

We scored 898 runs to their 732.

The Yankees SHOULD win.

[CalvinH]

What a shame that the Tigers and Twins have a 1 game playoff to see who plays the Yanks ;

[CalvinH]

Here's hoping for a 16 inning game tonight!

[body88]

I hear you.  I'm taking the standpoint that THEY have to face CC, and their lineup isn't anywhere near ours.

We had a .862 team OPS this year, compared to Detroit's .781.

We scored 898 runs to their 732.

The Yankees SHOULD win.

None of that means much in the playoffs.  Verlander is a monster.  They could ride their pitching to a win.  Not likely, but it could happen.

[CalvinH]

Here's hoping for a 16 inning game tonight!

I'll take 12

[Grape Ape]

None of that means much in the playoffs.  Verlander is a monster.  They could ride their pitching to a win.  Not likely, but it could happen.

I know, that's why I prefaced the start of this thread with the comments I made about short series.

[Grape Ape]

I'll take 12

Well done, my man.  Well done.

Use this AWESOME video to get pysched:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xapplh_get-ready-for-the-showdown_sport

[CalvinH]

Good start for the Yanks.

Jeter being Jeter
Arod with a couple of 2 out hits.
Good starting pitching and bullpen work.

[Grape Ape]

Yeah.  It was also nice of Jeter to erase the 2 run deficit very quickly to ease the tension.

I read this at another site.  It sums up the best of 5 perfectly:

Seriously, when the worst team in baseball wins 60 games a year, how much less variance does a series like that have than, say, a single game? The team with the better record in Divsion Series advances only 48 percent of the time. The first round of baseball’s season is, almost literally, a coin flip. Some people will say that such a format adds to the drama. I say it makes a ridiculously long regular season even more trivial and–when you consider baseball’s unbalanced scheduling–patently unfair.

[CalvinH]

Nice start for the Dodgers.
I was suprised by the Sox,Angels game.no runs for the Red Sox

[Grape Ape]

big_mal must be riding high right now.  Winning the Carpenter AND Wainwright games?  Unbelievable.

That's what Matt Holiday gets for trying to catch a ball with his nuts.   But, in his defense, their closer blew the game.