Author Topic: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High  (Read 869 times)

SAMSON123

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U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« on: November 19, 2009, 06:36:14 PM »
U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High

DAVID STREITFELD
Published: November 19, 2009

Nearly one in 10 homeowners with mortgages were at least one payment behind in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.
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Justin Sullivan/Getty Images



A couple waits to speak to a financial counselor at an event last month in Daly City, California, aimed at helping people get their mortgages restructured to avoid foreclosure.

That is the highest figure since the association began keeping records in 1972. It is up from about one in 14 mortgage holders in the third quarter of 2008.

“Clearly the results are being driven by changes in employment,” Jay Brinkmann, the association’s chief economist, said on a conference call with reporters. Five million more unemployed people over the last year has turned into about two million more overdue loans, he added.

The association’s delinquency numbers do not include those who are actually in foreclosure, a figure that also rose sharply, to 4.47 percent of all loans. A year ago, it was 2.97 percent.

The combined percentage of those in foreclosure as well as delinquent is 14.41 percent, or about one in seven mortgage holders. About 52 million homeowners have mortgages.

In previous recessions, homeowners who lost their jobs could sell the house and move somewhere there were better prospects, or at least a cheaper lifestyle. This time around, many of the unemployed are finding that the value of their property is less than they owe. They are stuck.

“This translates into more foreclosures,” Mr. Brinkmann said.

It also indicates that foreclosures, instead of peaking with the unemployment rate next year, will be a lagging indicator. The association expects foreclosures to peak in 2011.

The data indicate that borrowers in trouble are no longer just those who took out subprime loans. High-quality prime fixed-rate mortgages now represent the largest share of new foreclosures.

The survey is based on a sample of more than 44 million mortgage loans serviced by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts, credit unions and others.

While the percentages of loans 90 days or more past due, loans in foreclosure, and foreclosures started all set record highs, the percentage of loans 30 days past due is still below the record set in the second quarter of 1985. At that point, the recovery from the recession of the early 1980s was well under way.
C

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2009, 07:50:02 PM »
so many of these folks were poor savers who probably should have been renting for the last 10 years.

Sometimes it's the better option.  Even Peter Schiff rents!

SAMSON123

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2009, 08:59:44 PM »
so many of these folks were poor savers who probably should have been renting for the last 10 years.

Sometimes it's the better option.  Even Peter Chuff rents!

Hindsight is always TOO LATE...

These people were duped like so many others: Enron, Worldcom, Arthur Anderson, Bernie Madoff, Investment Banking, Stocks in Home and Commercial mortgages, Wall Street etc etc. It seemes like the ideal and safe thing to do until the charlatons pulled a fast one on everybody. Home mortgage rates TRIPLING OVERNIGHT (literally) crashing economy, jobs lost etc etc all resulted in people losing their incomes and their homes. This is shameful yet another example of the corruption of a capitalistic society.
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24KT

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2009, 01:58:41 AM »
If THIS doesn't put the punctuation mark on what I've tried to say for so long, ...I don't know what does?

Your home is not an asset, ...it is a liability. the only time it is an asset, is when you OWN it free and clear, ...and it is providing a positive income / cash flow. If it's not providing a positive income, ...it ain't yours, you're just living in it, paying to keep it maintained, and forking over your money until the bank either takes it, or informs you that you can stop paying for it... through the nose or otherwise. There's a huge difference between what the poor, the middle class and the wealthy purchase with their money. if you don't know what those differences are, ...you had better find out soon. What you don't knoe CAN and most often does hurt you.
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Emmortal

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2009, 02:03:45 AM »
If THIS doesn't put the punctuation mark on what I've tried to say for so long, ...I don't know what does?

Your home is not an asset, ...it is a liability. the only time it is an asset, is when you OWN it free and clear, ...and it is providing a positive income / cash flow. If it's not providing a positive income, ...it ain't yours, you're just living in it, paying to keep it maintained, and forking over your money until the bank either takes it, or informs you that you can stop paying for it... through the nose or otherwise. There's a huge difference between what the poor, the middle class and the wealthy purchase with their money. if you don't know what those differences are, ...you had better find out soon. What you don't knoe CAN and most often does hurt you.

A lot of stupid people got caught up on all those house flipping shows and thought they could go around buying up houses and flipping them and become rich.  The problem is, none of those idiots knew the first thing about real estate.  It would be like taking a bumb off the street and putting him on the stock exchange floor and expect him to make you millions.  Not only that, but it's not just the banking institutions fault it was the publics fault for being greedy fucks.  Greed has ruined this country from its core and is the root of most of the problems we're facing today.  We're all just a bunch of greedy fucks and now it's biting us in the ass.

24KT

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2009, 02:21:47 AM »
A lot of stupid people got caught up on all those house flipping shows and thought they could go around buying up houses and flipping them and become rich.  The problem is, none of those idiots knew the first thing about real estate.  It would be like taking a bumb off the street and putting him on the stock exchange floor and expect him to make you millions.  Not only that, but it's not just the banking institutions fault it was the publics fault for being greedy fucks.  Greed has ruined this country from its core and is the root of most of the problems we're facing today.  We're all just a bunch of greedy fucks and now it's biting us in the ass.

I'll agree there is much truth in what you've said, ...however in too many cases, it wasn't all about greed, or reckless irresponsible spending. I know a guy who lives in an 8,0002 foot home. You may call it excessive, however, he didn't just run out and buy it, try to do a sophisticated real estate deal. This was his family home that he'd lived in for years. He owns 2 businesses ...I guess 3 now, ...but a few months ago was the first time in 41 yrs that he had ever worried about making a house payment. The economic collapse has devastated people from all walks of life. Fortunately in the last 90 days, he was able to pay off $50,000.oo in credit card debt, and get his mortgage paid up til March or May, I'm not sure which one. Let's say march to be on the safe side. The point I'm trying to make is... not everyone caught up in that situation is there due to their own greed or mismanagement. Outside forces often play a huge role in how you are impacted. Not everyone is as fortunate enough or flexible enough to manuever themselves out of the way when the train wreck occurs.
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Emmortal

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2009, 02:45:36 AM »
There's always exceptions, some people have been smart about things.  But there were far more people on the greedy side (both in the general public as well as private sector) that caused these problems.

Everyone I talk to is really uneasy about things.  I'm concerned about finding work for the first time in 6 years (I do a lot of freelance/contract work) but thankfully I've got 12 months of savings tucked away just in case.

24KT

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2009, 03:02:09 AM »
There's always exceptions, some people have been smart about things.  But there were far more people on the greedy side (both in the general public as well as private sector) that caused these problems.

Everyone I talk to is really uneasy about things.  I'm concerned about finding work for the first time in 6 years (I do a lot of freelance/contract work) but thankfully I've got 12 months of savings tucked away just in case.

Wait til the currency collapses. That 12 months worth of savinngs will turn into a weeks worth of groceries,
...if you're lucky.  ;)

What kind of freelance / contract work do you do?
w

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2009, 06:32:03 AM »
Wait til the currency collapses. That 12 months worth of savinngs will turn into a weeks worth of groceries,
...if you're lucky.  ;)

What kind of freelance / contract work do you do?

I'm heavily invested in brass and lead right now.   

SAMSON123

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2009, 09:14:24 AM »
There's always exceptions, some people have been smart about things.  But there were far more people on the greedy side (both in the general public as well as private sector) that caused these problems.

Everyone I talk to is really uneasy about things.  I'm concerned about finding work for the first time in 6 years (I do a lot of freelance/contract work) but thankfully I've got 12 months of savings tucked away just in case.

I don't know where you are getting this FALSE information from. The vast majority of people in america who bought homes were FIRST TIME HOME OWNERS. Many went from renting to home ownership, because it was being marketed in america as the GREAT VALUE AND ASSET OF OWNING A HOME (more scams). With  the values of homes being OVERINFLATED many used the opportunity to invest in a house (at low interest ARM loans) and/or update the home they were living in. Yes there were some who entered in on the GREED game, but they had their MAIN HOME and flipped only houses they intended to sell to others...they did not flip their own house, which would have left them constantly moving from place to place and potentially in major financial jeopardy.

So far as your comment on your own difficulties... You consider your own employment problems but not that of others? 100 percent of the home failures was due to one of two things: person lost their job/income and could not maintain their mortgage or mortgage rates doubled, tripled and even quadrupled FORCING the homeowner into bankruptcy and foreclosure. You have a year of salary you say..pray no medical emergency comes up, or a ridiculous house/apartment increase in mortgage/rent, or as Jag says a financial drop that turns your assets into pennies literally overnight.....

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2009, 09:23:50 AM »
Samson - you also have the issue of people so underwater on the house they are just defaulting on purpose and walking away from these things. 

Emmortal

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2009, 08:33:31 PM »
I don't know where you are getting this FALSE information from. The vast majority of people in america who bought homes were FIRST TIME HOME OWNERS. Many went from renting to home ownership, because it was being marketed in america as the GREAT VALUE AND ASSET OF OWNING A HOME (more scams). With  the values of homes being OVERINFLATED many used the opportunity to invest in a house (at low interest ARM loans) and/or update the home they were living in. Yes there were some who entered in on the GREED game, but they had their MAIN HOME and flipped only houses they intended to sell to others...they did not flip their own house, which would have left them constantly moving from place to place and potentially in major financial jeopardy.

So far as your comment on your own difficulties... You consider your own employment problems but not that of others? 100 percent of the home failures was due to one of two things: person lost their job/income and could not maintain their mortgage or mortgage rates doubled, tripled and even quadrupled FORCING the homeowner into bankruptcy and foreclosure. You have a year of salary you say..pray no medical emergency comes up, or a ridiculous house/apartment increase in mortgage/rent, or as Jag says a financial drop that turns your assets into pennies literally overnight.....

Marketing has absolutely no bearing on personal responsibility.  These people knew exactly what they were getting into, they signed the loans, they read the terms they KNEW their rates would/could increase and did not appropriate financially for that to happen.  This is the same logic fat people used when trying to sue McDonald's for making them fat.  They didn't have to buy a home, especially knowing they could barely afford it, let alone have enough money left over in case something happened, which it did.  There is no way you can excuse anyone for being so fucking stupid, doing so is just a complete removal of responsibility from the individual which is total bullshit.  No one forced them to buy these homes at these terms, therefore it's their own fucking fault for being in the situation they are in.


SAMSON123

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2009, 09:19:24 PM »
Marketing has absolutely no bearing on personal responsibility.  These people knew exactly what they were getting into, they signed the loans, they read the terms they KNEW their rates would/could increase and did not appropriate financially for that to happen.  This is the same logic fat people used when trying to sue McDonald's for making them fat.  They didn't have to buy a home, especially knowing they could barely afford it, let alone have enough money left over in case something happened, which it did.  There is no way you can excuse anyone for being so fucking stupid, doing so is just a complete removal of responsibility from the individual which is total bullshit.  No one forced them to buy these homes at these terms, therefore it's their own fucking fault for being in the situation they are in.



I really hope emmortal that you are not out of your teens yet....stupidity like you are expressing is only acceptable at teen years.

Clearly you don't own a home and have not ever purchased and substantial item: car, home, taken out a loan, dealt with any legal matter etc. Had you done so you would know the paper work for a home loan is practically as thick as a dictionary. Home buyers are told partially what the paperwork means and the banks know the legaleeze game and use it on the borrower. They make taking out a loan seem easy and safe, the same way they made the ARM loans appear to rise only a percent or two at BEST. The home buyers gladly took out the ARM loans with no fear of severe financial consequence. What they did not know is the ARM would be tripled EVEN QUADRUPLED... and they certainly did not suspect the economy would turn into such a disaster with MILLIONS of lost jobs, investments destroyed, pensions wiped out, insurance lost etc. No ARM loan has EVER done such a thing...going up two to five percentage points in one thing...going up ten to fifteen percentage point makes it impossible for anyone to hold onto their home. These two factors of job loss, interest rate escalation is what is causing the foreclosures as seen. Even the rich and famous are losing out on their possessions as their SAFE investments turned out to not be so at the hands of the charlatons who swindled it from them.

Be more compassionate toward the unfortunate... living in your parents home at their expense has made you feel invincible. The financial pains of america will soon be on your doorstep as well...lets see how you handle things then.
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Emmortal

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2009, 10:21:26 PM »
I really hope emmortal that you are not out of your teens yet....stupidity like you are expressing is only acceptable at teen years.

Clearly you don't own a home and have not ever purchased and substantial item: car, home, taken out a loan, dealt with any legal matter etc. Had you done so you would know the paper work for a home loan is practically as thick as a dictionary. Home buyers are told partially what the paperwork means and the banks know the legaleeze game and use it on the borrower. They make taking out a loan seem easy and safe, the same way they made the ARM loans appear to rise only a percent or two at BEST. The home buyers gladly took out the ARM loans with no fear of severe financial consequence. What they did not know is the ARM would be tripled EVEN QUADRUPLED... and they certainly did not suspect the economy would turn into such a disaster with MILLIONS of lost jobs, investments destroyed, pensions wiped out, insurance lost etc. No ARM loan has EVER done such a thing...going up two to five percentage points in one thing...going up ten to fifteen percentage point makes it impossible for anyone to hold onto their home. These two factors of job loss, interest rate escalation is what is causing the foreclosures as seen. Even the rich and famous are losing out on their possessions as their SAFE investments turned out to not be so at the hands of the charlatons who swindled it from them.

Be more compassionate toward the unfortunate... living in your parents home at their expense has made you feel invincible. The financial pains of america will soon be on your doorstep as well...lets see how you handle things then.

Oh please.  When someone fails at an argument they always resort to the lowest form of retort: personal attacks.  Not everyone on this board is 16 year old twinks.  I've owned several pieces of property, over 12 cars throughout my life all bought without the help of anyone but myself.  You are focusing on one part of the issue, ARM loans, which wasn't the entire cause nor was it focused on in my reply.  There were also a lot of no-doc loans issued which is also a contributing factor which I should have specified to begin with.  I'm not disposing of any compassion toward anyone, just stating that there are a LOT of people who got into situations that they knew well and good that they shouldn't have.  There are many many people who fall into this category and those are the ones I'm talking about.  I have no compassion for them, nor the banks that were equally responsible, nor the government who put our nation into a debt it will never get out of to bail them out.

24KT

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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2009, 01:07:18 AM »
Marketing has absolutely no bearing on personal responsibility.  These people knew exactly what they were getting into, they signed the loans, they read the terms they KNEW their rates would/could increase and did not appropriate financially for that to happen.  This is the same logic fat people used when trying to sue McDonald's for making them fat.  They didn't have to buy a home, especially knowing they could barely afford it, let alone have enough money left over in case something happened, which it did.  There is no way you can excuse anyone for being so fucking stupid, doing so is just a complete removal of responsibility from the individual which is total bullshit.  No one forced them to buy these homes at these terms, therefore it's their own fucking fault for being in the situation they are in.


Emmortal,  right now, the fastest growing segment of foreclosures, are from those with fixed rate mortgages.
When the economy tanks, and people lose their jobs and find themselves applying along with 10,000 other people for 1 job... something eventually gives. Businesses that used to enjoy a brisk trade, lose all their patrons. I remember how the writers strike devastated Hollywood. It's a domino effect. the studios shut down, therefore costume rental companies suffered. makeup artists, hair dressers, carpenters etc found themselves out of work. Actors used to being versatile, tried to cultivate their flexibility by working as waitors, ...but guess what... with no one going to the studios everyday, restaurants and cafeterias in the area suffered as well. Even though they had no clientele coming in... the fixed overhead of a traditional brick n' mortar business, never goes away. Infact, if you pay rent, or have any kind of a business loan, the costs just keep growing. the minute the clock turns midnight, more interest is tacked onto your loan or mortgage, and another days rent and utilities are due... whether you have a customer or not. you are paying money 24 hrs a day, but you're only making money (if you're lucky) for a limited portion of the day (during the businesses hrs of operation.)

That's why I would never own a traditional brick n' mortar business. in order for me to get ahead, ...my income has to at the very least be generated at the same rate at which I am paying out money 24 hrs a day, 7 days a week. that's why I only deal in internet based global business opportunities that allow me to earn an income 24 hrs/day 7 days/week and does not limit me to local walk in traffic. My girlfriend woke up yesterday to discover she'd made $10,000 while she was sleeping... but I digress. my point is, the vast majority of foreclosures we're seeing today, are those who had fixed rate mortgages and impeccable credit ratings.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091119/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosures

Foreclosures hitting more people with good credit



By Alan Zibel, Ap Real Estate Writer
 – Thu Nov 19, 6:10 pm ET

WASHINGTON – The foreclosure crisis likely will persist well into next year as high unemployment pushes more people out of homes, pulls down housing prices and raises concerns about the broader economic recovery.

The latest evidence was a report Thursday that a rising proportion of fixed-rate home loans made to people with good credit are sinking into foreclosure. That's a shift from last year, when riskier subprime loans drove the housing crisis.

The report from the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that 14 percent of homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on payments or in foreclosure at the end of September. It was a record-high figure for the ninth straight quarter.

The data suggest the housing market and the broader recovery will remain under pressure from the surge in home-loan defaults, especially as unemployment keeps rising. Lost jobs are the main reason homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages.

After three years of plunging prices, the housing market started to rebound this summer. That lifted hopes for the overall economy. But analysts say there are too many foreclosed homes that have yet to be dumped on the market and expect further price declines.

Among states, the worst damage is still concentrated in the states hardest hit from the start: Florida, Nevada, California and Arizona. Together, they accounted for 43 percent of new foreclosures.

One in four mortgages in Florida were either past due or in foreclosure, the most in the U.S. Nevada was close behind at 23 percent.

"There's no indication in this data that foreclosures are going to abate anytime soon," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, who projects that nationwide home prices will fall up to 10 percent before bottoming next fall.

Driven by rising unemployment, prime fixed-rate loans to borrowers with good credit accounted for nearly 33 percent of new foreclosures last quarter. That compares with 21 percent a year ago.

Many laid-off homeowners might be able to survive on their savings for a while, but "the longer the economic situation stays in place, the less likely they are to hold on," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

In markets where foreclosures already are high and still rising, prices likely will remain soft. That will cause developers to keep their bulldozers idle and prevent the industry from making a big contribution to the economy's recovery.

"Builders only start homes when they can make money," said John Burns, an Irvine, Calif.-based real estate consultant. "In a lot of areas, until prices go back up, construction doesn't make any sense."

The crisis has struck people like Betty Wilson of San Diego. She was laid off a year ago from her job at an insurance company.

Since then, Wilson has managed to pay her $1,090 mortgage bill from collecting unemployment benefits, renting out a room and dipping into savings. But money is running low. She fears she won't make her payment for December.

Wilson, 56, said she has tried to get her mortgage company, GMAC Mortgage, to lower her 6.25 percent interest rate or give her a temporary break from payments. Many mortgage companies will let a borrower skip up to six months of payments, though they require that the money be paid back eventually.

After The Associated Press inquired about her case, a GMAC spokeswoman said Thursday that the company would offer Wilson reduced payments for four months, "while we continue to review her financials for a permanent solution."

After a typical recession, foreclosures peak about six months after the unemployment rate does. But the process could take longer this time, in part because loan-modification programs and new state laws have prolonged the process. Unemployment, now at 10.2 percent, isn't expected to peak until next spring or summer.

Another unknown is the effectiveness of the Obama administration plan to attack the foreclosure crisis. As of last month, about 20 percent of eligible borrowers, or more than 650,000 people, had signed up. But most of those enrolled have been chosen for trials lasting up to five months.

About 4 million homeowners were either in foreclosure or at least three months behind on their mortgage payments as of September, according to the mortgage bankers group. Even if some of them manage to stay in their homes, the market is likely to absorb a wave of new foreclosures. Those properties are concentrated in states like Florida and other already beleaguered areas.

Subprime loans with adjustable rates have fallen to 16 percent of new foreclosures, from 35 percent a year earlier. Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration also show rising signs of trouble. More than 18 percent of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's quarterly survey of 44.6 million loans is considered the most authoritative report on mortgage delinquencies. A separate report, issued monthly by foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc., is based on courthouse filings.



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Re: U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach A Record High
« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2009, 05:14:49 AM »
The fact of the matter is that many of these people gambled and lost and got caught up in the casino of wall street. 

Many of these people knew their budgets were tight but figured the prices would go up forever and worst case scenario they would just sell the house and pocket the difference. 

You want to laugh Samson, in 2005-2007 my business kicked major ass and I pocketed great money.  However, I live in Westchester and the homes and taxes are insane.  I always looked at homes etc, but the escalating prices scared the hell out me since I figured if I bought a home at that time most of the appreciation was being built into the oprice and I had more downside risk than anything considering the ponzi scheme had to end at some point. 

I caqnt even tell you how many fights I had with realotrs and mortgage brokers over this begging me to buy.  WHen I explqained to them that peoples' income was not keep pace with the increases in the prices, there was major problem.  Also, the average home where I live is about 600k.  Do the math!  The average guy in my hood does not make 150-200k a year.  Thus, to me that whole thing weas out of whack and I just stayed renting since it made noi sense to buy.  I bought my office building which I got on the cheap and am still way ahead oin that since I practiucally got it northing,

The point is, most people got caught up in the hype and the scams.  They thought that prices would go up forever and that there was really no downside risk because "everyone knows RE never goes down". 

Look how that worked out!