Economy appears to be losing steam (It's beginning to look like a 'W' curve)
Marketwatch ^ | 11/24/2009 | Irwin Kellner
Posted on Tuesday, November 24, 2009 10:18:30 AM by SeekAndFind
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It's beginning to look a lot like a "W."
After logging the fastest rate of growth in two years last quarter, the economy appears to be losing steam during the current period.
This is no big surprise; the consensus of forecasters surveyed weekly by MarketWatch has long been expecting slower growth during the fourth quarter.
Their latest projections call for a growth rate of 2.5% -- a percentage point slower than the government's preliminary take on the previous quarter. (See Economic Calendar.)
There's plenty of evidence that our panel may be right -- if not a tad optimistic. For one thing, total consumer spending -- the biggest single chunk of the economy -- fell in September for the first time in four months and by the biggest percentage since December 2008.
In October, retail sales excluding autos grew 60% slower than they did during the previous month, while preliminary reports for November show that consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell.
If you look closely you can see why consumers are pulling in their horns.
For one thing, personal incomes are barely growing as businesses have trimmed hours worked and cut wages and salaries. For another, employment continues to fall as the jobless rate edges ever closer to the postwar record of 10.8% set in November 1982.
The duration of unemployment as a percent of the labor force is the highest in at least a quarter of a century. More people are being forced to work part-time and/or beneath their skill level while the job openings rate is the lowest in recent memory.
This will continue as long as business can rely on increased productivity and outsourcing to take care of its needs.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
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Hope & Change Bitches!
Lets focus on Palin instead!
